2019/03/21 03:18


  1. 缩表(点击可浏览我们的缩表分析视频)将在年内终结,年底将在3.5万亿美元的规模。

  2. 强调positive outlook,但担心外部环境以及全球经济同步下行(点击链接看欧元区有多糟糕)。

  3. 强调目前无需降息。

  4. 强调通胀的对称性(即现在不算达到目标,这影响了联储的政策可信度)。

  5. 提及美国劳动参与率低(点击链接查看美国的低就业参与率问题)的可怜,需要改变这个状况来支持经济增长。


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter.


Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Recent indicators point to slower growth of household spending and business fixed investment in the first quarter. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation has declined, largely as a result of lower energy prices; inflation for items other than food and energy remains near 2 percent. On balance, market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months, and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.


Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.


In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.





In light of its discussions at previous meetings and the progress in normalizing the size of the Federal Reserve's securities holdings and the level of reserves in the banking system, all participants agreed that it is appropriate at this time for the Committee to provide additional information regarding its plans for the size of its securities holdings and the transition to the longer-run operating regime.


At its January meeting, the Committee stated that it intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required. The Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet Normalization released in January as well as the principles and plans listed below together revise and replace the Committee's earlier Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.


  • To ensure a smooth transition to the longer-run level of reserves consistent with efficient and effective policy implementation, the Committee intends to slow the pace of the decline in reserves over coming quarters provided that the economy and money market conditions evolve about as expected.

  • 为了保证货币政策实施的有效性和效率,联储将放缓准备金的降低速度,来保证经济和货币市场状况如期运转。

    • In that case, the Committee currently anticipates that it will likely hold the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time. During such a period, persistent gradual increases in currency and other non-reserve liabilities would be accompanied by corresponding gradual declines in reserve balances to a level consistent with efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy.

    • FOMC预计将维持SOMA的规模(而非当前的缩减),此时,其他负债的上升——包括现钞和其他准备金负债会伴随准备金的下降而上升。

    • Beginning in October 2019, principal payments received from agency debt and agency MBS will be reinvested in Treasury securities subject to a maximum amount of $20 billion per month; any principal payments in excess of that maximum will continue to be reinvested in agency MBS.

    • 从2019年10月开始,机构债务和MBS的本金偿付以后,美联储将把这部分偿付的资金再投资到国债中,每月最高不超过200亿美元,超过200亿美元的偿付将被再投资到MBS中。

    • Principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS below the $20 billion maximum will initially be invested in Treasury securities across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; the Committee will revisit this reinvestment plan in connection with its deliberations regarding the longer-run composition of the SOMA portfolio.

    • 200亿美元会根据流通美国国债的期限结构予以分配。FOMC将审议SOMA组合的长期组成。

    • It continues to be the Committee's view that limited sales of agency MBS might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings. The timing and pace of any sales would be communicated to the public well in advance.

    • The Committee intends to slow the reduction of its holdings of Treasury securities by reducing the cap on monthly redemptions from the current level of $30 billion to $15 billion beginning in May 2019.

    • FOMC决定放缓缩表的速度,自2019年5月开始,美国国债减仓的每月上限减半,即从原先的美月最高300亿美元/月的规模放缓到最高150亿美元/月。

    • The Committee intends to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) at the end of September 2019.

    • 2019年9月,美联储将终止削减其证券持仓,即终止缩表。

    • The Committee intends to continue to allow its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to decline, consistent with the aim of holding primarily Treasury securities in the longer run.

    • 美联储倾向于继续允许缩减机构债务和MBS,以达到在长期主要持有美国国债的目标。

    • The average level of reserves after the FOMC has concluded the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings at the end of September will likely still be somewhat above the level of reserves necessary to efficiently and effectively implement monetary policy.

    • 终止缩表后的准备金量会是一个比较合意的水平,以满足货币政策的有效且高效实施。

    • When the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to this level, the SOMA portfolio will hold no more securities than necessary for efficient and effective policy implementation. Once that point is reached, the Committee will begin increasing its securities holdings to keep pace with trend growth of the Federal Reserve's non-reserve liabilities and maintain an appropriate level of reserves in the system.

    • FOMC将判断准备金的合意水平,来决定SOMA组合中的证券持有量来保障货币政策实施的有效性和效率。并据此调整(增加证券持有)来保障准备金量。



目前对经济仍然是positive outlook,2%的经济增长可以维持,经济基本面不错。缩表不是紧缩,对于联储而言,利率政策更重要(已经重复强调过)。

笔者注:The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2019:Q1 and 1.5% for 2019:Q2.





目前来看没有降息的必要,强调positive outlook,Brexit和贸易谈判(悬而未决)就是风险。





Q:你一直说positive outlook,就那么自信减速是临时性的吗?