Time to invest in emerging markets?

是时候投资新兴市场了?

2019/05/04 02:45
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对照中文英文原文
温和的美联储(Fed)、稳定的美元以及中国的刺激措施,这三者的合力,可能会推动新兴市场的表现超越美国

The global macroeconomic backdrop for emerging markets (EM) has improved. Additionally, there is a strengthening case for EM outperformance from the combination of the Fed pausing in the rate hiking cycle, a steady dollar, and de-escalation of trade tensions with China. Moreover, valuations are supportive and fundamentals are stabilizing. Given these positive developments, the MSCI EM Index is up 12% from the market bottom at the end of October, of which 8% came since U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech in January.1 Even as EM has rebounded, QMA believes there are still sufficient positive catalysts to support a continued rally. In a recent market commentary, QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions team explained its more positive EM stance and detailed how the pre-conditions (summarized below) for the outperformance of EM equities seem to be lining up.

新兴市场的全球宏观经济背景有所改善。此外,由于美联储暂停加息周期、美元走稳以及与中国的贸易紧张局势有所缓和,新兴市场的表现更有可能优于中国。此外,估值具有支持性,基本面正在企稳。鉴于这些积极进展,摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数上涨了12%在10月底市场底部。尽管新兴市场反弹,QMA相信仍有足够的积极的催化剂支持持续反弹。在最近的一篇市场评论中,QMA的全球多资产解决方案团队解释了其更为积极的新兴市场立场,并详细说明了新兴市场股票表现优异的先决条件(概述如下)似乎正在形成。

Stabilizing macroeconomic forces

稳定宏观经济力量

A strong catalyst for outperformance of emerging markets has been a stabilization in macroeconomic forecasts, thanks to tailwinds from low commodity prices, especially oil, that benefit EM commodity-poor nations such as India. Also, the OECD expects global growth to pick up in 2020 to 3.4% from 3.3% expected in 2019.2 Furthermore, many idiosyncratic factors that weighed on markets last year, such as election uncertainty in Mexico and Brazil, are behind us, providing further optimism on the outlook for EM.

新兴市场表现优异的一个有力催化剂是宏观经济预测趋稳,这得益于大宗商品(尤其是石油)价格走低带来的有利因素,印度等大宗商品匮乏的新兴市场国家因此受益。此外,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)预计,2020年全球经济增长将从2019.2年的3.3%升至3.4%。此外,去年令市场承压的许多特殊因素,如墨西哥和巴西的选举不确定性,已成为过去,这为新兴市场的前景提供了进一步的乐观。

A dovish Fed and steady U.S. dollar

温和的美联储和稳定的美元

After steadily raising rates for three years and spooking markets with hawkish rhetoric in October of last year, the Fed raised interest rates one more time in December. It then surprised markets in January by hinting at a pause in the rate-hiking cycle, and emphasizing both patience and newfound flexibility on the shrinkage of its balance sheet. Given this dovish shift, fed fund futures are now pricing in no rate hikes this year and a cut in 2020.

在连续三年稳步加息,并在去年10月以鹰派言论惊吓市场之后,美联储在12月再次加息。今年1月,该公司暗示加息周期将暂停,并强调了其资产负债表收缩的耐心和新发现的灵活性,令市场感到意外。鉴于这一温和转变,美联储基金期货目前预计今年不会加息,2020年也不会降息。

A lower interest-rate trajectory in the U.S. also translates into a reversal of the financial flows from the U.S. toward higher-yielding EM countries, weakening the U.S. dollar (USD) and propping up EM currencies. A dovish Fed offers support for EM currencies and halts appreciation of the USD. Indeed, this was the case back in 2016 and appears to be the case this year. The J.P. Morgan EM FX Index bottomed in September, but after the speech by Powell at the beginning of January that signaled the start to a more “patient” Fed stance, it increased by about 1.5%.

美国利率下降也意味着资金从美国流向高收益新兴市场国家的趋势逆转,美元走软,新兴市场货币走强。温和的美联储为新兴市场货币提供支持,并阻止美元升值。事实上,2016年的情况就是如此,今年似乎也是如此。摩根大通新兴市场外汇指数(J.P. Morgan EM FX Index)在9月份触底,但在鲍威尔1月初的讲话之后,该指数上涨了约1.5%。鲍威尔的讲话表明美联储开始采取更为“耐心”的立场。

China stimulus

中国的刺激

With the economy slowing, business confidence sagging and non-performing loans rising, China initiated a stimulus program in mid-2018 that started with monetary measures such as rate cuts and continued with fiscal policy and credit easing. QMA believes China will do whatever it takes to stimulate its economy and expects the impact will become more evident as we move through 2019.

