美联储FOMC利率决议及发布会笔记(2019年3月)

2019/03/21 03:18
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联储宣布不加息,并预计今年内不再加息。进一步增补资产负债表变化的细节。

精要

  1. 缩表(点击可浏览我们的缩表分析视频)将在年内终结,年底将在3.5万亿美元的规模。

  2. 强调positive outlook,但担心外部环境以及全球经济同步下行(点击链接看欧元区有多糟糕)。

  3. 强调目前无需降息。

  4. 强调通胀的对称性(即现在不算达到目标,这影响了联储的政策可信度)。

  5. 提及美国劳动参与率低(点击链接查看美国的低就业参与率问题)的可怜,需要改变这个状况来支持经济增长。

申明细节

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter.

重点:虽然就业市场强劲,但经济增长有所放缓

Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Recent indicators point to slower growth of household spending and business fixed investment in the first quarter. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation has declined, largely as a result of lower energy prices; inflation for items other than food and energy remains near 2 percent. On balance, market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months, and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

重点:居民部门支出及商业固定投资在一季度放缓。通胀在下行(能源价格所致)

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.

重点:由于外部环境的不确定因素和通胀的低迷,联储会对加息保持谨慎。(这和2016年的情况很类似

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

经济预测及点阵图变化

重点:今年与明年的经济预测小幅下调,失业率上调,通胀下调。预计今年不再加息

点阵图变化(左侧为去年12月)

有关资产负债表正常化(缩表)

In light of its discussions at previous meetings and the progress in normalizing the size of the Federal Reserve's securities holdings and the level of reserves in the banking system, all participants agreed that it is appropriate at this time for the Committee to provide additional information regarding its plans for the size of its securities holdings and the transition to the longer-run operating regime.

重点:随着缩表的推进,联储的证券持有和银行体系的准备金量正在缩减,所有FOMC成员都同意需要提供对缩表计划的增量信息,包括未来的证券持有规模以及长期操作框架的转变。

At its January meeting, the Committee stated that it intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required. The Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet Normalization released in January as well as the principles and plans listed below together revise and replace the Committee's earlier Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

重点:在1月,联储表态将仍然维持一个准备金充裕的环境来控制政策利率和其他短期利率,即现有的操作和实施框架,而非积极地通过管理准备金的供给来管理利率(就像危机前那样)。因此,需要对货币政策正常化原则和计划这一早先的文件予以以下补充。

  • To ensure a smooth transition to the longer-run level of reserves consistent with efficient and effective policy implementation, the Committee intends to slow the pace of the decline in reserves over coming quarters provided that the economy and money market conditions evolve about as expected.

  • 为了保证货币政策实施的有效性和效率,联储将放缓准备金的降低速度,来保证经济和货币市场状况如期运转。

    • In that case, the Committee currently anticipates that it will likely hold the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time. During such a period, persistent gradual increases in currency and other non-reserve liabilities would be accompanied by corresponding gradual declines in reserve balances to a level consistent with efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy.

    • FOMC预计将维持SOMA的规模(而非当前的缩减),此时,其他负债的上升——包括现钞和其他准备金负债会伴随准备金的下降而上升。

    • Beginning in October 2019, principal payments received from agency debt and agency MBS will be reinvested in Treasury securities subject to a maximum amount of $20 billion per month; any principal payments in excess of that maximum will continue to be reinvested in agency MBS.

    • 从2019年10月开始,机构债务和MBS的本金偿付以后,美联储将把这部分偿付的资金再投资到国债中,每月最高不超过200亿美元,超过200亿美元的偿付将被再投资到MBS中。

    • Principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS below the $20 billion maximum will initially be invested in Treasury securities across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; the Committee will revisit this reinvestment plan in connection with its deliberations regarding the longer-run composition of the SOMA portfolio.

    • 200亿美元会根据流通美国国债的期限结构予以分配。FOMC将审议SOMA组合的长期组成。

    • It continues to be the Committee's view that limited sales of agency MBS might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings. The timing and pace of any sales would be communicated to the public well in advance.

