Why Chevron’s Purchase of Anadarko May Not Lead to a Flurry of Oil Deals

为什么雪佛龙购买阿纳达科可能不会导致一连串的石油交易

2019/04/26 16:18
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尽管雪佛龙和西方人争夺对阿纳达科的控制权,但能源分析师诺亚巴雷特表示,综合石油巨头将仔细考虑哪些二叠纪盆地资产值得加入其投资组合。

Key Takeaways

关键要点

  • We believe Chevron’s bid for Anadarko is well timed from a stock price standpoint as well as strategically, since the companies’ assets complement each other in several areas.
  • 我们认为雪佛龙对阿纳达科的收购时机从股票价格和战略角度来看都很合适,因为这些公司的资产在几个领域相互补充。
  • The Permian Basin is a strategic focus for global integrated oil companies, which want to expand their presence there, as seen by Occidental’s counter offer for Anadarko.
  • 二叠纪盆地是全球综合石油公司的战略重点,这些公司希望扩大在那里的业务,正如西方石油公司对阿纳达科的要约所示。
  • Takeover targets should be “needle movers” for the majors, which need substantial additional scale to justify any premium paid for Permian operators.
  • 收购目标应该是主要的“针头推动者”,这需要大量的额外规模来证明为二叠纪运营商支付的任何溢价。

The surge in mergers and acquisitions that some predicted would quickly follow Anadarko Petroleum’s agreement to be bought by Chevron for $33 billion may turn out to be more of a steady trickle. That’s as large integrated oil companies take time to assess their options rather than rush to snap up exploration and production (E&P) companies at any price from fear of missing out.

一些人预测的并购活动的激增将很快跟随阿纳达科石油公司(Anadarko Petroleum)以330亿美元收购雪佛龙的协议,这可能会变得更加稳定。这就像大型综合石油公司需要时间来评估他们的选择,而不是急于以任何代价抢购勘探和生产(E&P)公司,因为他们害怕错过。

Media and market commentators were quick to forecast a bidding war after Anadarko accepted a $65 per share cash and stock offer from Chevron on April 12. While the bid from the second-biggest U.S. oil company by sales and market value was topped by Occidental Petroleum’s $38 billion cash and stock offer on April 24, it doesn’t mean companies such as ExxonMobil, Total, Royal Dutch Shell or BP will now feel pressured to quickly boost at any cost their positions in the Permian Basin, the overarching rationale behind Chevron’s swoop for Anadarko.

在阿纳达科于4月12日接受雪佛龙每股65美元的现金和股票收购后,媒体和市场评论员迅速预测了竞购战。而美国第二大石油公司的销售额和市场价格的报价超过了西方石油公司38美元的报价。 4月24日,埃克森美孚公司,道达尔公司,荷兰皇家壳牌公司或英国石油公司等公司现在都感到压力,要求他们不惜任何代价迅速提高他们在二叠纪盆地的地位,这是雪佛龙公司倒闭的首要理由。阿纳达科。

Well-Timed Deal

适时的交易

Chevron’s bid is well timed. While it agreed to pay a 39% premium to Anadarko’s closing price of $46.80 the day before the deal was announced, the stock is trading at a significant discount to the $112.69 it closed at on Aug. 29, 2014.

雪佛龙的出价很合适。虽然它同意在交易宣布前一天向阿纳达科的收盘价46.80美元支付39%的溢价,但该股票的交易价格远低于2014年8月29日收盘时的112.69美元。

The tie-up also has obvious synergies.

合作也有明显的协同作用。

Anadarko’s 250,000 net acres largely abut a portion of the 2.2 million net acres Chevron holds across the Permian, the largest oil field in the U.S., which spans portions of west Texas and the southeast corner of New Mexico. That the acreage of Chevron and Anadarko is largely contiguous helps significantly with operational and logistical efficiency.

阿纳达科的净面积为250,000英亩,大部分位于雪佛龙占地220万英亩的一部分,这是美国最大的油田二叠纪,横跨德克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州的东南角。雪佛龙和阿纳达科的面积基本上是连续的,这有助于提高运营和物流效率。

Similar synergies also exist in the Gulf of Mexico, where the companies’ assets are in close proximity, while the purchase would also add Anadarko’s future liquid natural gas (LNG) project in Mozambique to Chevron’s Australian LNG business.

墨西哥湾也存在类似的协同效应,这些公司的资产非常接近,而此次收购也将使阿纳达科未来在莫桑比克的液化天然气(LNG)项目加入雪佛龙的澳大利亚液化天然气业务。

Cost Synergies

成本协同作用

In addition to run-rate cost reduction forecasts of $1 billion before tax, and capital spending cuts of $1 billion within a year of closing the purchase, Chevron expects a positive contribution to free cash flow and earnings per share a year after closing, contingent on a Brent crude price of $60 a barrel, while it also figures to bring in $15 billion to $20 billion from unspecified asset sales between next year and 2022.

除了税前10亿美元的运行费用降低预测,以及在收购完成后的一年内削减10亿美元的资本支出,雪佛龙预计在关闭后每年对自由现金流和每股收益做出积极贡献,这取决于布伦特原油价格每桶60美元,同时它也计算从明年到2022年之间从未指定的资产销售中带来150亿至200亿美元。

But those are ancillary considerations. By taking out Anadarko, Chevron is sending a signal that the Permian is a strategic imperative and no matter how substantial its presence there, it aims to get bigger.

但这些都是辅助考虑因素。通过取出阿纳达科,雪佛龙发出了一个信号,即二叠纪是一个战略要务,无论其存在多么重要,它的目标是变得更大。

Deep Benc

深本茨

The attraction of the basin is the ability to tap oil reserves in as many as eight distinct levels of rock, compared with one or two such intervals or benches in other shale formations.

