Time to worry about trade wars coming to Europe?

是时候担心欧洲爆发贸易战了?

2019/04/29 22:18
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对照中文英文原文
美国和欧洲之间的贸易紧张关系可能正在升温。

Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe may be heating up. 

美国和欧洲之间的贸易紧张关系可能正在升温。

We expect a recovery in Europe’s economy later in the year. But there’s a key risk to this base case of ours: Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe may become front and center, as the two sides get ready to start trade negotiations. We would expect the direct economic fallout to be manageable, but it could have outsized market impacts.

我们预计欧洲经济将在今年晚些时候复苏。但我们的基本情况存在一个关键风险:随着美国和欧洲准备开始贸易谈判,它们之间的贸易紧张可能会成为焦点。我们预计,直接的经济影响是可控的,但它可能对市场产生巨大影响。

The market’s attention to global trade tensions has dropped off from last summer’s peaks. It now stands less than one standard deviation above the long-term average, as measured by our BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator, which scans analyst reports, financial press and tweets for keywords related to the risk. See the chart above. Our work shows that the potential market impact of a particular risk is typically larger when the market’s attention to it is low. We may have arrived at such a moment with global trade tensions: Market fears over trade tensions have calmed over recent months as the U.S. and China inch toward a trade deal. Focusing on just that–or expecting trade problems to go away with a U.S.-China trade deal – is risky. U.S. President Donald Trump appears keen to apply his “playbook” from U.S.-China negotiations–using tariffs as a key tool–to talks with the European Union (EU). European leaders have made clear that they would retaliate swiftly, and neither side is likely to back down in a hurry.

市场对全球贸易紧张局势的关注已从去年夏天的峰值有所下降。根据我们的贝莱德地缘政治风险指标(BlackRock地缘政治风险指标)衡量,目前该指数比长期平均水平高出不到一个标准偏差。见上图。我们的研究表明,当市场对某一特定风险的关注度较低时,该风险对市场的潜在影响通常更大。我们可能已经到达了全球贸易紧张局势的这样一个时刻:近几个月来,随着美国和中国逐步达成贸易协议,市场对贸易紧张局势的担忧有所缓解。只关注这一点,或者期望美国能解决贸易问题美中贸易协定是有风险的。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普似乎热衷于运用他在美国的“剧本”中国与欧盟的谈判以关税为主要工具。欧洲领导人已经明确表示,他们将迅速采取报复行动,双方都不太可能迅速做出让步。

A bumpy road ahead

前方道路坎坷

We expect the European economy to pick up pace in the second half of 2019. Financial conditions have eased significantly since the start of the year, and China’s stimulus efforts could boost capital spending–a potential boon for Europe’s manufacturers. The pressure on growth from some one-off factors last year (such as Germany’s auto production shortfalls) may be subsiding. An economic recovery would help underpin European stocks, a laggard in global markets for the majority of the post-crisis period. European stocks are trading at a 12% discount to developed market peers. But high-quality stocks including multinationals are trading at a premium to the rest of European market, while the structurally challenged sectors are at a discount.

我们预计欧洲经济将在2019年下半年加快步伐。自今年初以来,金融状况已明显好转,中国的刺激措施可能会刺激资本支出——这对欧洲制造商来说是一个潜在的利好。去年一些一次性因素(如德国汽车产量不足)对经济增长的压力可能正在消退。经济复苏将有助于支撑欧洲股市。在后危机时期的大部分时间里,欧洲股市在全球市场上表现落后。欧洲股市目前的交易价格较发达市场同行有12%的折扣。但包括跨国公司在内的优质股票的交易价格高于欧洲其它市场,而面临结构性挑战的行业则处于折价状态。

Trade talks between the U.S. and EU are set to start, after the two parties had put a tariff tit-for-tat on hold in July 2018. The negotiation objectives laid out by the two sides have highlighted some key challenges. For example: Greater market access for agricultural products is a key focus for the U.S.–and explicitly excluded from the scope of the talks by the EU. Potential U.S. tariffs on Europe-made vehicles are another focus. The direct impact from any auto tariffs on Europe’s growth would likely be contained, according to studies by the IMF and by the European Central Bank (ECB). Heated trade tensions between the two also would likely have global implications. We see the full impact on the European–and global–economies as potentially larger if trade tensions led to a hefty shock to confidence and a material tightening of financial conditions, as they did in 2018. If the growth outlook did worsen, we see European policymakers as having limited fire power to support the economy. The ECB has little room to further ease its monetary policy. And high debt levels mean many countries (except Germany) are already running out of headroom to deliver substantial fiscal stimulus.

美国和欧盟之间的贸易谈判将于2018年7月开始,此前双方曾在2018年7月就关税问题针锋相对。双方提出的谈判目标凸显了一些关键挑战。举例来说,扩大农产品的市场准入是美国的一个重点——并明确被排除在欧盟谈判的范围之外。美国对欧洲产汽车可能征收的关税是另一个焦点。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)和欧洲央行(ECB)的研究,任何汽车关税对欧洲经济增长的直接影响都可能得到遏制。中美两国之间紧张的贸易关系也可能对全球产生影响。我们认为,如果贸易紧张局势像2018年那样对信心造成巨大冲击,并导致金融状况实质性收紧,那么对欧洲和全球经济的全面影响可能会更大。如果增长前景确实恶化,我们认为欧洲政策制定者支持经济的火力有限。欧洲央行几乎没有进一步放松货币政策的空间。高债务水平意味着许多国家(德国除外)已经没有空间实施大规模财政刺激。

Bottom line

要点

Investors should not mistake a U.S.-China trade deal for a resolution of global trade tensions, as the U.S. ITS turning his focus to Europe. Political risks including trade tensions keep us cautious toward European risk assets, even as we see signs of green shoots emerging in the European economy. We prefer to take equity risk in other regions such as the U.S. and emerging markets.

投资者不应误解美国随着美国将注意力转向欧洲,中国与美国达成了一项旨在解决全球贸易紧张局势的贸易协议。包括贸易紧张在内的政治风险让我们对欧洲风险资产保持谨慎,尽管我们看到欧洲经济出现了复苏迹象。我们更愿意在美国和新兴市场等其他地区承担股票风险。

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