    • The Committee intends to slow the reduction of its holdings of Treasury securities by reducing the cap on monthly redemptions from the current level of $30 billion to $15 billion beginning in May 2019.

    • FOMC决定放缓缩表的速度,自2019年5月开始,美国国债减仓的每月上限减半,即从原先的美月最高300亿美元/月的规模放缓到最高150亿美元/月。

    • The Committee intends to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) at the end of September 2019.

    • 2019年9月,美联储将终止削减其证券持仓,即终止缩表。

    • The Committee intends to continue to allow its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to decline, consistent with the aim of holding primarily Treasury securities in the longer run.

    • 美联储倾向于继续允许缩减机构债务和MBS,以达到在长期主要持有美国国债的目标。

    • The average level of reserves after the FOMC has concluded the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings at the end of September will likely still be somewhat above the level of reserves necessary to efficiently and effectively implement monetary policy.

    • 终止缩表后的准备金量会是一个比较合意的水平,以满足货币政策的有效且高效实施。

    • When the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to this level, the SOMA portfolio will hold no more securities than necessary for efficient and effective policy implementation. Once that point is reached, the Committee will begin increasing its securities holdings to keep pace with trend growth of the Federal Reserve's non-reserve liabilities and maintain an appropriate level of reserves in the system.

    • FOMC将判断准备金的合意水平,来决定SOMA组合中的证券持有量来保障货币政策实施的有效性和效率。并据此调整(增加证券持有)来保障准备金量。

发布会环节

Q:FOMC有多担心经济?缩表是否就是联储的紧缩政策?

目前对经济仍然是positive outlook,2%的经济增长可以维持,经济基本面不错。缩表不是紧缩,对于联储而言,利率政策更重要(已经重复强调过)。

笔者注:The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2019:Q1 and 1.5% for 2019:Q2.

Q:全球经济是怎么影响到美国经济的呢?

2017年大家同步上行,现在同步下行。中欧都在下行,欧洲下行更明显。但目前仍然没看到衰退的可能性。

图:欧洲央行首席经济学家Praet提及欧元区经济疲软。

Q:联储的风险平衡是啥概念?长短期国债利差都快倒挂了。风险到底在哪?

目前来看没有降息的必要,强调positive outlook,Brexit和贸易谈判(悬而未决)就是风险。

Q:白宫和FED的经济预测数据有很大缺口,你怎么看?

没看白宫的预测,对我来说潜在增长率很难明确。要增长必须要workforce扩张,生产率上行,后者是长期因素,前者意味着我们需要鼓励人们参与劳动,美国现在的劳动参与率低得可怜。

Q:从今年2次加息到今年0次加息,现在市场都预计要降息了,会不会年底就降息了?

没看到降息必要,要耐心。

Q:你一直说positive outlook,就那么自信减速是临时性的吗?

对零售数据有点意外,其他数据还是不错的。

Q:1998年因为联储过于鸽派导致了泡沫,现在由于FED在1月转鸽,市场很兴奋,这会让你想到1998年吗?低息高估资产价格会让你担心吗?

今非昔比,现在我们监测市场和金融稳定,联储有雷达。我们有宏观审慎政策。

笔者注:点击链接可以看美联储发布金融稳定报告时鲍威尔的演讲。

Q:对资产(国债)的期限有没有结论?这会影响收益率曲线。

还在考虑,尚未决定短期和长期国债的比例。这是一个重大的决定。

Q:有关债务和债务上限,联储担心吗?

债务很重要,不能无限增长,不能快于经济增长。但短期不存在债务危机风险。

笔者注:有关债务问题鲍威尔参与了MMT纷争,有关债务上限可以点这里阅读

Q:给我一个资产负债表的规模水平(截止今年底)

3.5万亿,17%的GDP(从25%的GDP)。

图:目前不足4万亿美元规模

Q:有关通胀和工资。

提到对称性(即不到2%就可以超调),这对于央行的政策可信度而言非常重要!

笔者注:有关对称的货币政策目标,可以阅读伯老的文章《新时代的货币政策》,由智堡翻译。

您也可以观看我们的视频解读

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