美联储2021年9月议息会议纪要笔记

2021/10/14 15:12
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联储内部对通胀与就业的看法都出现了分歧

部分笔记内容为原文简译,部分为译者的重新编排。

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金融市场与公开市场操作部分

……median respondents to the Open Market Desk's Survey of Primary Dealers marked down projections for gross domestic product (GDP) growth and revised up projections for inflation this year.

(有关经济基本面)一级交易商下调了对今年GDP的预测,而上调了对通胀的预测。

……market participants noted policymaker communications suggesting that tapering of asset purchases could begin this year and end by mid-2022. Around half of respondents to the Desk's surveys of primary dealers and market participants viewed December as the most likely timing of the first reduction in the net pace of purchases, al­though respondents also attached significant probability to the first reduction coming in November. Median expectations for the pace of net purchases were consistent with a gradual tapering of net purchases being completed in July of next year, about one to two months earlier than in the previous surveys. Expectations for the target federal funds rate based on survey responses and interest rate futures moved up slightly since the previous meeting.

(有关货币政策预期)市场参与者预期Taper会在今年开始而在2022年中终结。预期Taper于12月启动,也可能提前到11月,预计8个月完成,节奏相比于之前的调查提前了约1到2个月。此外,对加息的预期有升温。

Investors remained focused on other vulnerabilities in emerging markets, and concerns had grown recently about the possible implications of developments in China.

(对新兴市场的关注)投资者在关注新兴市场的脆弱性,而最近尤为关注中国

Market participants were attentive over the period to negotiations on the debt limit. Yields on Treasury bills maturing in mid-October to mid-November had become modestly elevated as investors reduced exposures to securities that could be at risk for delayed payments.

(有关债务上限)市场参与者对债务上限谈判很关注。10月中旬到11月中旬到期的国债收益率略有上升,投资者减少了对可能有延迟支付风险的证券的风险敞口。

对经济状况的评估

The information available at the time of the September 21–22 meeting suggested that U.S. real GDP was increasing in the third quarter at a slower pace than in the second quarter of the year. The pace of improvement in labor market conditions had remained very rapid in July but slowed sharply in August. Consumer price inflation in June and July—as measured by the 12 month percentage change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was elevated.

(总体经济状况)今年三季度经济增长比二季度慢,就业市场7月好但8月急剧放缓,6、7月通胀还是很高。

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased sharply in July but rose much less rapidly in August, with job gains in the leisure and hospitality sector slowing to zero. In addition, state and local government employment was reported to have fallen in August, though abnormal seasonal swings had likely distorted recent readings for this sector. As of August, total payroll employment had retraced three-fourths of the losses seen at the onset of the pandemic. The unemployment rate had declined from 5.9 percent in June to 5.2 percent in August; although the unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics had also declined, on net, over this period, both rates remained well above the national average. The labor force participation rate edged up, on net, and the employment-to-population (EPOP) ratio rose further in July and August. Private-sector job openings, as measured by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, increased further in July and continued to suggest that labor demand was extraordinarily high. Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance remained near the pandemic-period low that had been reached in early September but were still somewhat elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. Weekly estimates of private-sector payrolls constructed by the Board's staff using data provided by the payroll processor ADP that were available through early September pointed to a modest pickup in the pace of private employment gains relative to August.

Average hourly earnings for all employees rose strongly in July and August, with gains that were widespread across industries. Recent monthly increases in average hourly earnings appeared to reflect a combination of continued strong labor demand and increased difficulties in hiring. A staff measure of the 12-month change in the median wage derived from the ADP data had also pointed to strong wage growth, with a pace in August that was well above the growth rates seen before the pandemic. By contrast, the Wage Growth Tracker measure constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta had not shown a similar pickup. The employment cost index of hourly compensation in the private sector, which also includes benefit costs, rose at an annual rate of 3.6 percent over the 6 months ending in June, 1 percentage point faster than the 12‑month change posted in December 2020.

(就业市场)这一整段比较完整地展示了联储评估就业市场复苏所参考的数据。

首先是看结构,8月的放缓是因为服务业(休闲/酒店)增长归零。而州和地方就业人数的放缓是季节性波动的扭曲所致

其二,就业人数,已经收复四分之三的失地

其三,看失业率的下降。会议时为5.2%,目前最新的数据已经降到了4.8%(9月份经济预测的水平)

