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译者：张一苇、阿点，智堡仅保留译文与字幕权利，译文仅供教育目的免费使用，制作：朱尘Mikko

Hi, I'm Bill Ackman. I'm the CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management.

大家好，我是比尔·阿克曼，潘兴广场资产管理公司的CEO

And I'm here today to talk to you about everything you need to know about finance and investing.

今天这堂课我们来聊聊关于金融和投资你需要了解的一切

And I'm gonna get it done in an hour and you'll be ready to go.

我会在一小时之内讲完这堂课，届时你就做好去投资的准备了

So let's begin.

那我们开始吧

In order for you to get a better sense of finance and some of the basic terms associated with a business and investing in a business.

为了让你更好地理解金融，以及一些与企业和投资一家企业相关的基本术语

I'm gonna use the example of a lemonade stand.

我将以一家柠檬水小摊为例

We’re gonna go into business together.

我们要一起经商

We’re gonna open up lemonade soon.

我们的柠檬水小摊即将开张

So the reason why I'm using an example of a lemonade stand

之所以要以柠檬水小摊为例

It is a very simple way to understand the basics of the business

是因为这是理解企业各项基础知识的一种非常浅显的方式

How to understand how our business works

理解公司是如何运作的

How business generates profits

公司是如何产生利润的

What’s involved in raising capital to start a company?

筹措公司的起始资金要涉及哪些方面？

What you do when you're ready to decide to monetize your investment or take some money off the table?

当你想将投资变现或将抽取部分资金时，该做些什么？

You’ll be able to understand each of these concepts

以柠檬水小摊这样的小微初创企业作为浅显的示例

through the very simple lens of a small startup business like a lemonade stand.

你会理解上述的每一个概念

1:03 Starting a business

1:03 创立一家公司

We’re gonna go into business together.

我们要一起经商

We’re gonna start a company.

要创立一家公司

And we're gonna start a lemonade stand.

要开一家柠檬水小摊

And Now I don't have any money today.

在当下我身无分文

So I'm gonna have to raise money from investors to launch the business.

所以得从投资者手上筹到钱，我才能迈出第一步

So how am I gonna do that when I'm going to form a corporation

所以在我准备成立一家企业时，该怎么做才能筹到钱呢？

It’s a little filing that you make with the state and you've come up with a name for your business

你要先到州政府做些备案，并为你的公司取个名字

We’ll call it Billy's lemonade stand

我们就叫它“比利的柠檬水小摊”

And we're gonna raise money from outside investors

然后我们得向外部投资者筹措资金

We need a little money to get started

我们需要这些钱作为起始资金

So we're going to start our business with a thousand shares of stock

因此，在公司创立时我们有1000股

We just made up that number

这个数字多少随我们编

and we sell 500 shares more for $1 each to an investor

再以每股1美元的价格将另外500股卖给一位投资者

And the investor is gonna put up $500

这位投资者出的是这500美元

We’re gonna put up the name and the idea

而我们出的是品牌和想法

We’re gonna have a thousand shares

我们拥有1000股

He’s gonna have 500 shares

而他拥有500股

He’s gonna own a third of the business for his $500

他出资的500美元，给了他这家公司三分之一的所有权

So what's our business worth at the start, it’s worth $1,500

所以我们这家公司的起始价值为1500美元

We have $500 in the bank, plus $1,000 because I came up with the idea for the company

我们有500美元的银行存款，再加上价值1000美元的创业想法

Now we need a little more than $500

但是现在我们需要比500美元更多的钱

So what am I gonna do?

所以我该怎么办呢？

I'm gonna borrow some money and borrow from a friend

我打算向一个朋友借钱

and he's gonna lend me $250 and we're gonna pay him 10% interest a year for that loan

他借给了我250美元，而我们按一年10%向他支付利息

Now why do we borrow money instead of just selling more stock

你会问，为什么我们要借钱，而不是卖出更多的股票呢？

Well, by borrowing money we keep more of the stock for ourselves

原因在于，借钱能让我们为自己留住更大比例的股票

So if the business is successful we're gonna end up with a bigger percentage of the profits

如果这番事业大获成功，我们就能分得更高百分比的利润

2:19 The balance sheet: a snapshot of the company

2:19 资产负债表：企业现状的一张快照

So now we're gonna take a look at what the business looks like on a piece of paper

现在我们要在一张纸上列出企业现状

We’re gonna look at something called a balance sheet.

这张纸就是所谓的资产负债表

Balance sheet tells you where the company stands, what your assets are

资产负债表会告诉你公司的经营状况，都有哪些资产

What your liabilities are and what your net worth or shareholders’ equity is

背负了多少债务，以及公司净值或称股东权益值多少钱

You take your assets, in this case, we've raised five hundred dollars

在本例中，公司资产即为筹得的500美元

in exchange for the five hundred dollars the person who put up the money only got 1/3 of the business

作为交换，出这笔钱的人仅得到了三分之一的公司所有权

The other two-thirds is owned by us for starting the company

创立公司的我们拥有另外三分之二的所有权

Well, that’s a thousand dollars of goodwill for the business

对公司来讲那就是价值1000美元的商誉

We’re borrowed two hundred fifty dollars

我们借了250美元

We’re gonna owe two hundred and fifty dollars, it's a liability

我们欠了250美元，也就是负债

So we've got five hundred dollars in cash from selling stock

所以我们靠卖出股票获得了500美元

Two hundred and fifty dollars from raising debt and we owe $250 loan

靠举债获得了250美元，并欠250美元的贷款

And we have a corporation that has and you'll see on the chart shareholders’ equity of fifteen hundred dollars

从表上可以看出，最终我们这家企业的股东权益为1500美元

（屏幕上方注：权益即一家企业的股权；亦即投资者对企业资产的要求权）

So that's our starting point

而这就是我们的起点

Now let's keep moving

让我们继续下去

3:09 Fixed assets and inventory

3:09 固定资产及存货

What do we need to do to start our company?

公司刚开张需要做哪些工作？

We need lemonade stand

我们需要一家柠檬水摊位

That’s going to cost us about $300.

这要花掉我们大约300美元

That is called a fixed asset.

这被称为固定资产

（屏幕上方注：固定资产即对可产生收入的实物资产的投资）

Unlike lemon or sugar or water, this is something like a building that you buy and you build it.

与柠檬、糖或水不同，固定资产更像是一栋建筑，你是为了建造它而购置它的

It wears out over time, but it’s a fixed asset.

它会随时间推移而老化，但它仍是固定资产

And then you need some inventory.

然后你需要一些存货

What do you need to make lemonade?

柠檬水的制作材料都有什么？

You need sugar. You need water. You need lemons. You need cups.

你需要糖、水、柠檬和杯子

You need little containers and perhaps some napkins and you need enough supplies

你需要小型容器，还可能需要纸巾，你需要确保供应充足

to let’s say have 50 gallons of lemonade in our start of our business.

假设开业之初，我们有50加仑的柠檬水

Now 50 gallons gets us about 800 cups of lemonade

50加仑柠檬水大约可以装800个杯子

And we’re ready to begin.

我们就可以正式开张了

Let’s take a new look at the balance sheet.

再看一眼资产负债表

So now we’ve spent $500 on supplies.

现在我们在供应上花费了500美元

We only have $250 left in the bank, but our fixed assets are now $300.

银行里只剩下250美元，但是我们有了300美元的固定资产

That is our lemonade stand.

那就是我们的柠檬水摊位

Our inventory is $200.

我们的存货是200美元

Those are the supplies and things, the lemons that we need to make the lemonade.

都是我们用来制作柠檬水的各种材料

Goodwill hasn’t changed at 1,000, so our total assets are $1,750

1000美元的商誉不变，所以总资产是1750美元

and we still owe $250 to the person who lent us the money.

我们还是欠着借款人的250美元

Shareholder equity hasn’t changed, so we haven’t made any money.

股东权益不变，所以我们的盈利为零

All we’ve done is we’ve taken cash and we’ve turned it into other assets that we’re going to need to succeed in our lemon stand business.

我们所做的只是拿现金购置了其他资产，以实现我们柠檬水小摊的商业大计

4:21 Income statement: How well has the business performed over time?

4:21 利润表：随着时间推移企业表现如何？

So let’s make some assumptions about how our business is going to do over time.

让我们对公司日后的经营状况做几点假设

We assume we gonna sell 800 cups of lemonade a year.

假设我们每年卖出800杯柠檬水

We’re going to assume that each cup we can sell for $1 and it’s going to cost us about $530 per year to staff our lemonade stand.

假设每杯售价1美元，而柠檬水摊位的人工成本一年要花费530美元

So now let’s take a look at the income statement.

以上述为前提，让我们来看看利润表

So the income statement talks about the profitability, about the revenues that the business generated,

利润表体现的是公司的盈利能力，营业收入

what the expenses are and what is left over for the owner of the company.

营业支出以及结余下来归属公司股东的利润

So we’ve got one lemonade stand.

所以我们有了这么一家柠檬水小摊

We’re selling 800 cups of lemonade at our stand, charging $1,

每年卖出800杯售价1美元的柠檬水

so we’re generating about $800 a year in revenue and we’re spending $200 on inventory.

所以年营收为800美元，存货开支为200美元

There is a line item here called COGS. That stands for cost of goods sold.

其中有一个科目叫作COGS，即销货成本

We have depreciation because our lemonade stand gets a bit beat up over time

因为柠檬水摊位随着时间推移有所老化，所以就有了折旧

and it wear out over five years, so it depreciates over 5 years.

它会在5年后报废，所以它的折旧年限为5年

We’ve got our labor expense for people to actually pour the lemonade and collect cash from customers.