随着经济放缓、企业信心下降和不良贷款上升,中国在2018年年中启动了一项刺激计划,从降息等货币措施开始,到财政政策和信贷放松。QMA相信,中国将尽一切努力刺激经济,并预计随着2019年的到来,其影响将变得更加明显。

  • The U.S. and China are making progress on a trade deal. Regardless of whether the deal is substantive in addressing underlying structural issues or just a temporary cessation of hostility, it would likely benefit China and the rest of the EM world.
  • 美国和中国正在一项贸易协议上取得进展。无论该协议是实质性地解决根本的结构性问题,还是只是暂时停止敌意,它都可能使中国和其它新兴市场国家受益。
  • Despite a still slowing economy, there have recently been “green shoots,” including a large increase in overall social financing growth (which contains shadow lending), rising Caixin/Markit combined PMI composite with the new-orders component moving into expansion territory, and accelerating home price growth for Tier 2-4 cities.
  • 尽管经济仍在放缓,但近期出现了“绿芽”,包括整体社会融资(包括影子贷款)大幅增长,财新/Markit综合PMI指数不断上升,新订单分项进入扩张区域,以及2-4线城市房价加速上涨。
  • China is a major destination for many emerging market exports. Once China’s economy stabilizes and/or accelerates, the multiplier impact on EM economies and EM corporate profits could be substantial.
  • 中国是许多新兴市场出口的主要目的地。一旦中国经济企稳和(或)加速,对新兴市场经济体和新兴市场企业利润的乘数效应可能是巨大的。

Compelling valuation

引人注目的估值

EM equities are inexpensive, trading at a 12-month trailing P/E of 12.8x, which is slightly below the 10-year average. Historically, at this starting level of valuations, EM equities have delivered an average return of 15% over the next 12 months. Not only are EM equities inexpensive relative to their own history, but also relative to developed markets, trading at a roughly 27% discount, which is slightly above its historical average discount.

新兴市场股票价格低廉,过去12个月的往绩市盈率为12.8倍,略低于10年平均水平。从历史上看,在这一估值起点,新兴市场股票在未来12个月的平均回报率为15%。新兴市场股票不仅相对于它们自身的历史而言便宜,而且相对于发达市场也便宜,目前的折让率约为27%,略高于历史平均折让率。

Meanwhile, earnings expectations for EM have come down from a lofty 15% in the beginning of 2018 to 7%, and show signs of bottoming. Current expectations are also a lower hurdle for upside surprise. With supportive valuations and sensible earnings expectations, EM is looking increasingly more attractive.

与此同时,新兴市场的盈利预期已从2018年初的15%降至7%,并显示出触底迹象。目前的预期也降低了意外上涨的门槛。由于估值具有支持性,盈利预期合理,新兴市场正变得越来越有吸引力。

MSCI EM P/E vs. average return over the next 12 months

MSCI新兴市场未来12个月的市盈率与平均回报率之比

Source: QMA, MSCI, FactSet. Data from 1/1/99 to 2/28/19 for MSCI EM Index.

资料来源:QMA, MSCI, FactSet。MSCI新兴市场指数由1/1/99至2/28/19的数据。

Positive macroeconomic developments underpinned by attractive valuations of EM equities and a stabilization in GDP growth forecasts make a compelling case for emerging markets. However, risks remain, including a much deeper slowdown in global growth, a breakdown in trade talks, or the Fed pivoting to a more aggressive stance in response to more positive U.S. growth or an inflation surprise. Yet, on balance, QMA believes that the risks are skewed to the upside and EM equities are an attractive value proposition, offering an ample risk premium.

新兴市场股票的估值颇具吸引力,加上GDP增长预期企稳,支撑了宏观经济的积极发展,这为新兴市场提供了令人信服的理由。然而,风险依然存在,包括全球经济增长进一步放缓,贸易谈判破裂,或美联储转向更为激进的立场,以应对美国经济增长更为积极或通胀意外。然而,总的来说,QMA认为,风险偏向于上行,新兴市场股票是一个有吸引力的价值主张,提供了充足的风险溢价。

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