Inflation Expectations Are Higher – and Will Probably Keep Rising

通胀预期更高 - 并且可能会持续上涨

2019/05/09 21:38
对照中文英文原文
我们看到当前货币和财政政策言论可能支持更高通胀的原因。

Breakeven inflation rates have ticked up in recent months. But is this a temporary phenomenon, or the beginning of a more persistent trend? While PIMCO expects inflation pressures to remain relatively subdued, we see a few reasons why the current monetary and fiscal policy rhetoric are likely to support higher inflation.

最近几个月,盈亏平衡通胀率已经上升。但这是暂时的现象,还是更持久的趋势的开始?尽管PIMCO预计通胀压力将保持相对低迷,但我们认为当前货币和财政政策言论可能支持通胀上升的原因有几个。

Cracks in the old theories

旧理论中的裂缝

The post-crisis reconstruction of the financial system that began over a decade ago has yielded mixed results globally. Risk assets clearly experienced a renaissance of sorts as investors strove to keep up with even modest price appreciation in a zero to negative interest rate regime. However, central banks, armed with tools to influence financial markets rather than the “real economy,” were unable to deliver the levels of inflation – and the associated benefits – that their models had indicated. Income inequality gaps have broadened precipitously, and many wonder if the Phillips curve (which postulates an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment) is broken, as global unemployment reaches new lows.

十多年前开始的金融体系危机后重建在全球范围内取得了不同的结果。风险资产显然经历了各种复兴,因为投资者努力跟上零到负利率制度中即使是适度的价格升值。然而,拥有影响金融市场而不是“实体经济”的工具的中央银行无法提供其模型所表明的通货膨胀水平及相关收益。收入不平等差距急剧扩大,许多人怀疑菲利普斯曲线(假设通货膨胀与失业之间的反比关系)是否会被打破,因为全球失业率达到新的低点。

Doubts about central banks’ ability to produce inflation on their own, along with concerns about the fragility of the architecture used to engineer the financial markets’ reconstruction, raise a deeper question. Is inflation support solely a monetary phenomenon, or does it need reinforcement from somewhere else?

对于中央银行自身产生通胀的能力以及对用于设计金融市场重建的架构的脆弱性的担忧,提出了一个更深层次的问题。通货膨胀是仅仅支持货币现象,还是需要从其他地方加强?

It doesn’t feel like a stretch to say that with technological advancements and globalization, many of the closed-system theories and formulas trusted by academics are no longer achieving their expected results. The need to go beyond the standard toolkit of policy actions with extraordinary measures during the crisis was the first evidence that the models may be out of date. Recognizing this, Federal Reserve officials recently announced plans to formally review the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices, with announcements to come in 2020.

如果说随着技术的进步和全球化,学术界信任的许多封闭系统理论和公式不再能达到预期的效果,那就不足为奇了。危机期间需要超越政策行动的标准工具包以及特殊措施,这是模型可能已经过时的第一个证据。认识到这一点,美联储官员最近宣布计划正式审查联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的货币政策战略,工具和沟通实践,并将于2020年公布。

Potential outcomes favor higher inflation

潜在的结果有利于通胀

While PIMCO and most Fed watchers do not expect a radical change in the Fed’s approach, we think its tone will likely be supportive of a higher inflation environment. This is in contrast with previous strategy reviews, which have focused on suppressing inflation.

虽然PIMCO和大多数美联储观察人士预计美联储的做法不会发生根本变化,但我们认为其基调可能会支持更高的通胀环境。这与先前的战略评估相反,后者的重点是抑制通货膨胀。

Meanwhile, calls for coordinated fiscal and monetary policy – including, at the extreme, the emergence of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) amid rising populism – have become much more frequent.

与此同时,呼吁采取协调一致的财政和货币政策 - 包括极端的现代货币理论(MMT)在民粹主义不断上升的情况下出现 - 变得更加频繁。

We believe positioning for potential higher inflationary outcomes is attractively priced in the context of these realities. Among the potential outcomes is an approach in which the Fed lets inflation run above target temporarily, while fiscal policy continues to be accommodating. Given that neither of the major U.S. political parties appears to be striving for austerity, we will be watching for potential increases in fiscal spending, regardless of who is in power, in an effort to promote sustained and higher growth and thereby boost the neutral rate of interest (r*). This scenario, too, would be a departure from historical norms: Monetary policy typically has served as a counterbalance to fiscal expansion, to prevent excess.

我们认为,在这些现实背景下,定位潜在的较高通胀结果具有吸引力。潜在的结果之一是美联储允许通胀暂时高于目标,而财政政策继续宽松。鉴于美国主要政党似乎都没有追求紧缩政策,我们将关注财政支出的潜在增长,无论谁掌权,以促进持续和更高的增长,从而提高中性利率(r *)。这种情况也与历史规范背道而驰:货币政策通常起到抵消财政扩张的作用,以防止过剩。

Key takeaways

关键要点

We believe that whether the Fed takes a new approach on its own or we see a more coordinated government approach, both scenarios are fraught with execution risk. At a minimum, including these scenarios in the range of reactions raises the number of potential higher inflation outcomes.

我们认为,无论美联储是单独采取新方法还是我们看到更加协调的政府方法,这两种方案都充满了执行风险。至少,在反应范围内包括这些情景会增加潜在的更高通胀结果的数量。

A rise in inflation expectations is one logical market reaction to the potential for Fed and fiscal policy shifts, and we have indeed seen an expansion of breakeven inflation rates so far this year. Some of the rise likely reflects recovery from a painful December, which means the 20-basis-point move in 10-year U.S. Treasury breakevens in 2019 to date could just be the beginning.

通胀预期的上升是对美联储和财政政策转变潜力的一种合乎逻辑的市场反应,我们确实看到今年迄今为止的盈亏平衡通胀率有所扩大。一些上涨可能反映了12月痛苦的复苏,这意味着到目前为止,2019年10年期美国国债盈亏平衡收益率的20个基点上升可能只是一个开始。

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