A recovery of the European financials sector

欧洲金融业的复苏

2019/04/17 19:10
对照中文英文原文
Atlanticomnium的Gregoire Mivelaz表示,欧洲金融业看起来健康状况的原因有很多。欧洲银行的基本面和信贷质量依然强劲,监管变化提供了进一步的支持。

Last year was a challenging one for investors in European financials, with bond prices coming under severe pressure. We, however, draw comfort from the fact that when the market has endured negative years in the past it has typically gone on to see a price recovery in the following year. Moreover the companies issuing these bonds generally seem in good health from a credit standpoint; therefore we tend to resist the temptation to react to short-term volatility and do not change anything in terms of how we do things and how our portfolios look.

去年对欧洲金融投资者来说是一个具有挑战性的一年,债券价格面临巨大压力。然而,我们从这样一个事实中得到了安慰:当市场在过去经历了负收益年份时,它通常会在接下来的一年中看到价格回升。此外,从信用角度来看,发行这些债券的公司通常看起来健康;因此,我们倾向于抵制对短期波动作出反应的诱惑,并且不会改变我们的工作方式和投资组合。

So far in 2019, history has proven to be an accurate interpreter of market behaviour and positive performance has been generated in the early part of this year. Additionally, the requirement that the regulator has imposed on banks regarding their capital requirements has been a definite boost for the financial sector.

到目前为止,到2019年,历史已被证明是对市场行为的准确解释,并且在今年早些时候已经产生了积极的表现。此外,监管机构对银行的资本要求施加的要求对金融部门来说是一个明显的推动因素。

Since the implementation of capital adequacy requirements in 2012, the financial strength of European banks has improved immeasurably. Despite the challenging market conditions of the last year these institutions are now passing the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) stress tests, which was not the case even as recently as 2016 and is a welcome development. The result of such ongoing regulatory pressure is that the banks have a much bigger equity buffer, which is a positive for us as bond investors. We are now starting to consider the implications of Basel IV, which commences in 2022, but in our view nothing significant will change from the Basel III capital requirements.

自2012年实施资本充足率要求以来,欧洲银行的资金实力已有不可估量的提升。尽管去年市场条件充满挑战,但这些机构现在正在通过欧洲央行和英国央行的压力测试,即使是最近的2016年也是如此,这是一个值得欢迎的发展。这种持续的监管压力的结果是银行拥有更大的股权缓冲,这对我们作为债券投资者是有利的。我们现在开始考虑从2022年开始的巴塞尔协议IV的影响,但在我们看来,没有任何重大意义会改变巴塞尔协议III的资本要求。

Good examples of European financial institutions with strong fundamentals are HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, RBS, Barclays and Rabobank; each of these has built up their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) buffer. We have few doubts about the ability of any of these to pay either their coupon or the principal back on their subordinated debt. We anticipate that the UK banks in particular will continue to increase their equity buffer and significantly de-risk, even with the continued uncertainty around Brexit. For a bond holder that represents an extraordinary investment case, in our view; we have witnessed the likes of RBS increase its CET1 from 8.6% to 16.7% between 2013 and 2018. This continuation of banks strengthening their balance sheets is in part why we remain so constructive on the sector.

具有强大基本面的欧洲金融机构的典型例子有汇丰银行,劳埃德银行集团,苏格兰皇家银行,巴克莱银行和荷兰合作银行;这些中的每一个都构建了它们的普通股一级资本(CET1)缓冲区。我们对其中任何一方支付其优惠券或本金偿还其次级债务的能力几乎没有疑问。我们预计英国的银行将继续增加其股票缓冲并显着降低风险,即使英国退欧的持续不确定性也是如此。我们目睹了苏格兰皇家银行在2013年至2018年期间将其CET1从8.6%增加到16.7%。银行继续加强其资产负债表是我们在该行业保持如此建设性的部分原因。

Chart 1: European financials rebuilding their capital (CET1)

图1:欧洲金融业重建资本(CET1)

Source: Bloomberg, as at February 2019.