我们有了劳务成本，以雇佣为客户倒柠檬水并收银的员工

And we have a profit.

我们也有了利润

We have EBIT and that is earnings before interest and taxes, of $10.

我们有了10美元的EBIT，即息税前利润

That is kind of our pretax profit for the business.

大致就是我们的税前利润

We didn’t make very much money because you take that pretax profit of $10 and you compare it to our revenues.

如果你将10美元的税前利润与营业收入相比，就会发现我们没赚什么钱

It’s about a 1.3% margin.

利润率只有1.3%

That is not a particularly high profit.

利润并没有多高

Now we’ve got to pay interest on our debts

现在我们需要为债务支付利息

and we have a loss of $15

这样以来我们就成了15美元的亏损

then we don’t have any taxes,

也就是说我们无需纳税

but at the end of the day we still lose money.

但到头来我们还是在亏钱

5:49 Growing the business

5:49 让公司发展壮大

Should we continue to invest in the business?

我们应该继续投资这一事业吗？

We’ve lost money in the first year. Is it time to give up?

第1年我们光是在亏钱。是时候放弃了吗？

Well, let’s think about it.

让我们仔细想想

Let’s make some projections about what the company is going to look like over the next several years.

先对公司未来几年的经营状况做些推测

Let’s assume that we take all the cash the business generates and we’re going to use it to buy more lemonade stands so we can grow.

假设我们将业务产生的全部现金用以购置更多柠檬水摊位，扩张公司的规模

Let’s assume we’re not going to take any money out of the company and we’re not going to pay a dividend.

假设我们不抽取资金，也不发放分红

We’re going to keep all the money in the company and reinvest it.

我们将所有的钱留在公司内部用于再投资

As we build our brand we can charge a little more each year,

随着我们品牌形象的建立，我们可以逐年略微提高单杯价格

so we’re going to raise our prices about a nickel, five cents more for each cup of lemonade each year

所以我们准备将每杯柠檬水的价格每年提高5美分

and then we’re going to assume we can sell 5% more cups per stand per year.

并假设单一摊位的年销售量每年会提高5%

So we’ve got built in growth assumptions.

这样一来我们就有了预设的增长假设

6:38 Bring the business up to scale

6:38 提升公司的规模

Now let’s take a look at the company.

现在让我们再来看看公司的经营情况

So if you take a look at this chart you’ll see in year one we started out with one lemonade stand.

从表上可以看到，第1年我们开了一家柠檬水小摊

We add one a year and then by year five we’re up to seven

我们每年新开一家，到第5年我们就有足足7家小摊

because we’ve got a big expansion plan.

这归功于我们的大规模扩张计划

Our price per cup goes up a nickel a year and our revenue goes from $800 and starts to grow fairly quickly

我们的单杯价格每年上涨5美分，营业收入由800美元逐年快速上涨

and the growth comes from increased prices for cups of lemonade and it also comes from opening more stands.

营收增长源于单杯价格上涨以及摊位扩张

So by year five we have almost $8,000 in revenue.

所以到第5年，我们的营业收入大约为8000美元

Our costs are relatively constant, which is the lemonade and the sugar.

成本相对固定，就是柠檬水和糖

That’s about $1,702.

大约为1702美元

We have depreciation as more and more stands start to wear out over time.

随时间推移越来越多的摊位开始老化，计入折旧

We’ve got labor expense,

我们也要承担劳务成本

but by year five the business is actually doing pretty well.

但到第5年，业绩表现实际上还挺可观

We went from a 1.3% margin to over a 28% margin.

我们的利润率从1.3%冲至逾28%

The business is now up to scale.

公司已初具规模

We’re starting to cover some of our costs. We’re growing.

营收足以弥补部分成本，公司正在发展壮大

We’re still paying $25 a year in interest for our loan

我们每年还需支付25美元的贷款利息

and we have earnings before taxes, after interest of $2,300 by the end of year 5.

所以到第5年年末，我们的息后税前收入为2300美元

So we put $500 into the business. We borrowed 250

也就是说，我们投入了500美元的起始资金，借贷250美元

and by year five we’re making a profit of $2,300.

而到第5年公司已经盈利2300美元

That sounds pretty good.

听上去是一笔好买卖

Now we have to pay taxes to the government.

但是我们还得向政府缴税

That is about 35%

税率大约35%

and we generate net income or another word for profits of $1,500 by the fifth year and about a dollar a share.

得出我们在第5年产生1500美元的净收益或者说利润，每股盈利约1美元

So if you think about this, our friend put up $500 to buy 500 shares of stock.

回头想一想，我们的朋友花了500美元买入了500股

He paid a dollar

也就是每股成本1美元

and after five years if our business goes as we expect

而在5年后，如果我们公司的经营状况符合预期

he is actually making a dollar a share in profit.

他实际上能赚到每股1美元的利润

That sounds like a pretty good deal.

听上去这是笔很划算的买卖

8:07 Cash flow

8:07 现金流

Now let’s look at the cash flow statement.

现在让我们瞧瞧现金流量表

So as the business becomes more and more profitable we generate more and more cash and the cash builds up in the company.

随着公司的盈利能力越来越强，我们手上的现金也越来越多，公司不断积累现金

We go from $500 of cash in the company to over $2,000 of cash over the period.

在此期间，公司内部的现金由500美元增长至2000多美元

The balance sheet, again, the starting balance sheet had shareholder’s equity of $1,490,

再回头看看资产负债表，起始表内的股东权益为1490美元，

but as the business becomes more profitable and the profits add to the cash.

不过随着公司盈利能力的提高，利润扩充了现金

They add to the assets of the company.

也增加了公司的资产规模

Our liabilities have not changed and the business continues to build value over time.

负债没有变化，而公司还在不断创造价值

So again by the end of year five we’ve got $4,000 of shareholder equity and that’s almost three times what it was when we started.

到第5年年末，股东权益增至4000美元，几乎是起始阶段的三倍之多

8:52 Bill’s Lemonade Stand: Good or bad business

比利的柠檬水小摊：好生意还是坏生意

Now is this a good business or a bad business?

柠檬水小摊是一桩好生意还是一桩坏生意？

How do we think about whether it’s good or bad?

我们如何判别它的好坏？

One thing to think about is what kind of earnings are we achieving compared to how much money went into the company.

一个可用的参考标准，就是把我们赚得的盈利与投入公司的资金相比较

9:09 Evaluating Value

9:09 评估价值

Now this is a business that we valued at $1,500 when we started.

在起始阶段，公司的价值为1500美元

Someone put up $500 for a third of the company.

某人为公司三分之一的所有权出资500美元

We gave it a $1,500 value.

由此我们得出1500美元的价值

By the end of year five it’s earning over $1,500 in earnings,

到第5年年末，公司盈利超过1500美元

so that’s over a 100% return on the money that we put into the company.

也就是说投入公司的资金得到了逾100%的回报

That’s actually quite a high number.

这实际上是非常高的回报数字

We’ve spent $2,100 in capital building lemonade stands

我们花费2100美元的资本建造柠檬水小摊

and we earned $2,336 in year five on the capital we invested.

到第5年我们投资的这些资本赚得了2336美元的盈利

That’s over 100% return on capital.

资本回报率超过100%

That is a very attractive return.

这样的回报率着实诱人

Earnings have grown at a very rapid rate, 155% per annum.

盈利增长非常迅速，高达每年155%

This is really a growth company

真的是一家成长型公司

and our profitability has gone from 1. 3% to 28. 6% by year five

利润率从第1年的1.3%上涨至第5年的28.6%

and that sounds pretty attractive and it is.

听上去极具吸引力，事实也的确如此

So let’s look at the person who put up the loan.

让我们看看贷款人的情况

Well that person put up $250 and the business has been profitable.

他发放了250美元的贷款，而这家公司在持续盈利

We’ve been able to pay them their interest of 10% a year, $25 a year

我们每年能够支付10%的利息，即25美元一年

and they’re happy because they put up $250.

他们对此很开心，因为他们借出了250美元

They’re getting a 10% return on their loan

能为他们带来10%的回报

and the business is worth well more than $250.

而这家公司的价值远超250美元

We’ve got more than that in cash.

我们手上的现金都不止250美元

As a result, they’re in a safe position,

因此，贷款人的本息都有保障

but they’ve only made 10% on their money.

但是这笔贷款的回报率仅为10%

Now let’s compare that with the equity investor, the person who bought the stock in the company.

现在我们将之与权益投资者相比，权益投资者是购买公司股票的人

That person earned a dollar a share in year five versus an investment of a dollar a share,

权益投资者每股1美元的投资，在第5年能为他赚到每股1美元

so he is earning over 100% or about 100% return on his investment versus only 10% for the lender.

所以他的投资回报率超过100%或约等于100%，而贷款人的回报率仅为10%

So who got the better deal? Well obviously the equity investor.

谁做的买卖更好？显然是权益投资者

Now why did the equity investor, why do they have the right to earn so much more than the lender?

为什么权益投资者有权比贷款人获得更多回报？

The answer is they took more risk.

因为他们承担更多的风险

If the business failed the lender is entitled to the first $250 of value that comes from liquidating the company,

如果这家公司破产，清偿时贷款人有权以第一顺位收回250美元

so if you sell off the lemonade stands and you only get $250,

所以如果你变卖柠檬水摊位，只得来250美元

the lender gets back all their money.

贷款人也能悉数收回他们的资金

They’re safe.

他们高枕无忧

They got their 10% return while the business was going .

