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Mikko-央行应该使用借贷便利工具(SLF、MLF)作为主要的宽松手段吗? – Wisburg Lab
Wisburg Lab 宏观研究者的归宿

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Mikko-央行应该使用借贷便利工具(SLF、MLF)作为主要的宽松手段吗?

在今年5月,见智研究所在一篇文章中指出:

在联储的资产端当中,还有Loans(信贷)这一项,通过Discount Window(贴现窗口),联储可以向银行提供流动性支持(利率高于基准利率,目前为75个基点),同样是在危机期间,美联储通过贴现窗口向金融体系供应流动性,而随着QE的推出,这一项的规模也是萎缩到接近0的水平。值得一提的是,贴现窗口的性质类似于欧洲央行的常备借贷便利工具,中国人民银行近期的流动性投放形式非常依赖于常备借贷便利工具,也就是Lending Facility,这使得人民银行资产端中“对存款性公司债权”一项的上升明显,几乎对冲掉了外储的下降规模。

欧洲央行董事会市场操作主管Ulrich Bindseil曾在其研究中指出:“央行提供常备借贷便利工具的目的是为了涵盖非预期的潜在流动性需求,但这类需求被长期满足后,银行体系很容易将之视为一种长期稳定的结构性工具,从而纳入到自身的流动性管理考量中(道德风险)”,因此笔者一直认为中国人民银行使用常备借贷便利工具进行的流动性供应操作实际上是进退两难、内外交困环境之下的无奈举动。

而不少研究者与政府官员同样呼吁人民银行应该采用降准的方法来提供流动性。据中国证券网讯,银监会国有重点金融机构监事会主席于学军今日在2016中国网财富管理论坛上建议择机调低银行存款准备金率,适时对由MLF和PSL投放出去的基础货币进行合理有效的切换。

“理由是中国银行业的存款准备金率很高,这些大的银行仍然保持在17.5%。”于学军说,中期借贷便利(MLF)和抵押补充贷款(PSL)这些新兴政策工具更易于在准备金率降到低位之后使用,而不是在之前大量使用。

我们重新更新了中国人民银行资产端下“对存款性公司债权”(涵盖常备借贷便利工具的余额)以及“外汇”(主要是美元)两项,从图中可知,2015年以来这两项的变化有相互冲销之态势。

笔者在2014年底的一篇文章中提到:

常备融资(借贷)便利被视为极重要的货币政策工具之一,是一种可定向的结构性流动性调控工具,一般以抵押形式发放(以中国央行为例——合格抵押品包括高信用评级的债券类资产及优质信贷资产等;必要时也可采取信用借款方式发放。笔者至今都不明白为什么要把SLF和其他类型的公开市场操作区分开来(如果硬要做出区分的话,SLF应该归为被动型的数量型政策,最终还得通过金融机构根据自身流动性的情况来做出是否申请的决定)。SLF被视为控制短期利率,并熨平其波动的利器——既为了金融稳定性及提供流动性,该工具与紧急流动性援助的界限也不很明显(在中国犹是如此)。对于中央银行而言,SLF的运用太过频繁(或者太廉价)等同于变相鼓励银行在准备金的管理上更激进。 对于SLF,货币主义者持负面观点,弗里德曼曾经批评过SLF;此外,米什金也认为该类贴现政策不值得提倡。这两位都是公开市场操作(央行主导而非银行发起)为主导的货币政策的支持者,弗里德曼认为公开市场操作也可以抑制市场利率的极端波动。(对于货币主义者而言,中央银行根本不应该做出被动防御性的决策)可见,常备借贷便利工具的运用不应该成为一种日常性的流动性管理,应当作为一种应对未预期到的大幅流动性需求波动及利率波动的工具。需要惩罚性的利率溢价,以避免银行体系的整体依赖。

