India Equity: High-Growth Opportunities in a Complex Market

印度股市:复杂市场中的高增长机会

2019/04/15 13:40
收藏
对照中文英文原文
印度高度特殊的市场需要耐心和警惕。这就是为什么我们的方法会仔细选择可以在市场周期中进行导航的公司。

If India continues to grow as fast as it has in the past two decades, the India of 2029 and 2039 will be vastly different from today as a number of megatrends shape its future. Urbanization is keeping pace – approximately 30 people are moving to cities from rural areas every minute.1 Investments in infrastructure are accelerating, helping boost industrial growth. Meanwhile, high-value exports such as pharmaceuticals and engineering goods (on top of its strong technology services exports reflect India’s global economic clout.

如果印度继续像过去二十年那样快速增长,那么2029年和2039年的印度将与今天大不相同,因为一些大趋势塑造了它的未来。城市化正在跟上步伐 - 每分钟约有30人从农村地区迁移到城市。基础设施投资正在加速,有助于推动工业增长。与此同时,药品和工程产品等高价值出口(除了强大的技术服务出口外,还反映了印度的全球经济影响力)。

While India’s long-term economic outlook appears bright, investors can’t underestimate its idiosyncrasies, which can affect the prospects of individual companies. For instance, as one of world’s largest energy users and a net oil importer, India is prone to the risk of a twin (fiscal and current account) deficit from higher oil prices. While the country has favorable demographics, skilled workers are in short supply and wage inflation is high. While the government is putting more money into infrastructure, existing transport and energy systems are still largely insufficient to cope with current demand. In addition, land is in high demand and can be difficult to acquire.

虽然印度的长期经济前景看似光明,但投资者不能低估其特质,这可能会影响个别公司的前景。例如,作为世界上最大的能源用户之一和石油净进口国,印度很容易面临因油价上涨而产生双重(财政和经常账户)赤字的风险。虽然该国人口结构良好,但技术工人供不应求,工资通胀率很高。虽然政府正在向基础设施投入更多资金,但现有的运输和能源系统仍然不足以应对当前的需求。此外,土地需求量很大,很难获得。

India Is Investing More in Infrastructure

印度在基础设施方面投入更多资金

Source: Citi Research, Various Government Reports as of 1 February 2018. 

资料来源:花旗研究,截至2018年2月1日的各种政府报告。

Given this contrast, we believe vigilance and patience will be essential to creating wealth from investing in India. That’s why our approach is to carefully select companies that can see opportunities in the shifting landscape and navigate their way through India’s transformation.

鉴于这种对比,我们相信警惕和耐心对于通过在印度投资创造财富至关重要。这就是为什么我们的方法是精心挑选能够在不断变化的环境中看到机遇并在印度转型过程中寻找机会的公司。

A smarter alternative to index investing

指数投资的更明智的替代方案

Investors in India tend to find comfort in the index, assuming that where India’s GDP growth goes, so goes the index. That hasn’t always been the case, partly because of the structure of the Indian economy, where there’s a large informal sector and many unlisted enterprises. In other words, the index can be a poor proxy for overall economic activity.

印度投资者倾向于在指数中找到安慰,假设印度的GDP增长在哪里,指数也是如此。情况并非总是如此,部分原因在于印度经济的结构,那里有大量的非正规部门和许多非上市企业。换句话说,该指数可能是整体经济活动的不良代表。

We believe that a better way to capture growth opportunities in India is by methodically constructing a portfolio without regard to the index. From a universe of approximately 7,000 listed companies2, our India Equity Strategy builds a portfolio of 30-40 stocks. Each stock portfolio passes through rigorous research and analysis focused on three fundamental areas: the strength of the company’s business model, the quality of management, and valuation. That is, we find strong businesses that are resilient through the economic cycle, we ensure they have capable management teams that can be trusted with capital, and finally, we invest if the prices are justifiable. This time-tested stock selection process is designed to mitigate permanent loss of capital for our investors.

我们认为,在印度寻找增长机会的更好方法是有条不紊地构建投资组合而不考虑指数。在大约7,000家上市公司中,我们的印度股票策略构建了30-40种股票。每个股票投资组合都经过严格的研究和分析,主要关注三个基本领域:公司业务模式的强弱,管理质量和估值。也就是说,我们发现在经济周期中具有弹性的强大企业,我们确保他们拥有能够信任资本的有能力的管理团队,最后,如果价格合理,我们会进行投资。这个经过时间考验的选股流程旨在减轻我们投资者的永久性资本损失。

A deep understanding of a company is key. Last year alone, our on-the-ground team3 traveled 80,000 kilometers across India to research and visit companies and meet management. The team4 tracks over 20 proprietary databases and leverages a variety of sources as well as the insights of the global PineBridge investment team.

对公司的深刻理解是关键。仅去年一年,我们的实地团队3在印度各地旅行了8万公里,以研究和访问公司并会见管理层。该团队4跟踪20多个专有数据库,并利用各种来源以及全球PineBridge投资团队的见解。

Opportunities across the market spectrum

整个市场范围内的机会

Our high-conviction approach results in a portfolio that’s starkly different by sector breakdown from one that replicates the benchmark (MSCI India Daily Total Return Net Index), yet is diversified.

我们的高信念方法导致一个投资组合与一个复制基准(MSCI印度每日总回报净指数)的行业细分明显不同,但是多元化。

We have found opportunities across the market spectrum – fast-growing companies that hone their digital, technological, and intellectual property advantages to expand market share, companies that stand to benefit from structural drivers such as consumption and infrastructure, and those making a turnaround.

我们在整个市场范围内找到了机会 - 快速增长的公司,他们拥有数字化、技术和知识产权优势,以扩大市场份额,受益于消费和基础设施等结构性驱动因素的公司,以及那些扭转局面的公司。

India’s transformation is likely to be accompanied by disruptions, in the form of newer business models, new regulations, and other changes. This calls for a smart playbook – investors need to look for companies able to navigate through various cycles to maximize the opportunity, while minimizing risk. The 13-year track record of our India Equity Strategy shows that the market is rich in alpha – for those who know what to look for and how to look for it.

印度的转型可能伴随着新的商业模式,新规则和其他变化等形式的破坏。这需要一个智能手册 - 投资者需要寻找能够在不同周期中进行导航以最大化机会的公司,同时将风险降至最低。我们印度股票策略的13年历史记录显示,市场上富含阿尔法 - 对于那些知道要寻找什么以及如何寻找它的人来说。

为提升阅读体验,智堡对本页面进行了排版优化 查看原文