公司正常经营时，他们每年能获得10%的回报

They got back their $250,

（破产清算时）贷款人还能收回他们的250美元本金

but the equity investor, the person who bought the stock is wiped out

但是购买股票的权益投资者就全赔进去了

because they come after the lender.

因为他们受偿的顺序排在贷款人之后

（屏幕上方注：风险差异：债务比权益优先受偿）

11:09 debt and equity: risk and reward

11:09债务和权益：风险和报酬

So what is the difference between debt and equity?

所以债务和权益的区别是什么？

Debt tends to be a safer investment because you have a senior claim on the assets of a company

债务往往是更安全的投资，因为你享有对公司资产的优先受偿权

and it comes in lots of different forms.

债务形式多样

You’ve heard of mortgage debt on a home.

你一定听说过住房按揭贷款

That’s a secured loan secured by a house,

这是以住房作为担保的抵押贷款

but you could have mortgage debt on a building for a company.

但你也可以抵押其他建筑为公司申请按揭贷款

There is senior debt. There is junior debt. There is mezzanine debt. There is convertible debt,

还有优先债务，次级债务，夹层债务和可转债务

but the bottom line, it’s all debt.

不过本质上这些都是债务

It comes in different orders of priority in a company

对公司而言，它们的优先级不同

and the rate your charge is inversely related to your security,

而债务的利率水平与其优先级呈负相关

so the better the security and the less risk the lower the interest rate you’re entitled to receive.

所以优先级越高，风险越小，收取的利率就越低

The more junior the loan the higher the interest rate you’re entitled to receive,

贷款的优先级越低，收取的利率就越高

but you can avoid the complexity.

不过你可以不用考虑这些细枝末节

All you need to think about is debt comes first.

你只需要牢记债务优先受偿

It’s a safer loan, but your profit opportunity is limited.

这样的贷款更安全，但你的获利机会有限

Now the equity also has their varying forms.

权益形式也各不相同

There is something called preferred equity or preferred stock.

有一种被称为优先权益或优先股

There is common equity or common stock

还有普通权益或普通股

and again stock and equity are basically synonyms.

再次重申，股票和权益基本上是同义词

There are options, but really not worth talking about today.

还有期权，但是今天这堂课上我们不用管它

The important point is that equity gets everything that is left over after the debt is paid off,

重要的是，只有在债务得到清偿后，股权才享有受偿权

so it’s called a residual claim.

所以它又被称为剩余请求权

Now the good thing about the residual claim is that business grows in value.

剩余求偿权的好处是，公司价值会不断增长

If you don’t owe your lender anymore, but all that value goes to the stock holder.

如果你不欠借贷人任何债务，所有这些价值都会归属股东

So the question is why was the lender willing to take only a 10% return

那么问题来了，为什么在权益回报率更高的情况下

when the equity earned a much higher rate of return？

贷款人愿意只收取10%的回报呢？

The answer is when the business started there was no way of knowing whether it would be successful or not

答案是在公司刚起步时，无从得知它会否成功

and the lender made a bet that if the business failed they could sell off the lemonade stand.

而贷款人打了个赌，即便公司破产，他们也可以变卖柠檬水摊位

It cost $300 to make it.

卖个300美元就回本了

They would have some lemons, some lemonade.

他们还会处置剩下的柠檬和柠檬水

Even if they sold it at a much lower price than the dollar they originally projected

即使变卖的价格远低于他们最初预期的金额

the lender felt pretty comfortable that they would get their money back,

贷款人也会因收回本金而倍感宽慰

whereas the stockholder is really taking a risk.

而股东们却要承担实实在在的风险

They were betting on the profitability of the company and they were taking a risk that if it failed they would lose their entire investment,

他们赌的是公司的盈利能力，承担的是如若公司破产投资就整个打水漂的风险

so they were entitled to get a higher return

所以在公司大获成功的情况下，他们有权享受更高的回报

or have the potential to have a higher return in the event the business we successful.

或者拥有获得这种回报的可能性

13:05 Assessing risk

13:05 风险评估

So let’s talk about risk.

下面让我们聊聊风险

you know a lot of people talk about risk in the stock market as the risk of stock prices moving up and down every day.

许多人在谈论股市风险的时候，谈论的是股价每天起伏不定的风险

We don’t think that’s the risk that you should be focused on.

我们并不认为这是你应该关注的风险

The risk you should be focused on is if you invest in a business, what are the chances that you’re going to lose your money,

如果你投资一家公司，你应该关注的是损失本金的概率

that there is going to be a permanent loss.

是否存在遭受永久损失的可能性

When you’re thinking about investing your own money, when you’re thinking about one investment versus another

当你考虑是否投资自有资金，该投资这家还是那家公司的时候

don’t worry so much about whether the price moves up and down a lot in the short term.

不要花费太多的精力在短期内的股价涨跌上

What matters is ultimately when you get your money back will you earn a return on your investment.

至关重要的是当你收回资金时，你的投资能否赚得回报

How do you think about risk?

你该如何看待风险？

Well, one way to think about risk is to compare your risk to other alternatives,

一种方法是将你承担的风险与其他选项相比

So you could buy government bonds

你可以买进政府债券

and government bonds are considered today the lowest risk form of investment

今天政府债券被广泛视为风险最低的投资品

and the US Treasury issues 10 year, 3 year, 5 year debt.

美国财政部发行10年期、3年期和5年期债券

There is a stated interest rate and today a 10 year Treasury you earn about a 3% return.

美债有明确的利率，今天10年期美债的收益率约为3%

So you give your government $1,000 and you get $30 a year in interest.

也就是说你给美国政府1000美元，每年会得到30美元的利息

At the end of 10 years you get your $1,000 back,

10年到期后，你能收回你的1000美元

so that’s very, very safe and that sort of provides a floor.

所以此类投资安全系数极高，并大致给出了市场的无风险收益率

Now obviously if you’re going to make a loan you can lend money to the government and earn 3%.

显然，如果你打算贷款给别人，你大可以把钱借给政府，赚取3%的收益

Well, if you can lend money to a lemonade stand you want to earn meaningfully more,

如果你想获得更多收益，你可以把钱借给柠檬水小摊

so in this case the lender is charging a 10% rate of interest.

在本例中，贷款人收取的利率为10%

Why 10%?

为什么是10%？

Because they want to earn a nice fat spread over what they can make lending to the government

因为与借钱给政府相比，他们想好好赚上一笔可观的利差

because a startup lemonade stand business is a higher risk business.

而柠檬水小摊的初创企业是个一项风险更高的事业

Equity investors sort of think about things similarly,

权益投资者的想法与他们相似

so the higher the valuation—the more risky the business the higher the rate of return the equity investor is going to expect

所以估值越高——公司的风险越高，权益投资者期望的回报率就越高

and the lower the risk business, the lower the return the equity investor is going to expect

而公司的风险越低，权益投资者期望的回报率就越低

and equity investors don’t get interest the same way a lender does.

而且权益投资者不像贷款人那样获得利息

What equity investors get is they get the potential to received dividends over the life of a company.

权益投资者所能期待的是在公司经营期间收到分红的可能性

14:53 profiting as an entrepreneur

14:53像企业家一样获利

Let’s talk about raising capital.

我们接下来谈谈融资

You started this lemonade business.

你创立了这家柠檬水公司

Now the point of this was to make money in the first place.

这么做的初衷就是赚钱

The business is doing very well

而公司业绩蒸蒸日上

yet I, having started the business, coming up with a name and the concept, hired all the people,

我呢，我创立了公司，想出了品牌和概念，雇佣了员工

I've made nothing, right?

但是我一分钱都还没赚到呢

So the business has grown in value, but where is my money?

公司价值在不断增长，但是我的钱在哪里？

I need money to buy a car, for example, so I want to buy a car for $4,000.

举个例子，我需要钱购置汽车，我想买一辆价值4000美元的汽车

What are my choices? What can I do?

我有哪些选择？我可以做什么？

Well we’ve taken all the cash the business has generated.

我们手上有公司经营产生的全部现金

We’ve reinvested it in the business.

将之再投资于经营活动当中

Now the good news is we’ve taken all that money.

好消息是我们拿所有这些资金

We’ve been able to use it to buy more lemonade stands and these lemonade stands are more and more productive

购置了更多的柠檬水摊位，这些摊位的生产效率也越来越高

and it’s grown the value of the business faster and faster.

令公司价值的增长越来越快

Now my alternatives could include instead of growing the business so quickly, instead of investing in more lemonade stands

而我的其他选项包括，于其让公司如此高速发展、将资金投资于更多的摊位

I could simply have paid dividends to myself.

我可以直接向自己发放分红

Now the good news about that is I get money along the way, but the bad news about that is the business wouldn’t grow as quickly

好消息是我从公司的发展中获利，而坏消息是公司成长速度会因此放缓

and if you have a business as profitable as this lemonade stand company

如果你拥有像柠檬水小摊这样盈利能力极强的公司

and you can earn hundreds of dollars in each new stand,

每新开一家小摊我们就能从中赚取数百美元

it makes sense to keep investing.

持续投资才是最好的选择

Well, how do I keep my business going and growing, taking advantage of the opportunities,

我怎样才能在让公司持续成长，抓住机遇的同时

but take some money off the table?

抽出一些钱来？

How do I do that?

怎样才能做到这一点？

I could sell my lemonade stand business.

我当然可以卖掉我的柠檬水小摊公司

I started this one in New York.

我在纽约开了这家公司

Maybe there is someone in New Jersey who wants to buy me, consolidate with my lemonade stand company.

也许在新泽西的某人想收购它，兼并我的柠檬水小摊公司

The problem with that is once I sell it I can no longer participate in the opportunity going forward

问题在于我一旦卖掉了公司，就再也没有机会从公司未来的机遇中分一杯羹了

and I believe in this business.

