快评:美联储2019年1月FOMC会议纪要的细节

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精要

  1. 政策利率已经接近中性水平的下沿,表态加息空间不大
  2. 强调政策基于经济前景(数据),尤其是就业及通胀
  3. 明确提及在下半年结束缩表的可能性。
  4. 提及将MBS的偿付本金再投资到美国国债当中(资产结构变化)
  5. 有与会者建议联储提供利率上限便利工具

有关加息以及联邦基金利率的合意水平

Participants noted that maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate for a time posed few risks at this point. The current level of the federal funds rate was at the lower end of the range of estimates of the neutral policy rate. Moreover, inflation pressures were muted, and asset valuations were less stretched than they had been a few months earlier. Many participants suggested that it was not yet clear what adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate later this year; several of these participants argued that rate increases might prove necessary only if inflation outcomes were higher than in their baseline outlook. Several other participants indicated that, if the economy evolved as they expected, they would view it as appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate later this year.

与会者指出,暂时维持联邦基金利率的当前目标区间带来的风险有限。目前的联邦基金利率水平处于中性政策利率估算范围的下沿水平。此外,通胀压力不大,资产估值也不像几个月前那么高。许多与会者表示,目前尚不清楚在今年晚些时候对联邦基金利率目标范围进行调整是否适当;其中几位与会者认为,只有在通胀高于基线展望的情况下,加息才算是必要的。其他几位与会者表示,如果经济按预期发展,他们认为今年晚些时候提高联邦基金利率的目标区间是适当的。

有关框架变化与资产负债表政策

The staff noted that the Committee had previously indicated that, in the longer run, it intends to operate with no more securities holdings than necessary to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively. In considering the effectiveness of the operating regime, the staff observed that over recent years, the Federal Reserve had been able to implement monetary policy in an environment with ample reserves by adjusting administered rates–including the rates on required and excess reserve balances and the offered rate at the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility–without needing to actively manage the supply of reserves. Over this period, the effective federal funds rate was generally steady at levels well within the Committee’s target range despite substantial changes in the level of reserves in the banking system and significant changes in money markets, regulations, and financial institutions’ business models. In addition, other money market rates generally moved closely with the federal funds rate. The current regime was therefore effective both in providing control of the policy rate and in ensuring transmission of the policy stance to other rates and broader financial markets.

工作人员指出,委员会此前曾表示,长期来看,在有效且高效实施货币政策的必要性以外,委员会不打算增加美联储的证券持有量(国债、MBS)。在考虑这一货币政策操作机制的有效性时,工作人员指出,最近几年,美联储足以通过调整管制利率——包括IOER利率和ONRRP利率——得以在准备金充裕的环境下有效实施了货币政策,而无需积极管理准备金的供应量。在此期间,联邦基金利率总体上稳定于委员会的目标区间内,尽管银行体系的准备金水平发生了重大变化,且货币市场、监管政策以及金融机构的业务模式也有变化。此外,其他货币市场利率通常与联邦基金利率保持着密切联动关系。因此,现有的范式既能控制政策利率,又能确保将政策立场传导至其他利率和更广泛的金融市场。

The aggregate level of reserves had already declined by $1.2 trillion from a peak level of $2.8 trillion reached in October 2014; the decline stemmed from both reductions in asset holdings and increases in nonreserve liabilities such as Federal Reserve notes in circulation. Some recent survey information and other evidence suggested that reserves might begin to approach an efficient level later this year. Against this backdrop, the staff presented options for substantially slowing the decline in reserves by ending the reduction in asset holdings at some point over the latter half of this year and thereafter holding the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time so that the average level of reserves would fall at a very gradual pace reflecting the trend growth in other Federal Reserve liabilities.

准备金总量已经相比2014年10月的2.8万亿美元的峰值水平下降了1.2万亿美元;减少的原因是美联储的资产持有量减少,以及流通中的美元现钞等非准备金负债项的增长。最近的一些调查信息和其他证据表明,准备金可能会在今年晚些时候开始接近高效(均衡?)水平。在此背景下,工作人员提出了大幅减缓准备金进一步减少的备选方案,即在今年下半年结束联储的资产持有量缩减(结束缩表),此后将SOMA投资组合的规模大致保持不变,以使准备金的平均水平以非常渐进的速度下降,从而表明其他美联储负债的趋势性增长。

The staff also described options for communicating plans both for the operating regime and for the completion of the normalization of the size of the balance sheet. If the Committee reached a decision to continue using its current operating regime, announcing this decision after the current meeting would help reduce uncertainty about both the long-run implementation framework and the likely evolution of the balance sheet. In addition, the Committee could revise its previous communications to make clear that it was flexible in its approach to normalizing the balance sheet and was prepared to change the details of its balance sheet normalization plans in light of economic and financial developments if necessary to support the FOMC’s broader policy goals. The staff noted that, after the end of asset redemptions, the Desk could reinvest principal payments received from holdings of agency MBS in Treasury securities as directed.