该盆地的吸引力在于能够在多达八个不同水平的岩石中开采石油储量,而在其他页岩层中则有一到两个这样的间隔或长凳。

That substantially improves returns by allowing surface infrastructure to be used time and again, helping to cut the breakeven price per barrel to the mid-high $30s range for many Permian wells.

通过允许一次又一次地使用表面基础设施,大大提高了回报,有助于将每桶的盈亏平衡价格降至许多二叠纪井的30美元中高位。

However, decline rates that typically cause output to drop by up to 70% a year after a well is drilled mean significant capital is needed to maintain – let alone increase – production. That, coupled with logistical bottlenecks (such as pipeline, trucking, road, labor and oil-field services capacity constraints), means success in the Permian favors larger operators.

然而,在钻井后通常导致产量每年下降高达70%的下降率意味着需要大量资金来维持 - 更不用说增加 - 生产。这加上后勤瓶颈(如管道,卡车运输,道路,劳动力和油田服务能力限制),意味着二叠纪的成功有利于更大的运营商。

A further headwind for smaller E&Ps is the cost to develop well sites. While a typical drilling pad houses one or two wells, some companies are now putting more than 20 wellheads on a pad, which benefits those with sophisticated procurement departments because wells that are grouped closely make it more efficient to get large amounts of sand, water and other drilling services and equipment to each site. But to build out a 20-well pad demands a commitment of $100 million or more for 12 months or longer before the facility comes online, a severe impediment for smaller E&Ps.

较小的勘探与生产的进一步逆风是开发井场的成本。虽然一个典型的钻井平台有一到两口井,但一些公司现在将20多个井口放在垫上,这使得那些拥有先进采购部门的井口受益,因为密集的井可以更有效地获得大量的沙子,水和每个站点的其他钻井服务和设备。但是,要建造一个20孔的垫,需要在设施上线前12个月或更长时间内承诺1亿美元或更多,这对于较小的勘探与生产来说是一个严重的障碍。

Shopping List

购物清单

Yet the 430 or so rigs in the Permian – about half the U.S. onshore total – are currently run by about 110 individual companies, with more than 50% managing three rigs or fewer, which leaves plenty of scope for consolidation. But while there is no shortage of potential targets, an additional 20,000 or so acres doesn’t significantly improve the position of companies the size of Exxon, Occidental, BP, Shell or Total.

然而,二叠纪的大约430个钻井平台 - 约占美国陆上钻井总量的一半 - 目前由大约110家公司运营,超过50%的钻井平台管理三个或更少的钻井平台,这为整合留下了足够的空间。但是,虽然不存在潜在目标,但额外的20,000英亩土地并没有显着改善埃克森,西方,英国石油,壳牌或道达尔公司的规模。

The list of needle movers is therefore short, including Permian pure-play names such as Concho Resources, Pioneer Natural Resources, Diamondback Energy, Parsley Energy and privately held Endeavor Energy Resources. Behind those is a second tier of prospects with multi-basin exposure that includes EOG Resources, Cimarex Energy and Noble Energy.

因此,针式推动器清单很短,包括Permian纯粹名称,如Concho Resources,Pioneer Natural Resources,Diamondback Energy,Parsley Energy和私营Endeavour Energy Resources。其背后是第二层多层次的潜在客户,其中包括EOG Resources,Cimarex Energy和Noble Energy。

The issue for the majors is defending any price paid. In addition to its large acreage position, Pioneer may be of interest because of potential cost synergies: Wolfe Research projects that Pioneer’s selling, general and administrative costs per barrel will be the third-highest in a 15-company peer group in 2020. But is that enough to justify a purchase premium similar to the one Anadarko commanded on top of the 30% appreciation in Pioneer’s stock through April 16 this year?

专业的问题是捍卫任何支付的价格。除了庞大的种植面积之外,先锋可能会因为潜在的成本协同效应而受到关注:Wolfe Research预计,先锋的销售,一般和管理成本将是2020年15家公司同行中的第三高。但是这足以证明购买溢价的合理性类似于Anadarko在今年4月16日之前对Pioneer股票30%升值的指令?

Burning Lean

燃烧精益

Others on the shopping list, such as Diamondback and EOG, run fairly lean, making it tough to make cost synergy arguments for them. When it becomes difficult to claim that a new owner can make operational improvements, the question turns to scale. Integrateds might argue that the Permian is best served by a handful of large operators that can extract greater logistical efficiencies.

购物清单上的其他人,如Diamondback和EOG,运行相当精简,因此很难为他们制定成本协同论据。当声称新所有者可以进行运营改进变得困难时,问题就会变得规模化。综合人士可能认为,二叠纪最适合少数能够提高物流效率的大型运营商。

So while Chevron’s move for Anadarko will no doubt lead to the creation of a lot more spreadsheets at the large integrateds, we may not see a torrent of acquisition activity, as companies opt to carefully analyze their options to avoid overpaying for assets that they might then struggle to squeeze operational efficiencies and scale from. While the potential long-term rewards are clear, mistakes can be costly in the Permian, where hasty and expensive acquisitions can impair returns and destroy shareholder value. In the race for acreage, it may be more prudent to be the tortoise than the hare.

因此,虽然雪佛龙对阿纳达科的举动无疑将导致在大型综合企业中创建更多的电子表格,但我们可能看不到大量的收购活动,因为公司选择仔细分析他们的选择,以避免为他们可能的资产支付过高的费用努力提高运营效率并扩大规模。虽然潜在的长期回报是明确的,但二叠纪的错误可能代价高昂,仓促和昂贵的收购可能会损害回报并破坏股东价值。在种植面积的竞争中,成为乌龟可能比野兔更为谨慎。

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