Housing, Fed Nominees, Bubbles

住房,美联储被提名人,泡沫

2019/04/24 13:14
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今晚一些快速更新。首先,新的房屋销售数据是对衰退主义者进行削减的最新数据。房屋继续反弹...

Some quick updates tonight. First and foremost, the new home sales data is the latest to cut against the recessionistas. Housing continues to rebound from the dip at the end of last year:

今晚一些快速更新。首先,新的房屋销售数据是对衰退主义者进行削减的最新数据。住房继续从去年年底的下跌中反弹:

A good story going into the back half of 2018 was that rising housing prices, both new and used, would eventually kill off some demand. Higher interest rates, less generous tax deductions, and a bit of economic uncertainty added to the stress on the sector and sales fell. Builders, now realizing they have likely sated the higher end of the market, appear to have turned their attention to lower-priced product:

进入2018年后半期的一个好故事是,新房价和二手房价格的上涨最终会扼杀一些需求。更高的利率,更少的慷慨的税收减免和一些经济不确定性增加了该部门的压力和销售下降。现在意识到他们可能已经占据市场高端市场的建筑商似乎已将注意力转向低价产品:

Lower prices help lure buyers back into the market. Note though that a housing rebound does not necessarily rule out a recession. See, for example, the 2001 recession, during which housing played no real part. Still, if the housing downturn was an important component of your recession call, you should rethink that call.

较低的价格有助于吸引买家重返市场。尽管如此,住房反弹并不一定能排除经济衰退。例如,参见2001年的经济衰退,在此期间住房并没有真正发挥作用。尽管如此,如果住房市场低迷是经济衰退期间的重要组成部分,那么你应该重新考虑这一呼吁。

As far as nominees to the Board of Governors are concerned, one down, one to go. Hermain Cain withdrew his name from consideration, apparently realizing that it was actually a job you were expected to take seriously, so you weren’t allowed to run side businesses or give paid speeches. And apparently he didn’t realize the pay wasn’t all that great relative to the prestige. Of course, there is also the issue that he would his name would be dragged through the mud again on those sexual misconduct claims.

就理事会的提名人而言,一个是下来,一个是去。 Hermain Cain从他的名字中撤回了他的名字,显然意识到这实际上是你应该认真对待的工作,所以你不被允许经营副业或发表演讲。显然他并没有意识到薪水与声望相比并不是那么大。当然,还有一个问题是,他的名字会在这些性行为不端的声称中再次被拖入泥潭。

Speaking of being dragged through the mud, Trump’s other nominee, Stephen Moore, is seeing his past catch up to him. Sam Bell, who apparently spends most of his days cataloguing Moore’s past, caught Moore saying this today:

说到被拖入泥潭,特朗普的另一名候选人斯蒂芬摩尔正在看到他过去追上他。萨姆贝尔显然用他的大部分时间编写了摩尔过去的记录,他今天抓住摩尔说:

Moore today: “they’re pulling a Kavanaugh against me…I’m taking a 68% pay cut to do this job so, you know, it’s true public service…the people who keep me going are the people who love what Trump is doing… and the prosperity that Trump is bringing” https://t.co/ohRlSsd6TT

摩尔今天说:“他们正在拉着Kavanaugh来对付我...我正在减薪68%才能完成这项工作所以,你知道,这是真正的公共服务......那些让我坚持下去的人是热爱特朗普的人做......以及特朗普带来的繁荣“https://t.co/ohRlSsd6TT

— Sam Bell (@sam_a_bell) April 23, 2019

- Sam Bell(@sam_a_bell)2019年4月23日

Of course, with Moore there are tapes. Like of him being a goldbug. And actual writings that revealed, surprise, surprise, a strong misogynistic streak; see also Jim Tankersly at the New York Times. No one should feel sorry for Moore. Still, we can’t count him out just yet; Republicans in the Senate may have a hard time deep-sixing a chief proponent for their economic agenda. Can’t really say he is sufficiently qualified to guide your economic agenda but not be part of the Federal Reserve, right?

当然,摩尔有磁带。就像他是一个金币一样。而实际的着作揭示了惊喜,惊喜,强烈的厌恶症;另见纽约时报的Jim Tankersly。没有人应该为摩尔感到难过。尽管如此,我们还不能指望他;参议院的共和党人可能很难为他们的经济议程深入探讨主要支持者。真的不能说他有足够的资格来指导你的经济议程但不能成为美联储的一部分,对吧?

On a final note, stocks rallied to a record high Tuesday. Is this good news or a bad omen? Rich Miller at Bloomberg senses concern that history may repeat itself:

最后,周二股市上涨至历史新高。这是好消息还是坏兆头?布隆伯格的Rich Miller感到担心历史可能会重演:

Some Federal Reserve policy makers seem resigned to running a heightened risk of asset bubbles and other financial excesses as they seek to keep the economic expansion going.

一些美联储政策制定者似乎已经辞职,因为他们寻求保持经济扩张,因此面临资产泡沫和其他金融过剩的风险上升。

I tend to think such concerns reflect too much recency-bias in our analysis. The last two cycles ended with asset bubbles, so this one must as well, right? My response is that Japan suffered through joint property and equity bubbles and has found it hard to recreate that dynamic despite years of ultra-low interest rates. We should be open to the possibility that we experience occasional mini-bubbles like oil shale and cryptocurrencies that have some sector specific impacts but are not economy-wide shocks.  Some bubbles just aren’t big enough to worry about from a macro perspective. The next cycle might just be a dirt-dull mild downturn like 1990.

我倾向于认为这种担忧在我们的分析中反映了过多的新近偏见。最后两个周期以资产泡沫结束,所以这个也必须,对吧?我的回答是,日本经历了共同的财产和股权泡沫,并且尽管多年的超低利率,但很难再创造这种动态。我们应该接受这样的可能性,即我们偶尔会遇到像油页岩和加密货币这样的小型泡沫,这些泡沫具有某些行业特定的影响,但并非经济上的冲击。从宏观角度来看,一些泡沫不足以让人担心。下一个周期可能只是像1990年一样的沉闷的温和衰退。

Also on bubbles, I find it interesting that the path of equities still follows the pattern that followed past rate hikes:

同样在泡沫方面,我觉得有趣的是股票的走势仍然遵循过去加息后的模式:

Doesn’t look like a late 90’s type of surge. Looks pretty average instead.

看起来不像90年代后期的浪涌。看起来相当平均。

That’s it for now.

这就是现在。

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