New opportunities in Chinese bonds

中国债券的新机遇

2019/04/23 15:01
对照中文英文原文
中国的本币债券市场正在向全球投资者开放。

    China’s local-currency bond market is opening up to global investors.

    中国的本币债券市场正在向全球投资者开放。

    China’s local-currency bond market is opening up to global investors. The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index begins including yuan-denominated bonds this month, automatically adding exposure to such bonds for index investors. We favor maintaining such passive exposure and preparing to invest more.

    中国的本币债券市场正在向全球投资者开放。彭博巴克莱全球综合指数(Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index)本月开始纳入人民币计价债券,自动增加指数投资者对此类债券的敞口。我们倾向于保持这种被动敞口,并准备加大投资。

    The inclusion of local-currency government and policy bank securities into the global bond market benchmark index is set to gradually occur over a 20-month period. Those passively invested in that index will, by default, add Chinese bond exposure to their holdings – which we view as a positive. Local-currency Chinese bonds are set to make up roughly 6% of the global fixed income benchmark when the phase-in is complete. At that stage, China’s yuan currency will be the fourth-largest component in the index, behind the U.S. dollar, euro and Japanese yen. The chart above shows one reason we advocate investors maintain the inclusion exposure: Local-currency Chinese bond yields this decade have been materially higher than the average yields of the developed market bonds that make up the majority of the global bond index. See the top line in the chart above.

    以本币计价的政府和政策性银行债券将逐步纳入全球债券市场基准指数,这一过程将持续20个月。默认情况下,那些被动投资于该指数的投资者将增加他们所持中国债券的风险敞口——我们认为这是积极的。当分阶段实施完成后,以人民币计价的中国债券将占全球固定收益基准债券的6%左右。届时,人民币将成为该指数的第四大成份股,仅次于美元、欧元和日元。上面的图表显示了我们支持投资者维持纳入风险敞口的一个原因:以人民币计价的中国债券收益率在过去10年大幅高于发达市场债券的平均收益率。参见上面图表的顶线。

    A very good place to start

    这是一个很好的开始

    We see China becoming a growth turnaround story this year, as policy makers ease fiscal and monetary policies and market fears of a U.S.-China trade war dissipate (see our Q2 Global investment outlook). Improvements in the domestic economy should result in rising yields and a stable or appreciating yuan currency. Christian Carrillo of BlackRock’s Asia Pacific fixed income team sees the higher yields of Chinese bonds creating a tactical opportunity to add additional exposure in the future. His team estimates the fair value yield of 10-year Chinese government bonds will rise slightly in the second half amid positive economic data surprises and stabilizing inflation, but actual yields may rise more. Chinese bond prices may decline a bit as yields rise, but investors maintaining exposure stand to benefit from both relatively high income and potential currency gains.

    随着政策制定者放松财政和货币政策,以及市场对美国经济增长前景的担忧,我们预计中国今年将成为经济增长的转折点。国内经济的改善应该会带来收益率的上升和人民币的稳定或升值。贝莱德(BlackRock)亚太固定收益团队的克里斯蒂安•卡里洛(Christian Carrillo)认为,中国债券收益率上升,为未来增加额外风险敞口创造了战术机遇。他的团队估计,由于正面的经济数据出人意料,通胀趋于稳定,下半年中国10年期政府债券的公允价值收益率将小幅上升,但实际收益率可能上升得更多。随着收益率上升,中国债券价格可能会小幅下跌,但保持风险敞口的投资者将从相对较高的收入和潜在的人民币升值中获益。

    China’s bond market has been dominated by domestic investors, and offers diversification benefits as a result. The correlation between Chinese bond and U.S. Treasury prices has been close to zero over the past five years. This benefit may diminish over time as foreign investors’ ownership share of the market increases.

    中国债券市场一直由国内投资者主导,因此提供了多样化的好处。过去五年,中国债券和美国国债价格之间的相关性一直接近于零。随着外国投资者在中国股市所占份额的增加,这种好处可能会随着时间的推移而减少。

    What are the other risks and challenges?

    还有哪些风险和挑战?

    We believe investors who hedge their currency exposure should take a patient approach toward Chinese bonds, as hedging costs currently are significant. This could improve over time as affordable hedging instruments become available. Liquidity is also a concern, particularly for investors with shorter-term horizons. The domestic Chinese investor traditionally has had a “buy and hold” approach to investing. As more foreign investors gain access to this market and trading begins between onshore and offshore players, liquidity should improve.

    我们认为,对冲人民币风险敞口的投资者应该对中国债券采取耐心的态度,因为目前对冲成本很高。随着可负担得起的对冲工具的出现,这种情况可能会随着时间的推移而改善。流动性也是一个令人担忧的问题,尤其是对短期投资者而言。传统上,中国国内投资者的投资方式是“买入并持有”。随着越来越多的外国投资者进入这个市场,在岸和离岸参与者之间的交易开始,流动性应该会改善。

    Bottom line

    基本观点

    China’s bond market is the world’s third-largest, with about $13 trillion in outstanding bonds. We believe the market’s size, attractive yields and diversification benefits mean it cannot be ignored, similar to our view on China’s domestic equity market. We see China’s inclusion in global bond benchmarks as a key event. Understanding the market is key. We believe maintaining automatic exposures and preparing to invest more is a very good place to start.

    中国债券市场是世界第三大债券市场,拥有约13万亿美元的未偿债券。我们认为,中国股市的规模、诱人的收益率和多样化的好处意味着,它不容忽视,这与我们对中国国内股市的看法类似。我们将中国纳入全球债券基准视为一个关键事件。了解市场是关键。我们认为,保持自动风险敞口并准备加大投资是一个非常好的开始。

    Scott Thiel is BlackRock’s chief fixed income strategist, and a member of the BlackRock Investment Institute. He is a regular contributor to The Blog.

    斯科特•泰尔(Scott Thiel)是贝莱德首席固定收益策略师,也是贝莱德投资研究所(BlackRock Investment Institute)的成员。他是该博客的定期撰稿人。

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