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中央银行政治学——2017年的主旋律?

如果将近期全球央行相关的新闻进行搜集整理,你可能会发现,市场的目光仍然停滞在2017年联储的加息时间表以及欧洲央行与日央行的资产购买计划限度之上,相较之下,那些政治风险相关的信息则更抓人眼球。两分法思维总是引导着我们将“财政”与“货币”割裂开来,一方面紧盯着央行的政策目标、市场预期与非常规货币政策;另一头,则又不能忽视“特朗普”和早已被嚼烂的“欧洲政治风险”。 连接财政与货币的是伯南克的“直升机撒钱”,但显然,“直升机撒钱”(货币化的财政融资)向来被视为一种“噱头”。正统经济学的主张仍然是一切经 . . . 继续阅读

怎样摆脱流动性陷阱?

本文节选自Paul McCulley(PIMCO)以及Zoltan Pozsar的论文Does Central Bank Independence Frustrate the Optimal Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Liquidity Trap? 译者认为,该论文这一小节对流动性陷阱的诠释最令译者信服,通过对流动性陷阱-去杠杆-经济衰退-通缩循环的描述延展至了“直升机撒钱”政策的必要性。 流动性陷阱的经典定义是:“短期名义利率触及零利率下限(Zero Lo . . . 继续阅读

伯南克-缩减联储资产负债表

Mikko对该文进行翻译的原因如下: 我在去年的时候翻译了伯南克的另一篇有关资产负债表规模的文章Should the Fed keep its balance sheet large?。本文可以说是对这一话题的延续。 在不久前的一片文章内,我提到了近期缩表的几大明确信息(1)联储从宣布缩表到实施缩表会有时间差(伯南克Taper Tantrum)。(2)相比于主动缩表,联储倾向于被动缩表(停止到期再投资),如果进行主动缩表,那么联储就不得不在二级市场卖出资产,如果市场波动加大,则会存在财务风险。( . . . 继续阅读

智堡每日阅读笔记20170117

巴克莱:企业税降低有助于企业去杠杆 巴克莱预计美国企业税率将降至15%或20%,海外利润汇回政策将于今年夏季得到通过。降低税率将增加企业用于偿债的现金流,从而提高信贷质量。同时,债务的税盾下降,这会促进企业降低杠杆。 通过使用了不同国家跨行业的数据和美国实行不同税率的各时期数据来估计杠杆对税率的敏感性。结果表明,如果企业税率从35%下降至20%,企业杠杆将下降25%(即从4倍下降至3倍)。 杠杆降低主要由工业行业驱动,过程可能长达十年。一旦企业的杠杆下降,企业债市场发行量会下降,利差会收紧近40 . . . 继续阅读

智堡每日阅读笔记20170116

野村:BOJ买短期国债效果更好。 由于BoJ购买长期和超长期国债以压低利率的做法并没有对实体经济产生积极效果,如果BoJ想要维持宽松以达到2%通胀目标,野村认为BoJ会更注重于压低短期国债收益率,因此日债收益率曲线可能趋陡。 在BoJ在对其货币政策的评估提到,货币宽松对实体经济有积极作用,但是其效果随着国债到期期限变长而下降,且1-2年期的国债购买对提振经济的作用最大。原因可能是短期收益率下降使得银行贷款利率下降,刺激企业借款需求。同时,由于企业存款增加,银行提供贷款的意愿上升。此外,长期和超长 . . . 继续阅读

Mikko-OFR-理解金融体系的流动性供需机制:第四部分-金融体系有多脆弱?

系统性(风险)事件通常以两种形式出现。基于资产的“大甩卖”,即发生在当市场某一部门的压力使资产价值贬值,且这些资产的所有者被迫出售这些资产时;基于资金的“大甩卖”,即当杠杆金融实体的资金来源被削减,迫使其减少其贷款或出售其资产时。如果杠杆金融实体依赖耐久性不足的资金来源,那么它必须提取流动性来偿还债务。这降低了该实体的信誉度,导致进一步的资金和流动性紧张。如果实体违约,持有违约实体抵押品的债权人将持有的抵押物出售,以回收他们欠的现金。正如基于资产的“大甩卖”一样,这通常还会传导至其他金融体系内原 . . . 继续阅读

东京交易厅-日本美元荒困顿何解?

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