Running a trade deficit is nothing new for the United States. Indeed, it has run a persistent trade deficit since the 1970s—but it also did throughout most of the 19th century. Figure 1 shows the U.S. goods trade balance as a percent of GDP (gross domestic product) from 1800 to 2018. From 1800-1870, the United States ran a trade deficit for all but three years and the trade balance averaged about –2.2 percent of GDP. Then from 1870-1970, it ran persistent trade surpluses that averaged about 1.1 percent of GDP. Starting in about 1970, the United States began to run trade deficits again, which have continued to this day. These shifts in the long-term U.S. trade balance appear to correspond well with U.S. industrialization in a global setting.

贸易逆差对美国来说并不是什么新鲜事。事实上，自20世纪70年代以来，它一直存在持续的贸易逆差，和19世纪的大部分时间一样。图1显示1800年到2018年间，美国商品贸易余额占国内生产总值（GDP）的百分比。从1800年至1870年，美国的贸易逆差（有三年除外）平均约为GDP的2.2％。然后从1870年到1970年，它持续存在贸易顺差，平均约为GDP的1.1％。从大约1970年开始，美国再次开始出现贸易逆差，这一直持续到今天。长期美国贸易平衡的这些变化似乎与全球环境下的美国工业化很好地吻合。