摩根大通:经济减速与消费税提升将使日本央行陷入困境

2018/11/28 22:13
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摩根大通在其2019年日本经济展望报告中指出,日本央行很可能等到2020年二季度前都不会改变10年期国债的收益率目标,以评估消费税提升对经济的负面影响,虽然有对金融体系的担忧,但在2020年都不会加息。

 Japan’s economic growth likely will surpass potential until 3Q19, plunge temporarily in 4Q due to the VAT hike in October 2019, and remain subdued through 2020

日本经济增长在2019年三季度前都将超过潜在水平,在四季度将因消费税提升(2019年10月)而暂时下滑,2020年将维持该趋势。

 Uncertainties, including the global growth outlook, the extent of fiscal easing, and persistent private sector caution, skew growth risks to the downside

不确定性,涵盖全球经济增长前景,财政宽松的力度以及持续的私人部门谨慎,将带来增长下行的风险。

 BoJ core CPI inflation should rise gradually toward 1%oya, but stall due to the VAT hike and global slowdown, falling far short of the 2% target: BoJ’s Volcker moment will not come

日本央行核心CPI通胀将逐步上升到1%,但随后将因消费税提升和全球经济减速而停滞,这将使得通胀无法达至2%的目标水平,日本央行的沃克尔时刻将不会来临。

 BoJ is concerned about the side effects of low-for-long rates on financial system, particularly on regional FIs

日本央行非常当心超长期低利率对金融体系的副作用,尤其是地方金融机构。

 BoJ likely will wait until 2Q20 before raising the 10yr yield target first, assessing the negative economic impact of the VAT hike, and not hike again in 2020 despite its concerns on financial system

日本央行很可能等到2020年二季度前都不会改变10年期国债的收益率目标,以评估消费税提升对经济的负面影响,虽然有对金融体系的担忧,但在2020年都不会加息。

 Combination of yen depreciation and oil price hike may prompt BoJ to raise 10yr yield target twice in 2020, as a risk scenario

日元贬值和油价上涨将促使日本央行在2020年内提升10年期国债收益率目标两次,作为风险情形。

 In a global recession the BoJ likely could ease policy to a limited extent, and prompt the government to expand spending to jointly pursue the same goals

在全球衰退的情况下,日本央行将有限宽松政策,并敦促政府以扩张开支来达到共同的目标。

 Abe addresses demographic aging and decline by allowing more foreign workers and raising max age of continued employment

安倍通过外国劳工和提升继续就业的最高年龄来解决人口老龄化和人口下降问题。

 But the government will have to tackle more, reforming immigration policy and reforming social security to alleviate growth pessimism and fuel domestic-demand-driven economic growth

但政府面临的问题更多,涵盖改革移民政策以及社保体系,以避免增长悲观情形并促进需求驱动的经济增长。