可我相信这家公司

I think it’s going to be very successful over time.

我坚信，假以时日，它定会大获成功

So that’s one alternative.

所以这只是一种选项

The other alternative is other than selling 100% of the business is to sell a piece of the business and I can do that privately.

另一种选项是我私人卖出公司的部分股票，而不是卖掉全部股票

I can find an investor who wants to buy a private interest in the company

我可以找到一个有意购买公司私人权益的投资者

and if the business is worth enough I can sell them a piece of the business and we can be successful.

如果公司的价值足够高，我可以卖出部分权益，和投资者一道走向成功

The other alternative is I can take the business public.

最后一种选项是让公司上市

An IPO, the abbreviation stands for initial public offering

IPO是首次公开发行的缩写

and it’s initial because it’s the first time a company is going public.

之所以叫作“首次”，是因为这是公司第一次上市

Going public means you’re selling stock to the broad general public

“公开”意味着你向广大公众卖出股票

as opposed to finding one investor buying interest in the company

而不是寻找购买私人权益的某一位投资者

and it’s offering because you’re offering people the opportunity to participate

而叫作“发行”，是因为你是在向公众发行股票，给予他们参与进来的机遇

What is interesting is an IPO doesn’t make someone rich.

有趣的是，IPO并不会让谁暴富

All it really does is it takes a business that they already own and it sells a piece of it to the public and it gets listed on an exchange

IPO的实质是原始股东拿出已有的一部分权益卖给公众，并让这些股票在交易所上市

When you decide you want to take your business into public

当你决定将公司上市

You’re gonna have to reveal a lot of information to the public in order to attract investors to participate

你必须向公众披露大量信息以吸引投资者的参与

and the Securities and Exchange Commission , they’re gonna study this prospectus very carefully.

证券交易委员会（SEC）将仔细研究公司的招股书

They’re going to make sure that you disclose all the various risks associated with investing in the company

他们要确保你已披露投资这家公司的一切相关风险

and you’re also going to have an opportunity to talk about the business.

你也将有机会就公司经营状况畅所欲言

That is kind of an exciting time for you because when you sell shares to the public

上市对你来说会是激动人心的时刻，因为在你将股票卖给公众时

that’s really, in most cases, the way to get the optimally high price for the company,

往往是公司权益得到最高定价的真正途径

but you don’t have to sell 100% of the business to the public.

不过你无须将公司100%卖给公众

In fact, typically you only sell a small percentage.

事实上，通常你只需要卖出很小比例的权益

You get to keep the rest.

其他部分仍归你所有

You get to keep control of the company, but you get to raise money in the offering and

你仍享有公司的控制权，不过在上市过程中你融到了钱

you can use that money to buy the car that we were talking about before.

你就可以用这笔钱买我们前面提到的汽车了

17:37 Valuation: determining a company’s worth

17:37估价：决定公司的价值

Now before you decided to go public or even to sell it at all

在你决定将公司上市甚至卖掉公司之前

it’s probably a good idea to figure out what the business is worth.

最好搞清楚公司价值几何

So let’s talk about valuation or how to value a business.

让我们聊聊估值，或者说衡量公司价值的方法

17:51 Comparing companies to determine value

17:51通过比较决定公司的价值

One way to think about the value of your business is to compare it to other similar businesses.

为公司估值的一种方法是将其与同类公司相比较

Now the stock market is actually a pretty interesting place to look.

股市确实是一个值得探究的有趣之地

The stock market is a list of companies that have sold shares to the public

股市是一份将股票卖给公众的上市公司的清单

and you can look in the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal

你可以在《纽约时报》、《华尔街日报》

or online, on Yahoo Finance or Google or other sites

或者在网上的雅虎财经、谷歌等网站上查看股市的行情

and look at stock prices for Coke, for MacDonald’s and what those stock prices tell you is what the value of the company is.

通过观察可口可乐、麦当劳等公司的股价，你可以得知公司的价值

And how do you figure out the value of the company?

该如何算出公司的价值呢？

Well you look at where the stock price is.

你先要看公司股价当前的水平

You count how many shares are outstanding.

数数有多少已发行股票

The shares outstanding will be listed in various filings with the SEC.

发行股数会在SEC的各种报表中列出

You multiply the shares outstanding times the stock price.

你将发行股数乘以股价

That tells you the price you’re paying for the equity of the company,

得出的结果便是购买公司权益所需的价格

so if you go back to our example of our little lemonade stand we have 1,500 shares of stock outstanding.

如果我们回到柠檬水小摊的例子，我们有1500股已发行股票

We sold them for a dollar initially, one-third of them to an investor

起初，我们以每股1美元的价格卖出股票，将三分之一的股票卖给了一位投资者

and the business initially had a value of $1,500.

公司的起始价值为1500美元

So what is the business worth today?

那么现在公司的价值是多少呢？

Well one way to look at it; let’s look at other lemonade stand companies.

一种方法就是去看看其他柠檬水小摊的情况

Let’s assume other lemonade stand companies have sold either in the private market,

or the public market for a price of 10 times earnings or 10 times profit,

假设其他柠檬水小摊已经将股票在私人市场或公开市场上出售，股价为10倍盈利或利润

so that will give you a sense of value.

这些数据能让你对公司的价值有个大致的概念

So let’s assume another lemonade stand company is trading at 20 times earnings in the stock market.

假设另一家柠檬水小摊以20倍盈利的价格在股市上交易

Well we earned a dollar per share in year five.

而在第5年我们的每股盈利是1美元

If we put a 20 multiple on that dollar,

我们将这1美元乘以20倍

the business is worth, according to the comparable, about $20 per share.

那么按照可比公司来看，我们的公司价值大约在每股20美元

We’ve got 1,500 shares outstanding.

我们有1500股已发行股票

We multiply 1,500 times 20.

将1500乘以20

Now our business is worth $30,000.

现在我们的公司价值30000美元

So we had a company that started out at 1,500, five years later it’s worth $30,000.

也就是说，我们的公司最初价值1500美元，5年后已经价值30000美元

That’s actually quite good.

公司发展得很出色

Well, how do we raise $4,000 if that’s the appropriate value for our business?

如果这是我们公司的合适价值，我们该如何融到4000美元呢？

Well if we sold 200 of our shares, 200 of our shares that are today now worth $20 a share

如果从我们手中卖出200股，这200股在每股价值20美元的今天

we could raise the $4,000 that we are talking about.

就足以融到我们前面提到的4000美元了

Now what would that do? What would happen if we sold 200 of our shares in the market?

这会造成什么样的影响呢？如果我们在市场上卖出200股，会发生什么呢？

Well our interest in the business would go down because today we own 66 or 2/3 of the company.

我们在公司中的权益比例就会下降，因为今天我们拥有公司的66%或三分之二

A third is owned by our private investors.

而三分之一由私人投资者拥有

Well if we sold stock in the market, if we sold 200 of the shares that we would own,

如果我们在市场上卖出股票，从手中卖了200股

our ownership would go from 67% to 53%,

那么我们的所有权比例将会从67%降至53%

so the good news there is we’d still have control of the business

好消息是我们仍享有公司的控制权

because in most public companies owning a majority allows you to control the business going forward,

因为在多数上市公司，拥有多数股票意味着你掌控公司未来的走向

but because the company is now owned by public shareholders

但是因为公司的部分股票现在由公众股东拥有

you have to make sure their interests are properly represented,

你得确保他们的利益在公司当中得到充分代表

so you have to have a board of directors, a group of individuals who represent the interests of the shareholders

所以你就得有一个董事会，即一个由代表股东利益的个人组成的团体

who have a duty to make sure that their shareholders are treated properly

他们有义务确保股东享受恰当的待遇

and you wouldn’t have the same degree of flexibility you had when you were a private company

你将不再享有与私人公司时同等的灵活度

because you have other constituencies that you need to think about.

因为你必须考虑其他股东

Now the benefit of the IPO is the stock would now be liquid.

IPO的好处是公司股票得以流动

There would be a market where it would trade in the public markets

股票可以在公开市场上交易

and then over time if I wanted to sell more stock I could do so or

随着时间推移，如果我想我还可以卖出更多的股票

if new investors wanted to come in they could buy stock and our stock would now be liquid.

如果新投资者想参股，他们可以买进股票，这样一来我们的股票就流动起来了

It would make you feel better about this business

这种流动性会让你经营起来更加舒坦

in terms of my ability to at some point exit

因为这给予了我们在某个时间点上变现退出的能力

or if I wanted to raise more money I could sell stock fairly easily in the market

或者我就想融到更多的钱，我可以轻松地在市场上卖出股票

because each day you could look up the price either on the web or in the New York Times or otherwise

因为你每天都可以在网上或者在《纽约时报》等其他地方查询股价

and you could figure out what your business is worth.

并可以算出你公司的价值

21:03 So what did we learn about finance

21:03我们学到了哪些金融知识？

Okay, now how does this matter to you?

那么这些对你有什么影响呢？

Now the purpose of the example of our lemonade stand is just going to give you a primer on what companies are, what they do, how they earn profits,

柠檬水小摊只是个启蒙案例，是为了让你了解公司的定义、活动和盈利方式

what the various reports they provide to investors so investors can figure out what they’re worth

了解公司向投资者提供哪些报告，以方便投资者厘清公司价值

and the purpose of this lecture is to give you a sense of some of the things you need to think about when you’re thinking about investing perhaps some of your own money

这堂课旨在为初学者建立投资意识，了解在动用自有资金投资时的注意事项

whether you want to invest in a lemonade stand or you want to invest in a company on the market.