其四,考虑到“广泛的就业复苏”,看不同族裔的失业率。非裔美国人和西班牙裔的失业率也有所下降。

其五,看劳动参与率和就业人口比(EPOP)。7、8月都是好转的。

其六,看JOLTS数据,劳动力需求仍然很高,参考职位空缺以及初请失业金等数据。

其七,联储根据ADP数据来估算私人部门就业。

最后,看工资——平均时薪,7、8月持续广泛性地上升。反映了劳动力需求火热以及招聘困难。

从ADP数据中得出的12个月工资中位数变化,8月非常强劲,远高于疫情前。此外还参考亚特兰大联储的WGT和ECI。

Inflation, as measured by either the PCE price index or the consumer price index (CPI), had been boosted by a surge in demand as the economy reopened further, along with the effects of production bottlenecks and supply constraints. Total PCE price inflation was 4.2 percent over the 12 months ending in July, and core PCE price inflation, which excludes changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer food prices, was 3.6 percent over the 12 months ending in July. In contrast, the trimmed mean measure of 12‑month PCE inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was 2.0 percent in July. In August, the 12-month change in the CPI was 5.3 percent, while the core CPI rose 4.0 percent over the same period. In the third quarter of 2021, the staff's common inflation expectations index, which combines information from many indicators of inflation expectations and inflation compensation, was little changed relative to the second quarter and was near its average over the decade before the pandemic.

Although real PCE declined in July, the components of retail sales used to estimate PCE rose strongly in August, returning to levels seen in the spring. However, concerns about the course of the pandemic appeared to be weighing on consumer services spending, as available indicators pointed to a slowing in demand for services sensitive to social distancing. In addition, measures of consumer confidence had moved lower in August. Demand for housing appeared to have remained very strong, but incoming data suggested that materials shortages and a lack of developed lots for construction were restraining residential building activity.

(通胀情况)看PCE和CPI,仍然高企,再看达拉斯联储的截尾平均PCE通胀,最后看通胀预期。看结构,房地产很强劲,因为短缺问题影响了供给。

Available indicators suggested that growth in business fixed investment was slowing somewhat in the third quarter as supply bottlenecks—particularly for motor vehicles—weighed on business equipment spending.

Manufacturing output rose strongly in July and ticked up further in August. In August, activity in the oil and gas sector and production of petrochemicals had been held down by shutdowns related to Hurricane Ida. Supply chain issues faced by a number of other industries also continued to be a drag on overall factory output.

Total real government purchases appeared to be increasing in the third quarter after having moved lower in the second quarter. Available data suggested that federal nondefense purchases were declining sharply in the third quarter but that robust gains in real state and local purchases were offsetting this decline.

The U.S. international trade deficit remained high in July. After rising in June, real goods imports fell back in July, held down by a sizable decline in consumer goods imports, but the levels of consumer and total goods imports remained well above pre-COVID-19 levels. Real goods exports edged up in July and were close to pre-pandemic levels. Bottlenecks in the global semiconductor industry continued to weigh on exports and imports of automotive products, and shipping congestion continued to restrain trade overall. Exports and imports of services rose again in July, but they remained low relative to pre-pandemic levels, largely because international travel was still depressed.

In the advanced foreign economies (AFEs), where high vaccination rates had increased resilience to COVID-19 outbreaks, incoming data were consistent with economic growth in the third quarter at a slightly faster pace than in the second quarter. With the economic reopening under way, purchasing managers indexes for both manufacturing and services remained strong in Europe and Canada. Conversely, in emerging market economies (EMEs)—especially in Southeast Asia, where vaccination rates were lower—a global resurgence in COVID-19 infections due to the Delta variant led to renewals of public health restrictions. These restrictions weakened retail sales and contributed to labor shortages and transportation congestion, disrupting global supply chains. Inflation abroad was elevated, reflecting reversals of price declines early in the pandemic, past increases in energy and commodity prices, upward pressures from supply bottlenecks, and past exchange rate depreciations in some EMEs.

(怎么看实体经济?)供应瓶颈影响了固定资产投资,能源行业受到了飓风艾达的停工干扰。其他一些行业则仍然受到了供应链问题的拖累。

政府采购,联邦的支出在三季度下降,但是州和地方的增长对冲了这部分。

再看贸易,进口维持高位,半导体的供应瓶颈拖累汽车进出口,堵船也限制了整体的贸易。服务业进出口有恢复,但是因为旅游低迷的问题,还是比疫情前差很多。

海外的经济状况,有分化,因为疫苗注射的原因,欧洲、美洲经济体都很强,但是新兴市场就相对比较弱,还影响了全球供应链

对金融状况的评估

On September 20, stock market prices fell notably and speculative-grade yield spreads widened amid rising concerns about the creditworthiness of a Chinese property developer, but these moves were mostly reversed during the following day, particularly in the stock market.

提到了一家中国的地产公司……

Excluding PPP loans, C&I loan balances were estimated to have been largely unchanged between June and July.

工商企业贷款在6月和7月之间基本没有变化

Survey-based indicators suggest small business owners, especially from COVID-sensitive sectors that include lodging and food services, arts, entertainment and recreation, and educational services, became more pessimistic about their financial prospects, largely because of a worsening of near-term expectations for sales and general business conditions. Small business loan originations were above pre-pandemic levels in June and July, but increased concerns about the Delta variant depressed loan demand in August.

