Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve

没有菲利普斯曲线的凯恩斯主义经济学的一些国际证据

2019/05/04 04:15
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没有菲利普斯曲线的凯恩斯主义经济学的一些国际证据

Abstract: Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-model for three separate samples using U.S., U.K. and Canadian data. We estimate versions of both models that restrict the parameters of the private sector equations to be the same for all three countries. Our preferred specification is the constrained version of the FM-model which has a marginal data density that is more than 30 log points higher than the NK alternative. Our findings also demonstrate that cross-country macroeconomic differences are well explained by the different shocks that hit each economy and by differences in the ways in which national central banks reacted to those shocks.

摘要:Farmer and Nicolo(2018)表明,在战后美国的数据中,Farmer Monetary (FM)-模型优于three-equation new - keynes (NK)-模型。在本文中,我们用美国的方法比较了三种不同样本的nk -模型的确定和不确定版本的边际数据密度与fm -模型的边际数据密度,英国和加拿大的数据。我们估计这两种模型的版本都限制了所有三个国家的私营部门方程参数相同。我们首选的规范是fm模型的约束版本,它的边缘数据密度比NK高30多个日志点。我们的研究结果还表明,各国宏观经济的差异可以很好地解释为每个经济体受到的冲击不同,以及各国央行对这些冲击的反应方式不同。

Keywords: Bayesian methods, General Equilibrium, Indeterminacy, International business cycles, Keynes, Monetary policy, Phillips Curve

关键词:贝叶斯方法,一般均衡,不确定性,国际商业周期,凯恩斯,货币政策,菲利普斯曲线

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