Was It Really the Best First Quarter in 21 Years?

这真的是21年来最好的第一季度吗?

2019/04/23 00:47
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2019年是全球股市开局最好的一年之一。

Global equities have enjoyed one of their best starts to a year in 2019. Valerie Azuelos, Managing Director at Intech, explains what Intech’s proprietary risk metrics say about stocks now.

2019年是全球股市开局最好的一年之一。Intech董事总经理瓦莱丽•阿祖埃洛斯(Valerie Azuelos)解释了Intech专有的风险指标现在对股票的看法。

Key Takeaways

关键点

  • Globally, equities delivered strong gains during the first three months of 2019, with the S&P 500® Index delivering its best first quarter in more than 20 years.
  • 全球股市在2019年前三个月强劲上涨,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)第一季度创下20多年来的最佳表现。
  • Capital concentration risk declined in many indices, as did index efficiency. Meanwhile correlation of returns increased, according to the Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor™.
  • 资本集中风险和指数效率在许多指数中都有所下降。与此同时,根据Intech股票市场压力监测™,回报率的相关性增加了。
  • As we enter the second quarter, the risk metrics tracked by the Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor™ show that global and U.S. equity markets exhibit the least amount of risk relative to other segments.
  • 随着我们进入第二季度,Intech股票市场压力监测™跟踪的风险指标显示,与其他板块相比,全球和美国股票市场的风险最小。

Yes, it really was. 2019 started with a bang.

是的,确实如此。2019年轰轰烈烈地开始了。

The S&P 500® Index just finished its best first quarter since 1998!1 In addition, the Index posted its best quarterly return overall since the third quarter of 2009, when the market was in recovery mode after the Global Financial Crisis.

标准普尔500指数刚刚结束了自1998年以来最好的第一季度!此外,该指数录得自2009年第三季以来最佳季度整体回报,当时市场在全球金融危机后处于复苏模式。

After the sharp sell-off during the fourth quarter last year, the S&P 500 Index rebounded with nearly the same magnitude, delivering a total return of 13.65% during the first quarter of 2019. Technology and other growth-oriented sectors propelled the recovery, yet more market sectors outperformed than in previous quarters, allowing for greater market participation.

经过去年第四季度的大幅抛售后,标普500指数以几乎相同的幅度反弹,在2019年第一季度实现了13.65%的总回报率。科技和其他以增长为导向的行业推动了经济复苏,但表现优于前几个季度的市场板块比前几个季度更多,因此市场参与度更高。

With more stocks participating in the rally, the capital concentration risk metric in the Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor™ is showing signs of stabilizing after being on an upward trend for more than three years. Whenever concentrations are extreme – not only high, but also low – it should be taken as a warning that a return to the norm may shock the market and be a source of volatility.

随着越来越多的股票参与此次反弹,Intech股票市场压力监测™的资本集中风险指标在经历了三年多的上升趋势后,正显示出稳定的迹象。当市场集中度达到极端水平时——不仅是高水平,而且是低水平——就应将其视为一个警告,即回归正常水平可能会冲击市场,并成为波动性的一个来源。

Our metrics show that capital concentration in large-cap growth stocks in the S&P 500 Index is decreasing slightly, relative to the fourth quarter last year. Meanwhile concentration in small-cap value stocks is increasing, moving toward median levels, a sign of stabilization in the market.

我们的指标显示,与去年第四季度相比,标普500指数成份股中大盘股的资本集中度略有下降。与此同时,小型股价值股的集中度正在上升,接近中值水平,这是市场企稳的迹象。

Source: The Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor™

资料来源:Intech股票市场压力监测™

On the other hand, correlation of returns, which measures excessive groupthink, exhibited a general increase across many equity indices. For the S&P 500 Index, that measure is now right at median levels when compared to historical observations, reflecting some normalization. Although less dramatic, non-U.S. developed and emerging markets show a similar trend for correlation of returns.

另一方面,衡量过度群体思维的回报率相关性(correlation of returns)在许多股指中普遍上升。对标普500指数而言,这一指标目前正处于历史观察值的中值水平,反映出一些正常化。虽然不那么引人注目,但非美国。发达市场和新兴市场的回报率相关性趋势相似。

Index efficiency, another risk metric in the Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor™, fell to median levels in many markets during the quarter from historical high levels. The potential to use diversification to achieve above-market outcomes with less risk is now higher.

作为Intech股票市场压力监测™的另一个风险指标,该季度许多市场的指数效率从历史高位跌至中值水平。现在,利用多样化以更低的风险实现高于市场的结果的可能性更高了。

During the quarter, total returns for virtually all developed market equity indexes were in the double digits and just shy for emerging markets. The Russell 1000® Growth Index gained the most, returning 16.10%; the S&P 500 Index gained 13.65%; the MSCI World Index℠ rose 12.65%; the MSCI EAFE® Index returned 10.13%; and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 9.95%.

第二季度,几乎所有发达市场股指的总回报率都达到了两位数,而新兴市场的回报率略显逊色。Russell 1000®增长指数涨幅最大,回报率为16.10%;标准普尔500指数上涨13.65%;摩根士丹利资本国际世界指数上涨12.65%;摩根士丹利资本国际EAFE®指数的回报率为10.13%;摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数上涨9.95%。

As we enter the second quarter of 2019, the risk metrics tracked by the Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor™ show that global and U.S. equity markets exhibit the least amount of risk relative to other segments. Non-U.S. developed indexes, particularly the MSCI Europe Index, continue to demonstrate more strain.

随着我们进入2019年第二季度,Intech股票市场压力监测™跟踪的风险指标显示,与其他板块相比,全球和美国股票市场的风险最小。美国。发达指数,尤其是摩根士丹利资本国际欧洲指数(MSCI Europe Index),继续表现出更大的压力。

Intech has been studying market stability for decades. Rather than rely solely on backward-facing measures, such as standard deviation, investors can monitor market stability by noting where an index’s risk sits relative to its historic ranges.

数十年来,Intech一直在研究市场稳定性。投资者可以通过注意指数风险相对于历史区间的位置,来监控市场的稳定性,而不是仅仅依赖于标准偏差等面向后的指标。

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