科雷四部曲之一:欧洲央行资产购买计划的国际维度

2019/02/23 21:27
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认为大型发达经济体的资产购买计划助长了有害的货币战争的观点是误导性的。货币政策这一维度不是各国央行交战并争夺优势的领域。

资产购买计划有助于在主要经济体处于有效利率下限约束的条件中放松货币政策。大量证据表明,这些政策成功地刺激了经济增长和通胀前景。与此同时,它们显然通过资本流动和相对资产价格变动对其他国家产生了溢出效应。

The evidence does not suggest, however, that these capital flows have led to major exchange rate movements. Rather, exchange rates have responded to forward-looking interest rate differentials. Asset purchase programmes, together with negative interest rates, may have exacerbated those differentials through signalling and non-linear effects, but their effect on exchange rates is, by and large, not fundamentally different from conventional policy.

然而,证据并未表明这些资本流动已经导致了汇率的大幅波动。相反,汇率对前瞻利率差做出了回应。资产购买计划,加上负利率,可能通过信号和非线性效应来加剧了前瞻利差,但它们对汇率的影响大体和常规政策没有根本差异。

What is more, currency depreciation is a side-effect of policy and neither its main transmission channel, nor its objective. Monetary policy actions aimed at supporting domestic price stability objectives in advanced economies have been clearly positive for the global economy, mainly by stimulating employment, incomes and, ultimately, economic growth.

此外,货币贬值是政策的副作用,既不是主要的传导渠道,也并非政策的目标。旨在支持发达经济体国内价格稳定目标的货币政策行动显然对全球经济有利,主要是刺激就业、收入,并最终刺激经济增长。

This is particularly the case in the euro area, which, thanks to a rich set of carefully calibrated monetary policy measures, is now adding to, rather than subtracting from, global growth. In this sense, the view that asset purchase programmes in large advanced economies have encouraged harmful currency wars is misleading. The world of monetary policy is not an arena where central banks engage and compete for advantage.

欧元区的情况尤其如此,由于一系列精心调整的货币政策措施,欧元区正在增加而不是减少全球增长。从这个意义上说,认为大型发达经济体的资产购买计划助长了有害的货币战争的观点是误导性的。货币政策这一维度不是各国央行交战并争夺优势的领域。

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Mapei
2021/08/21 22:41
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