资料来源:Bloomberg,截至2019年2月。

However despite this, the perception of investors towards the financial sector remains weak (which has been amplified by many negative headlines in the press). In our view, the reason is not because of the fundamentals; the equity price of European banks has been under pressure because of profitability rather than solvency, liquidity or capital adequacy and this has resulted in an enormous disparity between returns from the equities and subordinated debt of European banks.

尽管如此,投资者对金融业的看法依然疲弱(新闻界的许多负面新闻都加剧了这种看法)。我们认为,原因不是因为基本面;由于盈利能力而不是偿债能力,流动性或资本充足率,欧洲银行的股票价格一直处于压力之下,这导致股票回报与欧洲银行次级债务之间存在巨大差异。

Meanwhile the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has been falling over the last year as it was pricing in too much growth, but we believe the underlying story remains quite strong for Europe and, again, supports our positive outlook. Unemployment is falling – last year it came down from 8.5% to 7.9% – which is helping to drive momentum and is part of the reason why domestic consumption in Europe is so strong.

与此同时,采购经理人指数(PMI)在过去一年中一直在下降,因为它定价过多增长,但我们认为欧洲的基本面仍然非常强劲,并且再次支持我们的积极前景。失业率正在下降 - 去年它从8.5%下降到7.9% - 这有助于推动势头,也是欧洲国内消费如此强劲的部分原因。

Extension risk (when a perpetual bond which has no fixed maturity does not get called and the bond needs to be re-priced) has been another concern for investors (please read our recent article for more detail) as happened in February when Santander did not call its contingent convertible bond (CoCo) as expected. Extension risk was less of a discussion point in the past because every time a bank or an insurance company issued a bond to institutional clients there was a gentleman’s agreement that the bond would always get called. However under the Basel III regulations, specific to CoCos, even if the bond is issued in a traditional way the bond does not need to be called unless there is a clear economic rationale for doing so and has therefore led to an increase in extension risk. This will continue to be a consideration when investing in CoCos, although we believe the worries are overdone and priced in, and may actually represent an opportunity. Our view is that CoCos will increasingly be priced to next call date rather than priced to perpetuity.

延期风险(当没有固定期限的永续债券未被调用且债券需要重新定价时)是投资者关注的另一个问题,就像2月桑坦德银行没有按预期称其或有可转换债券(CoCo)。扩展风险在过去不是一个讨论点,因为每当银行或保险公司向机构客户发行债券时,都会默认是可以兑付的。然而,根据巴塞尔协议III规定,特定于CoCos,即使债券是以传统方式发行的,也不需要兑付债券,除非有明确的经济理由这样做,因此导致延期风险增加。在投资CoCos时,这仍将是一个考虑因素,尽管我们认为这些担忧过度且价格过高,实际上可能代表机会。我们认为CoCos的价格会越来越高,而不是定价到永久性。

Chart 2: As spreads widened, investors priced AT1 CoCos to maturity

图2:随着利差扩大,投资者将AT1 CoCos定价至到期

Source: Bloomberg, as at February 2019

资料来源:Bloomberg,截至2019年2月

To us, the investment case for European financials remains compelling. The credit quality of companies in which we invest is generally strong and income is for the most part steady and predictable. On both an absolute and a relative basis, valuations look extremely attractive at this point in time. The combination of income and expected price recovery, stemming from both spread tightening and legacy securities being called at a profit, gives us cause for optimism going forward. Ongoing regulatory changes in the form of the Capital Requirement Regulation 2 (CRR2) and Basel IV are also likely to create further opportunities in our view.

对我们而言,欧洲金融业的投资案例仍然令人信服。我们投资的公司的信用质量通常很强,收入在很大程度上是稳定和可预测的。在绝对和相对的基础上,估值在这个时间点看起来极具吸引力。收益和预期价格复苏的结合,源于收紧利差和传统证券被称为盈利,使我们有理由对未来感到乐观。我们认为,以资本要求条例2(CRR2)和巴塞尔协议IV形式进行的监管变革也可能创造更多机会。

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