工作人员还描述了用于传达货币政策操作制度和终结资产负债表规模正常化计划的选项。如果委员会决定继续使用目前的操作制度,在本次会议之后宣布这项决定将有助于减少关于长期执行框架和资产负债表可能演变的不确定性。此外,委员会可以修订其先前的论调,以表明它在实现资产负债表正常化的做法上是可行的,并准备根据经济和必要的额外发展情况改变其资产负债表正常化计划的细节,以支持FOMC更广泛的政策目标。工作人员指出,在资产赎回终结后,纽联储操作台可以按照指示,重新将从MBS偿付收回到的本金投资到美国国债当中

Participants noted some of the key advantages of the Federal Reserve’s current operating regime, including good control of the policy rate in a variety of conditions and good transmission to other money market rates and broader financial markets. They observed that a regime that controlled the policy rate through active management of the supply of reserves likely would have disadvantages. In particular, the level and variability of reserve demand and supply were likely to be much larger than in the period before the crisis, and stabilizing the policy rate in this environment would require large and frequent open market operations.

与会者指出了美联储当前货币政策操作机制的一些主要优势,包括在各种条件下对政策利率进行良好控制,并向其他货币市场利率和更广泛的金融市场很好地传导。他们指出,通过积极管理准备金供应来控制政策利率的制度可能具有不利条件。特别是,准备金需求和供应的水平和变化很可能比危机前的时期大得多,稳定这种环境中的政策利率将需要大量和经常地公开市场操作。

Participants judged that, in light of their extensive previous discussions, it was now appropriate to provide the public with more certainty that the Federal Reserve would continue to use its current operating regime.

与会者认为,鉴于他们先前进行的广泛讨论,现在应该向公众提供更明确的信息,即美联储将继续使用其现行的货币政策操作制度。

Participants discussed market commentary that suggested that the process of balance sheet normalization might be influencing financial markets. Participants noted that the ongoing reduction in the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings had proceeded smoothly for more than a year, with no significant effects on financial markets. The gradual reduction in securities holdings had been announced well in advance and, as intended, was proceeding largely in the background, with the federal funds rate remaining the Committee’s primary tool for adjusting the stance of policy. Nonetheless, some investors might have interpreted previous communications as indicating that a very high threshold would have to be met before the Committee would be willing to adjust its balance sheet normalization plans. Participants observed that, although the target range for the federal funds rate was the Committee’s primary means of adjusting the stance of policy, the balance sheet normalization process should proceed in a way that supports the achievement of the Federal Reserve’s dual- mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. Consistent with this principle, participants agreed that it was important to be flexible in managing the process of balance sheet normalization, and that it would be appropriate to adjust the details of balance sheet normalization plans in light of economic and financial developments if necessary to achieve the Committee’s macroeconomic objectives.

与会者讨论了一些市场的评论观点——即认为资产负债表正常化过程可能在影响金融市场。与会者指出,美联储资产持有量的持续下降已经持续一年有余,没有丝毫迹象显示缩表对市场带来了影响。美联储提前预告了逐步的证券缩减计划,而且按部就班地在幕后推进缩表,联邦基金利率仍然是委员会调整政策立场的主要工具。然而,一些投资者可能认为以前的沟通表明,在委员会愿意调整其资产负债表正常化计划之前,必须达到很高的门槛。与会者指出,虽然联邦基金利率的目标范围是委员会调整政策立场的主要手段,但资产负债表正常化进程应以有助于实现美联储实现最高就业和稳定价格的双重任务目标的方式进行。根据这一原则,与会者一致认为,在资产负债表正常化管理过程中联储拥有灵活性,并且应当根据经济和必要的发展,为了实现委员会的宏观经济目标,调整资产负债表正常化计划的细节也是合理的

Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings later this year. Such an announcement would provide more certainty about the process for completing the normalization of the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. A substantial majority expected that when asset redemptions ended, the level of reserves would likely be somewhat larger than necessary for efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy; if so, many suggested that some further very gradual decline in the average level of reserves, reflecting the trend growth of other liabilities such as Federal Reserve notes in circulation, could be appropriate. In these participants’ view, this process would allow the Federal Reserve to arrive slowly at an efficient level of reserves while maintaining good control of short-term interest rates without needing to engage in more frequent open market operations. A few participants judged that there would be little benefit to allowing reserves to continue to fall after the end of redemptions or that this approach could have costs, such as an undue risk of volatility in short-term interest rates, that would exceed its benefits. These participants thought that upon ending asset redemptions, the Federal Reserve should begin adding to its assets to offset growth in nonreserve liabilities, so as to keep the average level of reserves relatively stable. A couple of participants suggested that a ceiling facility to mitigate temporary unexpected pressures in reserve markets could play a useful role in supporting policy implementation at lower levels of reserves.

几乎所有与会者都认为,在不久的将来(今年晚些时候)宣布停止减持美联储资产的计划是可取的。这一声明将为终结美联储资产负债表规模正常化进程提供更多确定性。绝大多数人预计,在资产赎回终止后,准备金可能会比货币政策有效执行所需的水平大一些;如果确实如此,许多人认为准备金平均水平的进一步逐步下降,包括美元现钞等其他负债的趋势增长,可能是合适的。这些与会者认为,这一进程将使美联储能够缓慢地达到一个有效的准备金水平,同时保持对短期利率的良好控制,而不必更频繁地进行公开市场操作。一些与会者认为,允许准备金在资产赎回结束后继续下降没什么好处,或者这种方法会有代价,比如短期利率波动的不当风险,超过了它可能带来的好处。这些与会者认为,在结束资产赎回后,美联储应该开始增加其资产,将非准备金负债的增长水平设定为资产负债表的扩张目标,以保持准备金平均水平的相对稳定。一些与会者建议,为减轻准备金市场临时的意外压应当提供利率上限便利工具(机制),可在支持较低准备金水平的政策执行方面发挥有益的作用。

Participants commented that, in light of the Committee’s longstanding plan to hold primarily Treasury securities in the long run, it would be appropriate once asset redemptions end to reinvest most, if not all, principal payments received from agency MBS in Treasury securities. Some thought that continuing to reinvest agency MBS principal payments in excess of $20 billion per month in agency MBS, as under the current balance sheet normalization plan, would simplify communications or provide a helpful backstop against scenarios in which large declines in long-term interest rates caused agency MBS prepayment speeds to increase sharply. However, some others judged that retaining the cap on agency MBS redemptions was unnecessary at this stage in the normalization process. These participants noted considerations in support of this view, including that principal payments were unlikely to reach the $20 billion level after 2019, that the cap could slightly slow the return to a portfolio of primarily Treasury securities, or that the Committee would have the flexibility to adjust the details of its balance sheet normalization plans in light of economic and financial developments. Participants commented that it would be important over time to develop and communicate plans for reinvesting agency MBS principal payments, and they expected to continue their discussion of balance sheet normalization and related issues at upcoming meetings.

与会者评论说,鉴于委员会长期计划主要持有财政部证券(国债),一旦资产赎回结束后,将大部分(不是全部)从MBS收到的本金偿付款再投资于美国国债将是适当的。一些与会者认为,按照目前的资产负债表正常化计划,继续将每月超过200亿美元的MBS本金再投资于MBS,将简化沟通,或针对长期利率大幅下降导致机构MBS的提前偿付速度大幅提高的情形提供有益的支持。然而,另一些与会者认为,在目前的正常化阶段,没有必要保留对MBS的赎回上限。这些与会者注意到支持这一观点的各种因素,包括本金支付在2019年后不太可能达到200亿美元的水平,上限也因此无法放慢美联储回归主要由国债组成的投资组合的速度,或者委员会相信鉴于经济和金融方面的发展,委员会就有必要调整其资产负债表正常化计划的细节。与会者评论说,随着时间的推移,必须制定和传达MBS本金再投资的计划,他们希望在即将举行的会议上继续讨论资产负债表正常化以及相关问题。

如果你对更多美联储资产负债表政策的专业名字与细节感兴趣,欢迎阅读我们过往的报告:

《联储官方研究论文解读缩表机制与影响》可在搜索引擎搜索获得报告pdf,发表于前东家华尔街见闻。

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