Improving Labor Force Participation

提高劳动力参与率

2019/05/06 09:43
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对照中文英文原文
尽管人口趋势可能保持积极,但随着劳动力市场趋紧,更多的参与行为——尤其是与残疾和疾病相关的参与行为——会发生多大程度的转变,目前仍不清楚。

Without question, the U.S. labor market has tightened a lot over the last few years. But a shifting trend in labor force participation—and especially a rise in the propensity to seek employment by those in their prime working years—seems to be relieving some labor market pressure.

毫无疑问,美国劳动力市场在过去几年里收紧了很多。但劳动力参与率的变化趋势——尤其是黄金工作年龄人群的就业倾向上升——似乎正在缓解劳动力市场的一些压力。

From the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019, the labor force participation (LFP) rate among prime-age workers (those between 25 and 54 years old) increased by about 1.5 percentage points (see the chart below), adding about 2 million workers more than if the participation rate had not increased.

从2015年第一季度到2019年第一季度,对于那些壮年劳动力(25到54岁)的参与率增加了1.5(见下图),如果参与率不增加,相当于增加了大约200万名工人。

Changes in the distribution of the prime-age population in terms of age, education, and race/ethnicity toward groups with higher participation rates and away from groups with lower rates accounts for about a third of the rise in the overall prime-age LFP rate. The other two thirds can be pinned on an increase in LFP rates within demographic groups—what we call "behavioral" effects.

壮年人口在年龄、受教育程度和种族等方面的分布向参与率较高的群体和远离参与率较低的群体的变化,约占壮年劳动力参与率总体增幅的三分之一。另外三分之二可以归因于人口群体内参与率的增长——我们称之为“行为”效应。

Of the increased participation behavior within demographic groups, there has been a decline in the share of the prime-age population that say they want a job but are not actively looking for work at the moment. We refer to these individuals as the "shadow labor force" because even though they are not in the labor force this month, they have a relatively high propensity to have a job next month. Second, there's been a decline in the share of the prime-age population that are not participating because they are too sick or disabled to work. The contribution of the change in behavior in these two categories (as well as several others from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019) are shown in the following chart, which is taken from the Atlanta Fed's Labor Force Participation Dynamics tool.

在人口群体内参与行为的增加中,壮年人口中说自己想要工作但目前没有积极找工作的比例有所下降。我们把这些人称为“影子劳动力”,因为即使他们这个月不在劳动力大军中,但他们下个月的就业倾向相对较高。其次,由于身体虚弱或残疾而无法工作的壮年人口比例有所下降。以下图表显示了这两类人(以及2015年第一季度至2019年第一季度的其他几类人)行为变化的贡献,该图表取自亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Atlanta Fed)的劳动力参与动态工具。

In contrast, consider the period from the first quarter of 2008 through the first quarter of 2015, a time when the rate of prime-age LFP declined by almost 2 percentage points. During that period, even though slow-moving demographic changes were putting modest upward pressure on the prime-age participation rate, that support was more than swamped by negative changes in participation rates within demographic groups. The following chart shows the relative contributions of these behavioral changes.

相比之下,从2008年第一季度到2015年第一季度,壮年劳动力参与率下降了近2个百分点。在此期间,尽管缓慢的人口变化造成了适度的上升压力,但这种支持被人口群体参与率的负面变化所抵消。下面的图表显示了这些行为变化的相对贡献。

Within demographic groups, the increased incidence of being too sick or disabled to work stands out as the largest contributor to the decline in prime-age labor force participation between 2008 and 2014.

在人口统计群体中,2008年至2014年壮年劳动力参与率下降的最大原因是,因病或残疾而无法工作的发生率上升。

Since 2014, prime-age LFP has benefited from the movement of both demographics and participation behavior. But so far, less than half of the overall behavioral decline between 2008 and 2014 has been reversed.

自2014年以来,壮年劳动力参与率受益于人口统计和参与行为的变化。但到目前为止,2008年至2014年的总体行为下降中,只有不到一半得到了扭转。

Though demographic trends are likely to remain positive, how much more participation behavior—especially as it is related to disability and illness—can shift as the labor market tightens remains unclear. The share of the prime-age population too sick or disabled to work had been on a rising trend for the decade prior to the last recession, suggesting that there may be some deeper and structural health-related issues that could keep the disability/illness rate elevated despite an increasingly tight labor market.

尽管人口趋势可能保持积极,但随着劳动力市场趋紧,更多的参与行为——尤其是与残疾和疾病相关的参与行为——会发生多大程度的转变,目前仍不清楚。过去十年,疾病或残疾太过严重以至于无法工作的壮年劳动力比例相比于衰退前上升,表明除了劳动力市场日益收紧之外,有其他更深层次的结构性健康问题导致残疾/疾病率高企。

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