不论你想要投资的是柠檬水小摊还是一家上市公司

21:35 Investing

21:35 投资

Well let’s assume at 22 you have a pretty good job.

假设22岁的你有一份收入可观的工作

Instead of spending your money on gadgets or a fancy apartment or not so fancy apartment

如果不在高科技产品、或奢或俭的公寓上花钱

or going out and drinking a fair amount,

也不出门旅游、泡吧喝酒

you put some money aside and you start investing money.

你就能存下一笔钱，开始你的投资

Let’s say you could save $10,000 at 22

假设22岁时你能存下10000美元

and you can earn a 10% return on that money between now and the time you retire.

从现在开始到你退休，这笔钱每年能给你10%的回报

What would you have in 43 years?

那么43年后你手上会有多少钱呢？

（屏幕上方注：美国平均退休年龄约为65岁，可以领取社保金的法定最低退休年龄为62岁）

The answer is, if you put aside $10,000, you don’t save another penny

答案是，如果你存下了10000美元，其他一分没存

and you invested it, and you earned 10% of your money each year

然后你将这笔资金用做投资，每年可以赚取10%的回报

you’d have $600,000 in year 43 and the reason for that is

第43年你手上会有60万美元，这是因为

well in year 1 your $10,000 will become 11,000,

第1年你的10000美元变成了11000美元

in year 2 your $11,000 would grow by 10%

第2年你的11000美元会再增长10%

and so you would be earning interest not just on your original principle,

因此你不仅会从初始本金赚取利息

but you’d earn interest on the interest you had earned the previous year

你还会从上一年的利息赚取“息上息”

and that compounding effect allows money to grow in an almost exponential fashion.

而这种复利效应会让资金得到近乎指数式的增长

Now obviously if you earn more than 10% you can earn even higher returns.

显而易见，如果你赚得比10%要多，还可以有更高的回报

Now that’s if you put $10,000 aside at 22,

在这种假设中你在22岁时存下了10000美元

you’d have $600,000 in 43 years.

43年后就能到手60万美元

That’s pretty good.

这可是一笔好买卖

What if you had to wait until you were 32 when you earn the same 10% per annum?

如果你得等到32岁时才能赚取年化10%的投资回报，会发生什么呢？

The problem there is by year 33 you’d only have $232,000.

问题在于到第33年，你手上只会有232000美元

Maybe that is not enough to retire.

这些钱也许不够你退休养老的

So, the key thing here is, if you’re going to be an investor

这里的关键点是，如果你要成为一名投资者

one of the most valuable assets you have today

对今天年方18、19岁的你来说

as someone who is 18 or 19 years-old is your youth.

你拥有的最有价值的财产之一就是你的青春

You want to start early so that your money can grow over time.

你一定要尽早开始投资，这样你的资金就能随时间增长

22:59 The key to investing: start early

22:59 投资的关键：尽早开始

Now what if you could earn 15%?

那么如果你能赚取15%的回报呢？

I'll give a you better sense of how powerful compounding is

你会对复利的强大之处有更深的理解

because remember at 10% for 43 years you’d have $600,000.

记住当回报率是10%时，43年后你手上会有60万美元

That’s pretty good,

已是相当不错

but if you earned 15% you’d have over 4 million.

但如果回报率是15%，你手上就会有400多万美元

Now you’re in a pretty good position

这样一来你就能高枕无忧

and so obviously making smart decisions about where you put your money

所以很明显，在配置资金上做出明智的决策

has a huge difference in what you’re retirement assets are.

会大大改善你退休时的财产状况

Now obviously if you could put aside more than $10,000,

显然，如果你能存下不止10000美元

if you could put aside $10,000 each year then your wealth would be quite enormous.

甚至每年都能存下10000美元，那你积累的财富将会相当庞大

Now just for fun if you were one of the world’s great investors,

现在就让我们假设你是世上最伟大的投资者之一

Warren Buffet being a good example,

沃伦·巴菲特就是个好例子

if you could earn 20% per year for 43 years you’d have 25 million dollars.

如果43年里你每年都能赚取20%的回报，最终你会有2亿5000万美元

Again the original $10,000 investment would increase about 2,500 times

也就是说，在赚取20%回报的情况下，初始的10000美元投资

over that period of time just by earning a 20% return.

在此期间增长了约2500倍

Albert Einstein said the most powerful force in the universe is compound interest,

阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦曾说，宇宙中最强大的力量是复利

so the key is start early, earn an attractive return and avoid losing money

所以关键在于投资要趁早，赚取可观的回报，避免资金亏损

and you’re going to have a very nice retirement.

你就会享有美好的退休时光

24:02 the importance of not losing investment money

24:02 避免投资亏损的重要性

Okay, now let’s talk about the risk of losing money.

现在，让我们来谈谈亏损的风险

Now let’s assume that in order to try to get a 20% return you took a lot of risk

假设你为了获得20%的回报率，承担了诸多风险

and it turns out that every 12 years you lost half your money

结果每隔12年你会亏掉一半的资金

because you hit a bad patch in the market or you made dumb decisions.

原因诸如恰逢市场萧条期，或者做了不明智的决策

Well your 25 million dollars at 20%

那么原本在复合年均增长率20%情况下预期到手的2亿5000万美元

would now only be worth a million eight in 43 years,

在43年后就只值180万美元

so a key success factor here is not just shooting for the fences, trying to get the highest return.

所以成功的关键因素不仅在于拼尽全力，试图去获得最高的回报

It’s avoiding significant loses over the period.

更在于避免投资期间的重大亏损

Okay, so as Warren Buffet says rule number one in investing is never lose money

正如巴菲特所言，准则一是永远不要在投资中亏钱

and rule number two is never forget rule number one,

准则二是永远不要忘记准则一

so if you can avoid loses and earn an attractive return over time

所以如果你能避免亏损，长期赚取可观的回报

you’re going to have a lot of money if you can stick at it for a long period of time.

只要你坚持足够长的时间，你就能积累许多财富

24:56 Keys to successful investing

24:56 成功投资的关键

So how do you be a successful investor?

那么如何才能成为一名成功的投资者？

Now I'm assuming that you’re not going to go into the business of investing.

我先假设你不会从事职业投资

I'm assuming that you’re going to be a doctor or a lawyer.

想要从事诸如医生或律师等其他职业

You’re going to pursue your passion, but you’re going to have some money that you’re going to save over time

你想要追寻自己的梦想，但随着时间推移你总是能存下一些积蓄

and I'm going to give you my advice on the topic.

对此我可以给你一些建议

It’s not necessarily definitive advice,

这不一定是最权威的建议

but it’s the advice I would give my sister, my grandmother on what she should do if she were in the same position.

但如果我的家人亲属面临同样的处境，我也会给出相同的建议

I think that’s probably the right way to think about it.

我觉得这样看待我的建议就对了

So number one, how do you avoid losing money?

首先，怎么做才能不亏钱？

What are the good places to invest?

什么才是好的投资标的？

My first piece of advice is despite the story about the lemonade stand I’d avoid investing in lemonade stands.

我的首要建议是，虽然我们的故事由柠檬水小摊展开，但是我不会去投资它

I’d avoid investing in startup businesses where the prospects are not very well known

我会避免投资前景不甚明了的初创企业

because again you don’t need to make 100% a year to have a fortune.

再次重申，你不需要通过赚取一年100%的回报来积累财富

You just need to invest at an attractive return 10, 15 percent over a long period of time.

你的投资只需要长线稳定于10%、15%的可观回报即可

Your money grows very significantly.

你的资金会大幅增长

So how do you avoid the riskiest investments?

那么如何才能避免风险最高的投资呢？

My advice would be to invest in public securities,

我的建议是投资于公开发行的证券

invest in listed companies, companies that trade on the stock market.

投资于上市公司，也就是在股票市场上交易的公司

Why, because those businesses tend to be more established.

为什么呢？因为这些企业往往更加成熟

They have to meet certain hurdles before they go public.

他们必须跨过重重障碍才可上市

The stocks are liquid, so you can change your mind if you want to sell.

股票具有流动性，所以你可以随时改变主意卖掉它

If you invest in a private lemonade stand

如果你投资了一家私人柠檬水小摊

it’s hard to find someone to take you out of that investment unless that business becomes fabulously profitable.

你很难找到接盘侠，除非这门生意利润惊人

So that’s piece of advice number one, invest in public companies.

所以第一条建议是：投资于上市公司

Number two, you want to invest in businesses that you can understand.

第二，投资于你能理解的企业

What I mean by that is there are lots of businesses that you come in that you deal with in the course of your day in your personal life,

我的意思是，在日常的个人生活中，我们会与形形色色的企业打交道

whether it’s a retail store that you know because you like shopping there or it’s a product, your iPad that you think is a great product,

无论是你喜欢光顾的百货店，还是像iPad这样在你看来出色的产品

but you have to understand how the company makes money.

但是你必须理解公司是如何盈利的

If the business is just too complicated, you don’t understand how they make money,

如果企业过于复杂，你无法理解它的盈利模式

even if they’ve had a great track record I would avoid it

即使它的历史业绩卓越，我也会避免投资这样的公司

and a lot of people thought Enron was an incredible business

许多人曾认为安然是一家无与伦比的企业

because it appeared to have a good track record, but very few people understood how they made money.

因为它的历史业绩看似相当出彩，但是鲜有人了解它的盈利模式

It was good to avoid it.

最好避免投资这样的公司

Another very important criterion is you want to invest at a reasonable price.