我们很难揣摩人民银行是如何在各类宽松手段之间做出抉择的。一方面利率走廊体系(利率下限体系)仍处于摸索建立之中,比如近期新近推出的DR利率,而常备借贷便利工具实为当下的利率上轨。当下有一种方法通常以常备借贷便利工具的规模来测算这类操作“等同于多少次降准”实际上是一种错误的方法,因为直接降低准备金率与常备借贷便利工具对于银行体系而言有着实质性的差异:

在期限问题上,准备金率的降低所解放的是银行的法定准备金部分,转变为超额准备金,这类资产对于银行而言是不存在有期限的流出压力的(除非央行调整准备金率)。但是,常备借贷便利工具存在期限(虽然可以做回滚操作)。

在对手方以及发起方问题上,准备金率的降低是普惠于所有银行的(央行发起),而常备借贷工具的对手方较少(理论上由银行发起)。

在抵押品问题上,准备金率直接解放银行的准备金,而常备借贷便利工具-超额准备金量的同时扩张,需要银行置出合格的抵押物。

此外,美联储的研究中还提到使用常备借贷便利工具的“污点效应”,既当银行向央行寻求借贷便利工具的流动性援助时,在危机期间会被市场视为自身处于流动性压力之中的信号。而准备金率的降低则是“匿名”的。

因此,笔者认为,央行以借贷便利工具替代掉降准,实质上是一种流动性顶层的期限错配,这意味着央行更愿意创造短期资产(对应增加银行的超额准备金),而银行作为该操作的债务人,债权人缩短其资金供应的久期实质上会加速影响到债务人的资产配置决策以及风险管理策略(比如应对LCR以及NSFR等监管指标)。耶鲁大学教授Gary Bernard Gorton曾在其对2008年金融危机期间银行负债期限的变化分析中提到:

Why did the failure of Lehman Brothers make the financial crisis dramatically worse? The financial crisis was a process of a build-up of risk during the crisis prior to the Lehman failure. During the crisis market participants tried to preserve an option to withdraw by shortening maturities — the “flight from maturity”. This flight from maturity was manifested in a steepening of the term structures of spreads in money markets. With increasingly short maturities, lenders created the possibility of fast exit. The failure of Lehman Brothers was the tipping point of this build-up of systemic fragility. “Tail risk” is endogenous.

危机期间,市场参与者为了保留收回其资金的权利而选择降低借款期限——也就是“逃离期限”。最终引发了期限结构的陡峭化。

During a crisis banks want to lock-in longer term funding and so they offer to pay a higher rate for longer maturity borrowing, and a lower rate for shorter maturities. But, lenders prefer to lend short because of their concerns about the solvency of borrowers; they want an exit option which means a short maturity. In other words, lenders care about shortening the maturity – the flight from maturity– since they are concerned about being in a position to get their cash at very short notice.

在危机期间,银行倾向于锁定长期限的融资,因此才为之付出更高的利率,而短期融资则付出较低的利率。但出借者担心借款者的清偿力才选择降低出借期限,他们想要随时得以脱身(变现)。

而当下人行通过较贵的“最后贷款人工具”——借贷便利工具来提供短中期限的流动性,相比于直接提供无期限的流动性,银行在考虑匹配资产负债表(避免过度期限错配)时也会因为负债久期而受到影响,改变其资产端的配置倾向。虽然说银行同样可能会使用长期负债来进行短期的资产配置,但至少准备金率的降低没有消除掉银行长期资产形成的可能性(比如长期贷款,有助于资本开支)。而短中期的借贷便利工具是直接消除了银行扩大长期资产的可能,这些流动性可能通过银行-非银的传导机制服务非银机构的各类短期限业务,也可能直接变为银行的短期资产。而这种短期化实际上是一种内生风险的积聚。

因此,笔者认为,于学军老师的表态正在传递一种信号,这种信号未必可以影响到货币政策决策,但已经相当直观地暴露了银行的真正的需求——长期流动性。

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