小企业主,尤其是服务业的小企业主,对财务前景变得更加悲观了……

对经济的看法中……

围绕通货膨胀预测的风险偏向于上行,更严重且持续的供应问题的可能性很大。长期通胀预期有可能明显提高,并导致通胀持续上升。

与会者对当前经济状况和经济前景的看法

对就业市场的判断已经出现了一些分歧。

Some participants noted that the increase in labor force participation that they had expected had not yet materialized in the wake of the reopening of schools and the expiration of the extended unemployment benefits, and that this likely reflected in part concerns about the resurgence of the virus, childcare challenges, and the uncertainties generated by ongoing disruptions to in-person schooling.

一些与会者指出,在学校重新开学和延长的失业救济金到期后,他们所预期的劳动力参与率的增加并未兑现(9月的数据反而还下滑了)

Participants expected the labor market to continue to improve in coming months. Several participants indicated that a rise in the labor force participation rate might lag the improvements in other indicators such as the unemployment rate—a pattern consistent with past business cycle recoveries. Participants expressed a range of views regarding the extent to which they expected the labor force participation rate and the EPOP ratio would move back to their pre-pandemic levels. Various participants suggested that a complete return to pre-pandemic conditions was unlikely, as the pandemic had prompted reductions in the workforce that were likely to persist, including a large number of retirements and other departures from the labor force. A number of others, however, assessed that once the COVID-related concerns that were currently weighing on labor force participation passed, the participation rate and the EPOP ratio could return to, or even exceed, the pre-pandemic levels. Some participants remarked that the labor market recovery continued to be uneven across demographic and income groups and across sectors, with the recovery being particularly slow for women with young children and people with lower incomes.

一些与会者表示,劳动力参与率的上升可能会滞后于失业率等其他指标的改善——这与过去商业周期复苏的模式一致。

对于他们预期劳动力参与率和EPOP比率会在多大程度上恢复到大流行前的水平,与会者表达了不同的观点(关键问题出现分歧)。

许多与会者认为,完全恢复到大流行前的状况是不可能的,因为大流行促使劳动力的减少,这种减少可能会持续下去,包括大量的退休和其他劳动力的离开。

然而,其他一些人认为,一旦与疫情有关的、目前影响劳动力参与率的问题淡出,参与率和EPOP比率就会恢复,甚至超过疫情前的水平。

Participants noted that their District contacts had broadly reported having difficulty hiring workers. The labor shortages were causing firms to reduce hours and scale back production while also leading employers to provide incentives to attract and retain workers, including wage increases and signing and retention bonuses. The rate of nominal wage growth had been robust in recent data; for example, average hourly earnings were up 4.9 percent at an annualized rate over the past six months.

与会者指出,他们的地区联络人广泛地报告了雇用工人的困难。劳动力短缺导致企业减少工作时间并缩小生产规模,同时也导致雇主提供激励措施来吸引和留住工人(加钱)。

In their discussion of inflation, participants observed that the inflation rate was elevated, and they expected that it would likely remain so in coming months before moderating. Participants marked up their inflation projections, as they assessed that supply constraints in product and labor markets were larger and likely to be longer lasting than previously anticipated. Some participants expressed concerns that elevated rates of inflation could feed through into longer-term inflation expectations of households and businesses or saw recent inflation data as suggestive of broader inflation pressures. Several other participants pointed out that the largest contributors to the recent elevated measures of inflation were a handful of COVID-related, pandemic-sensitive categories in which specific, identifiable bottlenecks were at play. This observation suggested that the upward pressure on prices would abate as the COVID-related demand and supply imbalances subsided. These participants noted that prices in some of those categories showed signs of stabilizing or even turned down of late. Many participants pointed out that the owners' equivalent rent component of price indexes should be monitored carefully, as rising home prices could lead to upward pressure on rents. A few participants noted that there was not yet evidence that robust wage growth was exerting upward pressure on prices to a significant degree, but also that the possibility merited close monitoring.

对通胀的看法,预计在未来几个月内通货膨胀率可能会保持不变,然后才会放缓。与会者提高了他们对通货膨胀的预测,他们认为产品和劳动力市场的供应限制比之前预期的要大,而且可能会持续更长时间

一些与会者表达了对通胀预期的担心,通胀率的上升可能会影响到家庭和企业的长期通胀预期,或认为最近的通胀数据暗指更广泛的通胀压力。

其他几位与会者指出,导致最近通货膨胀率上升的最大因素是少数与疫情有关的且比较敏感的类别,其中有具体的、可识别的供应瓶颈在发挥作用。这一观察表明,随着与疫情相关的供需不平衡的消退,价格上涨的压力将会减弱。这些与会者指出,其中一些类别的价格出现了稳定的迹象,甚至在最近转为下降。

许多与会者指出,要仔细监测物价中的租金上涨压力,此外工资上涨也值得密切关注。

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