另一个非常重要的准则，就是在合理的价格进行投资

It could be a fabulous business that is done very well over a long period of time,

这可能是一家优秀的企业，长期以来一直业绩红火

but if you pay too much for it you’re not going to earn a very good return investing in that company.

但是如果你为它支付的价码过高，也无法从投资中获得丰厚的回报

The last bit is that you want to invest in a business that you could theoretically own forever.

最后一点是，你应该投资于那些在理论上能够永久持有的公司

If the stock market were to close for 10 years you wouldn’t be unhappy.

如果股市要闭市十年，你也不会因此感到不快

What do I mean by that?

我这么说的意思是什么呢？

Again if you’re going to compound your money at a 10 or 15 percent return over a 43 year period of time

如果你准备以10%或15%的回报做长达43年的复利投资

you really want a business that you can own forever.

那么你肯定得选择一家能够永久持有的公司

You don’t want to constantly have to be shifting from one business to the next.

你也不希望不断变更投资的企业

And what are businesses that you can own forever?

那么什么样的公司你可以永久持有呢？

Well there are very few that sort of meet that standard.

极少数公司符合这个标准

Maybe a good example is Coca Cola.

可口可乐也许是个好例子

What is good about Coca Cola?

可口可乐好在哪里呢？

It’s a relatively easy business to understand.

相对而言，它是一家简单易懂的企业

You understand how Coke makes money.

你能理解可乐饮料的盈利模式

They sell a formula or syrup to bottlers and to retail establishments

他们把配方或者糖浆卖给装瓶厂家，再卖给零售渠道

and they make a profit every time they serve a Coca Cola.

每卖出一瓶可乐都能赚到钱

People drank a lot of Coca Cola for a very long period of time.

人们会喝很多可口可乐，从小喝到大

The world’s population is growing.

全球人口在不断增长

They sell it in almost every country in the world and each year people drink a little bit more Coca Cola,

可口可乐在几乎所有国家都有售，饮用的可乐总量每年都在略微上涨

so it’s a pretty easy business to understand

所以这的确是一家简单易懂的企业

and it’s also a business that I think is unlikely to be competed away as a result of technology or some other new product.

在我看来这还是一家不会被技术或其他新产品竞争挤出的公司

It’s been around long enough.

可口可乐历史悠久

People have grown used to the taste.

人们已经习惯了它的口味

Parents give it to their children and you can expect it will be around a long period of time.

家长会给孩子喝可乐，可想而知可口可乐还会长期延续下去

I think that’s one good example.

我觉得这是个不错的例子

Another good example might be MacDonald’s.

另一个好例子大概是麦当劳

You may not love MacDonald’s hamburgers, but it’s a business that it has been around for 50 years.

你也许不喜欢麦当劳的汉堡，但是它是家已经延续50年左右的企业

You understand how they make money.

你也能理解它的盈利模式

They open up these little—build these little boxes.

他们开张这些小——建造了这些四四方方的小门面

They rent them to the franchisees.

然后把门面租给加盟商

They charge them royalties in exchange for the name

他们向加盟商收取品牌使用费，并给予“麦当劳”的品牌使用权

and they sell hamburgers and French fries

他们卖卖汉堡和炸薯条

and you know what people have to eat.

而你也知道人是铁饭是钢

It’s relatively low cost food.

麦当劳的食品成本相对低廉

The quality is pretty good and they continue to grow every year.

但胜在质优，所以公司每年仍在不断增长

So I think the consistent message here is try to find a business that you can understand

所以我认为这当中的共通点，是努力找到一家你能理解的企业

that’s not particularly complicated, that has a successful long term track record

它的业务不过于复杂，长期业绩优良

that makes an attractive profit and can grow over time

创造可观的利润，而且随着时间推移不断增长

What are the key things to look for in a business as I say that lasts forever?

那么能够永久维持下去的企业，都有什么样的特质呢？

Well you want a business that sells a product or a service that people need and that is somewhat unique

这家企业的产品或服务要为人所需，而且独一无二

and they have a loyalty to this particular brand or product and that people are willing to pay a premium for that.

这家企业的品牌或产品要有很高的忠诚度，顾客愿意支付品牌溢价

Another good example might be a candy business.

糖果公司可能是个好例子

While people are going to buy generic versions of many kind of food products, flour, sugar, they don’t need to have the branded product.

当人们去购买食物、面粉和白糖等大类食品时，他们无需产品有品牌傍身

When it comes to candy, people don’t tend to like the Walmart version or the Kmart version.

但一旦说起糖果，人们对沃尔玛或者凯马特的糖果往往并不感冒

They want the Hershey chocolate bar or the Cadbury chocolate bar or the See’s Candy.

他们想要的是好时巧克力棒或是吉百利巧克力棒或是时思糖果

They want the brand and they’re willing to pay a premium for that

他们渴望购买品牌产品，也愿意支付品牌溢价

and so that’s I think a key thing.

我认为这是一个关键因素

You want the product to be unique.

公司的产品得是独一无二的

You don’t want it to be a commodity that everyone else can sell

它不能是一件人人皆可售卖的商品

because when you sell a commodity anyone can sell it

因为如果你卖一件人人皆可售卖的商品

and they can sell it at a better price and it’s very hard to make a profit doing that.

一旦对手的叫价更优，你就很难赚到钱

If you’re investing for the long term you want to invest in businesses that have very little debt.

如果你想进行长线投资，你得投资于负债极少的公司

In our little example before we talked about our lemonade stand.

在之前的小例子中，我们谈到过柠檬水小摊

There is $250 worth of debt.

它有250美元的债务

That didn’t put too much pressure on the lemonade stand company,

背负这点债务对柠檬水小摊而言没有过多压力

but if it had been $1,000 and we hit a rough patch

但是如果负债达到1000美元，而我们又遭遇市场萧条

the business could have gone out of business for failure to pay its debts.

那么这门生意可能会因资不抵债而破产

The shareholders could have been wiped out.

股东可能会血本无归

So if you can find a company that can earn attractive profits, that doesn’t have a lot of debt

所以如果你找到一家利润丰厚的公司，没有过多负债

or they generate vastly more profits than they need to pay the interest on their debt

或者他们产生的利润远远高于所要支付的债务利息

that is a safe place to put your money over a long period of time.

那么这就是家安全的公司，大可长期投资

You want businesses that have what people call barriers to entry.

你得投资于一家拥有所谓“护城河”的公司

You want a business where it’s hard for someone tomorrow to set up a new company to compete with you and put you out of business.

一夜之间成立的新公司难以与之抗衡，更遑论将之挤出市场

I mean going back to the Coca Cola example.

我想回头谈谈可口可乐这个例子

Coca Cola has such a strong market presence.

可口可乐有非常强大的市场地位

People have come to expect when they go to a restaurant they can ask for a Coke and get a Coke.

人们已经形成了这样的预期，即外出用餐时想点可乐就一定有可乐

It’s very hard for someone else to break in.

其他公司难以打入这片市场

Of course there is Pepsi and there are other soda brands, but Pepsi has been around a long time and

当然，我们还有百事等其他汽水品牌，但是百事可乐同样历史悠久

Coca Cola and Pepsi have continued to exist side by side over long periods of time.

长久以来可口可乐和百事可乐分庭抗礼，一同存续到了今天

So when you’re thinking about choosing a company make sure that they sell a product or a service

因此当你选择一家公司投资的时候，务必确保它所售卖的产品和服务

that is hard for someone else to make a better one that you’ll switch to tomorrow.

难以被其他竞争对手所超越，不会造成顾客的流失

You also want businesses that are not particularly sensitive to outside factors,

你投资的公司还得对外部因素不太敏感

so-called extrinsic factors that you can’t control.

也就是不受人为控制的外部因素

So if a business will be affected dramatically

如果某一特定商品的价格上涨、利率出现波动或者汇率发生变化

if the price of a particular commodity goes up or if interest rates move up and down or if currency prices change.

都可能会对一家企业造成严重影响

You want a company that is fairly immune to what is going on in the world

你得投资一家大致不受外界变化影响的公司

and I'll use my Coca Cola example.

而我还是要用可口可乐作为例子

I mean if you think about Coca Cola it’s a product that has been around probably 120 years.

可口可乐已经是一个有着大约120年悠久历史的产品了

Over that period of time there have been multiple world wars, development of nuclear weapons, all kinds of unfortunate events and tragedies and so on and so forth,

这段历史中，人类历经多次世界大战，核武器的研发，以及种种不幸与悲剧

but each year the company pretty much makes a little bit more money than they made before

但可口可乐的年利润一直在稳步上涨

and they’re going to be around and you can be confident based on the history that this is a business that is going to be around

以史为荐，你可以有把握地将可口可乐视为一家永续企业

almost regardless of whether interest rates are at 14%, whether the US dollar is not worth very much or the price of gold is up or down.

利率攀升至14%、美元贬值还是金价波动都不会改变这一点

Those are the kind of companies you want to invest in, in the long term,

这样的公司才是你应当长线投资的标的

businesses that are extremely immune to the events that are going on in the world.

即对于外界事件称得上是完全免疫的公司

Another criteria, if you think back to our lemonade stand company,

还有一条标准是，以我们的柠檬水小摊公司为例

as we grew we had to buy more and more lemonade stands.

随着公司的增长我们要不断购买新的柠檬水摊位

Now those lemonade stands only cost $300 each,

每个柠檬水摊位的成本价只有300美元

but imagine a business where every time you grew you had to build a new factory to produce more and more product

但是想象一家企业，每次扩张时都得建设一座新工厂，以生产更多的产品

and those factories were really expensive.

而这些工厂的建造成本高昂

Well that company might generate a lot of cash from the business, but in order to grow

公司从生意当中也许能产生大量现金，但是为了进一步增长

you’re going to have to just reinvest more and more cash into the business.

又不得不进行再投资，在生意中投入更多的现金

The best businesses are the ones where they don’t require a lot of capital to be reinvested in the company.

最好的生意，是那些对公司的再投资资本没什么要求的生意

They generate lots of cash that you can use to pay dividends to your shareholders

这些生意能产生大量现金，可以用来向股东发放分红

or you can invest in new high-return, attractive projects.

或者投资到有吸引力的高回报新项目中去

I guess the last point I would make is that if you’re going to invest in public companies

我想说的最后一点是，如果你准备投资上市公司

it’s probably safest to invest in businesses that are not controlled.

最稳妥的是投资于无实控人的公司

A controlled company is kind of like our lemonade stand business that we took public.

有实控人的公司相当于之前例子中上市的柠檬水小摊公司

The problem with a controlled company,

有实控人的公司的问题在于

unless the controlling shareholder is someone you completely trust,

除非控股股东是你能够完全信任的人

unless there is someone that has a great track record for taking care of so-called minority investors, the non-controlling shareholders

除非他在保护所谓少数股东，即非控股股东的利益方面有着良好记录

it can be a risk of proposition to invest in that business because you’re at the whim of the controlling shareholder and

否则投资这家公司就存在风险，因为你的资金将任凭控股股东差遣

even if the controlling shareholder today is someone that you feel comfortable with 即使你认为当前控股股东的做法是可以接受的

there is no assurance that in the future they might sell control

但这并不能保证他们未来不会出让控制权

to someone else who is not going to be as supportive of the shareholders of the business.

给那些并不热衷于保护股东利益的后继者

So it’s not that you just—you can simply have a profitable business and a business that has done well.

所以并不只是——你不能光看一家企业的盈利能力和业绩表现

You have to make sure that the management and the people that control the business think about you as an owner and are going to protect your interests.

你还得确保企业管理层及相关实控人将你视为业主，并保护你的利益

So these are some of the key criteria to think about.

上述是一些需要考虑的关键标准

33:28 when to invest

33:28 投资择时

Now when are you ready to start investing money?

什么时候算是出手投资的成熟时机呢？

My guess is you’re a student.

我猜你是一名学生

You probably have student loans.

你可能背负着学生贷款

Perhaps you even have some credit card debt.

你甚至可能还有信用卡债务要还

You’re going to graduate.

你快要毕业了

You’re going to get a job.

即将参加工作

So you don’t want to jump right in and while you have a lot of debt outstanding start investing in the stock market.

当你身背诸多债务的时候，并不应该急不可耐地投身于股市

The stock market is a place to invest when you’ve got a good—

当你有接下来5年、或者10年都不会动用的余钱时

you have money you can put away that you won’t need for 5 years, maybe 10 years.

才应该考虑股市作为你的投资去处

So if you’re paying relatively high interest rates on your credit cards

所以如果你的信用卡还款利率较高

you definitely want to pay off your credit cards first before you think about investing in the stock market.

在你考虑投资股市之前，首先肯定应该还清信用卡

Your student loans are probably lower cost than your credit cards,

你的学生贷款的成本可能低于你的信用卡

but again here my best advice would be - if your student loans are costing you six or seven percent

但是我要再次重申，假设你的学生贷款利率是6%或7%

well if you pay them off it’s as if you earned a guaranteed six or seven percent return

最好还是先还贷款，因为一旦还清你就相当于赚了6%或7%的保证回报

and you’re just better off getting rid of your credit card debt and even your student loan debt

而且在你将大笔资金投入股市之前

before you commit a lot of material amount of money to the stock market.

还清信用卡甚至你的学生贷款，会让你的资金周转好上许多

even once you’ve paid off your credit card debts, perhaps you paid down your student loans,

即便你还清了信用卡，也许还还上了学生贷款

you want to have enough money in the bank

你还是应该在银行里存下足够的钱

so that even if you were to lose your job tomorrow

这样就算你明天失业下岗

you’ve got a good 6 months, maybe even 12 months of money set aside.

也能有足足6个月甚至12个月的资金满足生活所需

34:39 The psychology of investing

34:39 投资心理

So let’s talk a little bit about the psychology of investing,

让我们稍稍聊聊投资心理

So we’ve talked about some of the technical factors.

我们已经谈过了一些技术因素，

How to think about what a business is worth.

如何计算一家企业的价值

You want to buy a business at a reasonable price.

你应该以合理的价格买进一家企业

You want to buy a business that is going to exist forever,

你应该买进一家能够永久存续

that has barriers to entry, where it’s going to be difficult for people to compete with you,

坐拥“护城河”令竞争对手难以抗衡的企业

but all those things are important,

所有这些要素都很重要

and a lot of investors follow those principles.

也有许多投资者遵循那些原则

The problem is that when they put them into practice

问题是当他们践行这些原则时

and there is a panic in the world and the stock market is heading down every day

世界恰逢恐慌时期，股市连日阴跌

and they’re watching the value of their IRA or their investment account decline

他们只能眼睁睁看着自己的退休金账户或者投资账户价值不断缩水

the natural tendency is sort of to do the opposite of what makes sense.

这自然会让他们倾向于做出一些与常理背道而驰的决策

To be a successful investor you have to be able to avoid some natural human tendencies to follow the herd.

一个成功的投资者必须具有抵御人类从众天性的能力

When the stock market is going down every day you’re natural tendency is to want to sell.

当股市连日阴跌时，你的自然倾向是卖出

When the stock market is actually going up every day your natural tendency is to want to buy,

当股市节节上涨时，你的自然倾向是买进

so in bubbles you probably should be a seller.

所以在繁荣泡沫时，你应当果断卖出

In busts you should probably be a buyer

而在破灭萧条时，你应当买进

and you have to have that kind of a discipline.

并且必须养成这样的交易纪律

You have to have a stomach to withstand the volatility of the stock markets.

你必须能容忍股市的波动性

35:44 How to withstand market voltility

35:44 如何顶住股市的波动性

The key way to have a stomach to withstand the volatility of the stock market is to be secure yourself.

顶住股市波动性的关键，在于保证自身的财务稳定

You’ve got to feel comfortable that you’ve got enough money in the bank

你必须确保自己在银行中有足够多的存款

that you don’t need what you have invested unless—for many years.

让你多年无需去动用你的投资款

That’s a key factor.

这是一个关键因素

Number two, you have to recognize that the stock market in the short term is what we call a voting machine.

第二点，你必须认识到，股市在短期内其实就是一台拍拍机

It really represents the whims of people in the short term.

它确确实实代表了人们短期内的心血来潮

Stock prices are affected by many things, by events going on in the world that really have nothing to do with the value of certain companies that you’re investing in,

股票价格受诸多因素影响，其中许多外界事件与你投资的公司价值毫无瓜葛

so you’ve got to just accept the fact

所以你必须接受一个现实

that what you own can go down meaningfully in value after you buy it.

那就是买进之后你的持仓市值可能会大幅缩水

That doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve made an investment mistake.

但这并不必然说明你做了错误的投资决策

It’s just the nature of the volatility of the stock market.

股票市场波动性的本质就是如此

How do you get comfortable?

怎样才能心平气和地看待这种波动性？

Well the way you get comfortable with the volatility is you do a lot of the work yourself.

对波动性泰然处之的方法，就是亲力亲为做大量研究

You don’t just buy a stock because you like the name of the company.

你不能仅凭对公司名字的好感就买进一支股票

You do your own research. You get a good understanding of the business.

你得亲自做研究，对企业业务有透彻的理解

You make sure it’s a business that you understand.

你得确保这是一门你能够理解的生意

You make sure the price you’re paying is reasonable relative to the earnings of the company

你得确保你为之付出的价码，与公司的业绩相比是合理的

36:40 Other ways to invest

36:40其他的投资方法

Let’s say this is just not for you.

假设你对上述这一切都不感冒

I don’t want to invest, buy individual stocks.

“我不想投资，不想买进个股”

It just seems too risky.

“风险就是太大了”

I don’t have the time to do my own research.

“我也没时间自己做研究”

What are your alternatives?

还有什么其他选择吗？

Well you alternatives are to outsource your investing to others.

其实你可以把自己的投资“外包”给别人去做

You can hire a money manager or you can hire a group of money managers

你可以雇佣一位基金经理，也可以雇佣一个基金经理团队

and there are a couple of different alternatives for a startup investor.

入门投资者面前有这么几种不同选择

37:05 Mutual Funds

37:05 共同基金

The most common alternative is mutual fund companies.

最常见的选择是共同基金公司

So what is a mutual fund?

什么是共同基金？

A mutual fund is I guess technically it’s a corporation, but where you buy stock in this corporation

严格说来，共同基金是一家公司，但你要做的是买进这家公司的股票

and the manager selects a portfolio of stocks.

而基金经理们则会挑选出一套股票投资组合

So what they do is they pool together capital, money from a large group of investors.

他们做的事情其实就是把一大群投资者的资金汇聚到一个资本池当中

So say they raise a billion dollars and they take that money and they invest in a diversified collection of securities.

比如说他们募集到**10亿美元，再用这些资金投资于分散化的证券组合**

Now the benefit of this approach is that with a tiny amount of money, even less than $1,000

这种投资方法的优势是，即使你只投资了少部分钱，甚至不足1000美元

you can buy into a diversified portfolio managed by a professional manager

你也可以买进由职业经理管理的分散化投资组合

who is compensated to do a good job for you investing in the market.

而基金经理的报酬与市场投资的业绩挂钩

So mutual funds are a good potential area for investment.

所以，共同基金是潜力满满的投资领域

The problem is there are probably 7, 8,000, maybe 10,000 different mutual funds and some are fantastic and some are not particularly good,

问题是市场有7000、8000，甚至10000家以上的共同基金可供选择

so you need to do research to find a good mutual fund manager in the same way that you need to find individual stocks,

你需要像寻找个股一般去做研究，寻找优秀的基金经理

so it’s not just the easy thing of just invest in mutual funds.

所以投资共同基金绝非易事

38:04 How to pick a good mutual fund

38:04 如何挑选优秀的共同基金

so here are a few key success factors in identifying a mutual fund or a money manager of any kind to select.

下面是成功识别和挑选共同基金和基金经理的关键因素

Number one, you want someone who has an investment strategy that makes sense to you;

首先，你要能够理解基金经理的投资战略

you understand what they do and how they do it.

理解他们投资什么以及如何投资

They’re not appealing to your insecurity

如果他们尽是用一些你无法理解的复杂词汇和表述

by using complicated words and expressions that you don’t understand.

可不会让你感到安心

If they can’t explain to you in two minutes what they do and how they do it and why it makes sense

如果他们无法在两分钟内向你解释他们的投资标的、投资方式及其合理性

then it’s a strategy you shouldn’t invest in.

那么你就不应该投资他们的投资策略

Number two and this is not necessarily in this order.

其二，当然排名不分先后

This probably should be number one, is you want someone with a reputation for integrity.

也许这应该是第一点，你得找一个以诚信著称的基金经理

Again if you’re starting out

如果你只是刚起步的投资者

you probably want to invest in some of—a mutual fund that is sponsored by some of the larger mutual fund complexes

也许你该投资于一些由大型共同基金联合体担保的共同基金

as opposed to a tiny little mutual fund that is privately—by a mutual fund company that you’ve never heard of.

而不是一些不知名的私人小型共同基金

There is some benefit in the larger institutions that have—you can be more confident that they’re not going to steal your money.

大型机构的优势在于——对于他们不会盗用你的资金你可以更有信心

You want someone, an approach where the investor invests money on the basis of value.

你要找的基金经理，得具备价值投资的理念

Now this sounds kind of obvious, but value investing has a very long term track record

这听上去有点不言自明，但是价值投资的历史源远流长

and there are other kinds of investing including technical investing where people are betting on stocks based on price movements,

还存在其他的投资理念，包括根据价格波动对股票下注的技术投资

but I highly recommend against those kind of approaches.

不过我非常不推荐其他的这些投资理念

So you want someone making investments

你要找的基金经理

where they’re buying companies based on their belief that the prospects of the business will be good

得相信他们买进的公司前景一片大好

and that the price paid relative to what the business is worth represents a significant discount.

而且买进的价格相对于生意的实际价值有显著的折价

You want to invest with someone that a long term track record

你得找一位具备长期投资经验的基金经理

and I would say 5 years is the absolute minimum

要我说最短起码得有**5年的经验**

and ideally you want someone who has 10, 15, 20 years of experience investing in the markets

理想的情况下，最好是让拥有10、15甚至20年市场投资经验的投资者带带你

because there is a lot that you can learn being a long term investor in the market.

因为要成为市场上的长线投资者，你得学习很多东西

You want someone who has a consistent approach, where they haven’t changed what they do materially year by year,

你要找的基金经理得有始终如一的理念，年复一年采用同样的投资方法

that they have a stated strategy that they’ve kept to thick and thin

他们有一套泾渭分明的策略，不论牛熊坚持予以执行

that has enabled them to earn an attractive return over their lifetime as an investor

并为他们的投资者生涯赢得了丰厚的回报

and I always say in some way most importantly

还有我常说的、从某些角度而言最重要的一点

you want someone who is investing the substantial majority of their own money alongside yours.

你要找的基金经理得拿出自己的真金白银，与你的资金一同投资

You want someone whose interests are aligned with yours.

你要找的人得在利益上跟你一致

If it’s a mutual fund you want them to have a lot of money in their own mutual fund.

如果这是一家共同基金，在这支基金中他们的自有资金越多越好

If it’s a hedge fund, which is a privately sold fund for investors who have higher net worth,

如果这是一家对冲基金，即向高净值客户私人出售的基金

you want a manager who is investing alongside you as well.

你要找的基金经理最好也有自有资金与你一同投资

40:29 Finance in our lives

40:29 生活中的金融

We started with a little lemonade stand company

今天这堂课以柠檬水小摊公司为开端

and the purpose of that was to give you some of the basics on how to think about a business,

旨在教会你考察一家企业的基本知识

where the profits comes from, what revenues are, what expenses are, what a balance sheet is, what an income statement is,

利润从何产生，营收、开支、资产负债表、利润表为何

how to think about what a business is worth, how to think about what the difference between what a good business is versus a bad business,

如果估算一家企业的价值，辨别企业好坏的方法

how debt offered is generally lower risk, but lower return,

为何债务投资一般而言风险更低，回报也更低

how equity investors or investors who buy the stock or the ownership of a business

为何权益投资者，即买进股票或企业所有权的投资者

have the potential to earn more or lose more

有机会赚得更多也可能亏得更多

We use that as the background—just as the basics to get some of the vocabulary to think about investing

我们铺就了这样的背景——提供了学习投资所需的一些基本术语

and we talked about investing in the stock market.

我们也探讨了股市投资

We talked about ways to think about how to select investments, how to deal with some of the psychological issues of investing.

讨论了如何选择投资标的，如何解决投资中的部分心理问题

We covered a fair amount of ground in a relatively short period of time.

在相对短促的时间里，我们覆盖了相当多的内容

41:21 Not quite everything you need to know about finance and investing

41:21关于金融和投资你需要了解的远不止这些

Now I entitled the lecture Everything You Need to Know about Finance and Investing in Less Than an Hour.

我将这堂课命名为“一小时内关于金融和投资你需要了解的一切”

Well it really isn’t everything you need to know.

其实你需要了解的远不止这些

It’s really just an introduction and hopefully I didn’t mislead you, induce you to watch this for an hour,

这只是一堂入门课，希望我没有误导与怂恿你在这上面花费了一个小时

but there is a lot more that can be learned and there are wonderful books that can teach you on the topic,

还有太多太多可供学习的内容，在这一话题也有不少好书值得研习

so I think what is interesting about investing whether you choose this as a fulltime career or not

我认为投资的有趣之处在于，无论你选择它作为全职工作与否

if you’re going to be successful in your career you’re going to make some money

在投资生涯当中只要小有成就，你就一定能赚到钱

and how you invest that money is going to make a big difference in the quality of life that you have

而你的投资方式会大大影响你的生活品质

and perhaps that your children have or the kind of house you’re able to buy

甚至影响你的孩子的生活品质、你有能力购置的房产

or the retirement that you’re going to be able to enjoy

或者你能够享受的退休时光

and we talked about the difference between a 10% return and a 15% and a 20% return over a very long lifetime

我们探讨了长线投资中，10%、15%和20%回报率之间的天壤之别

and what impact that has in terms of how much wealth you create over the period,

以及不同回报率对你创造的财富规模的影响

so investing is going to be important to you whether you like it or not and

所以无论好恶，投资于你都至关重要

learning more about investing is going to have a big impact on your quality of life

如果你需要金钱来实现你的一些目标

if money is something that you need in order to meet some of your goals.

学习更多投资知识将极大地影响你的生活品质

42:28 Investing in your future

42:28 投资你的未来

I got interested-when I was probably 22 or 23, I started interested in being an investor大约在22、23岁时，我开始对成为一名投资者产生了兴趣

and I read a book called the Intelligent Investor was written by Ben Graham

当时我读了本杰明·格雷厄姆的著作《聪明的投资者》

and Ben Graham is a famous value investor.

本杰明·格雷厄姆是赫赫有名的价值投资者

And it’s kind of reading Jean-Paul Sartre’s Essays in Existentialism

有点像在读让-保罗·萨特的《存在主义论文集》

You read it and it's either is an epiphany and it affects the way you live your life or it's of no interest to you

要么它让你大彻大悟、改变了你的人生观，要么你对它完全提不起兴趣

and this was the equivalent

而投资也是如此

but in investing I found it fascinating

但是我觉得投资让人着迷

and what I like about investing

我觉得投资的迷人之处就在于

is it’s something very accessible even to someone who's 22 or 23

这是22、23岁左右的年轻人都可以理解的事物

What's kept me intrigued is that one of the - it's one of the few jobs where every day you can study something new,

它持续吸引我的地方在于，投资是少数能让你每天都能学到新东西的职业

you're constantly learning about new businesses, new situations, new management teams, new issues,

你持续不断地学习新生意、新情况、新管理团队和新问题

so it's infinitely challenging

所以投资确实极富挑战性

and the world stock market are obviously very dynamic places so the challenges continue

而世界股市显然是个瞬息万变的地方，不断会有新的挑战

These same concepts while they're useful in deciding how to invest your portfolio,

在做出投资组合决策时行之有效的相同概念

they're also very useful to you in thinking about decisions like buying a home, making decisions in you line of work, whether to hire additional people.

同样适用于购房决策，以及是否扩招员工等一系列工作上的决策

You know this these kinds of calculations and thought processes are helpful and they're helpful in life

此类计算方式及思维过程对生活大有裨益

and I recommend that you learn more

所以推荐你学习更多金融投资知识

Thank you for paying attention and I wish you well

感谢收看，祝一切顺遂

比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）的金融投资课程（完整版）