Three questions about emerging economies

关于新兴经济体的三个问题

2019/05/07 00:00
对照中文英文原文
新兴经济体是否会继续推动全球增长?四个主要声音分享他们的观点。

Recent research from the McKinsey Global Institute analyzed the per capita GDP growth of 71 economies over 50 years. The results were striking. About one in four were “outperformers,” with real annual per capita GDP growth of 3.5 percent for the entire period; 11 of these achieved annual per capita GDP growth of at least 5.0 percent between 1995 and 2016.

麦肯锡全球研究所最近的研究分析了50年来71个经济体的人均GDP增长率。结果引人注目。大约四分之一的人是“表现优异者”,整个时期人均GDP实际年增长率为3.5%;其中11项在1995年至2016年期间实现了至少5.0%的年人均GDP增长。

Are these outperformers the secret to future global growth? What challenges will they face?

这些表现优异者是未来全球增长的秘诀吗?他们将面临哪些挑战?

To answer these questions on emerging markets, the McKinsey Global Institute spoke with Peter Henry, the dean emeritus of New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business and William R. Berkley professor of economics; Acha Leke, a senior partner at McKinsey; Anu Madgavkar, a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute; and Rakesh Mohan, senior fellow at the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs at Yale University and distinguished fellow at Brookings India. The following is a transcript of their responses.

为了回答这些关于新兴市场的问题,麦肯锡全球研究院采访了纽约大学Leonard N. Stern商学院院长兼经济学教授William R. Berkley的Peter Henry。 Acha Leke,麦肯锡的高级合伙人;麦肯锡全球研究所的合伙人Anu Madgavkar;耶鲁大学杰克逊全球事务研究所高级研究员,布鲁金斯印度杰出研究员,Rakesh Mohan。以下是他们回复的记录。

Can emerging economies continue to drive the global economy?

新兴经济体能否继续推动全球经济?

Anu Madgavkar: The emerging economies led by the outperformers have certainly been very strong engines of global growth in the past, accounting for maybe two-thirds of overall global growth. We think that in the future, they certainly have the potential to continue being important engines of growth. It depends on their ability, or the ability of the economies that haven’t grown so rapidly, to raise their productivity levels to something like 4.0 percent to 4.5 percent per year. If that were to happen, the emerging economies could contribute something like $11 trillion of incremental GDP by 2030, which is like adding a whole new economy of the size of China to the global GDP.

Anu Madgavkar:由表现优异者领导的新兴经济体过去一直是全球增长的强劲引擎,占全球总体增长的三分之二。我们认为,在未来,它们肯定有可能继续成为增长的重要引擎。这取决于他们的能力,或者没有快速增长的经济体的能力,将他们的生产力水平提高到每年4.0%到4.5%。如果发生这种情况,新兴经济体到2030年可能会贡献11万亿美元的增量GDP,就像在全球GDP中增加一个中国规模的新经济。

Acha Leke: If you look at where the consumers are going to be, they’ll be predominantly in emerging economies, and actually predominantly in Africa. If you look at where the resources are today, the resources tend to also be in emerging economies. When you look at political and macroeconomic stability, which is important for growth, a lot of these economies are experiencing a lot more stability. So, I fundamentally believe that the future growth of the world will come from these emerging economies. And you know, six out of the ten fastest growing economies today are in Africa. And I expect that will continue.

Acha Leke:如果你看看消费者将会在哪里,他们将主要在新兴经济体,而实际上主要在非洲。如果你看看今天的资源在哪里,资源往往也在新兴经济体。当你看到对增长很重要的政治和宏观经济稳定时,很多这些经济体正在经历更多的稳定。因此,我从根本上认为,世界未来的增长将来自这些新兴经济体。你知道,今天发展最快的10个经济体中有6个在非洲。我希望这种情况会持续下去。

Peter Henry: Services are going to be a much more important part of the path forward for emerging economies than they were in the in the past. And that’s going to mean that emerging economies are going to need to be more flexible, have stronger enabling environments, because the path will be a little bit less linear than it was for the first set of countries that industrialized. So, this is going to really require a different playbook as it were, a different set of growth strategies.

彼得亨利:服务将成为新兴经济体前进道路中比其过去更为重要的一部分。这意味着新兴经济体需要更加灵活,拥有更强大的扶持环境,因为这条路径将比第一批工业化国家的线路略微不那么线性。所以,这真的需要一个不同的剧本,一套不同的增长策略。

Rakesh Mohan: One thing to remember is that the Chinese economy is something like eight times, probably, in terms of size what it was in 1990. What was ten percent growth in terms of volume growth now is equivalent to something like 1 percent or 2 percent growth in volume terms. Even if China slows down from the last 30 years of 10 percent growth to something like 5 percent or even 4 percent growth, in terms of the volume growth, and the extra demand that it places on the rest of the world, it will be that much more important, and effective, in pulling up the whole world. India and China alone, in the next 15 years, will provide incremental demand equivalent to the demand from all of Western Europe and United States in the 1980s and 1990s. So, in that sense, the context is different, but probably more positive rather than negative.

Rakesh Mohan:有一点需要记住的是,中国经济大概是八倍,可能就像1990年的规模一样。现在,数量增长百分之十的增长相当于1%或2%数量增长百分比。即使中国从过去30年的10%增长放缓至5%甚至4%的增长,就数量增长而言,以及它对世界其他地区的额外需求,也将是拉起整个世界更重要,更有效。在未来15年,仅印度和中国将提供相当于20世纪80年代和90年代西欧和美国所有需求的增量需求。因此,从这个意义上说,背景是不同的,但可能更积极而不是消极。

How does the changing global context affect the outlook for emerging economies?

不断变化的全球环境如何影响新兴经济体的前景?

Acha Leke: Well, the global context is definitely changing. We can see definitely a lot more protectionism emerging, and not just in the US, by the way, around a number of countries around the world which, you know, I personally believe could actually have an impact on growth.

Acha Leke:嗯,全球背景肯定在变化。我们可以肯定地看到更多的保护主义正在出现,顺便说一下,在全球许多国家,不仅仅是在美国,我个人认为,这实际上可能会对增长产生影响。

Anu Madgavkar: The share of south–south trade went up from about eight percent of global trade in goods to about 20 percent over the period of ten to 15 years. This really means that emerging economies have to look for new areas of focus in terms of building bridges or being parts of value chains, not just with advanced economies but also some of the larger emerging economies that are driving consumption or driving trade, such as China and India.

Anu Madgavkar:南南贸易的份额从全球商品贸易的约8%上升到10至15年期间的约20%。这实际上意味着新兴经济体必须在建立桥梁或成为价值链的一部分方面寻找新的重点领域,不仅是发达经济体,还有一些正在推动消费或推动贸易的大型新兴经济体,如中国和印度。

Peter Henry: Trade is a positive-sum game, not a zero-sum game—unless, of course, you engage in trade wars. And one of the real dangers in the short run is that we’ll see a repeat of the kind of fall we saw in global trade around the global financial crisis. My own view is that this is going to be a temporary phenomenon. I’m confident that the world will eventually return to openness, because there really is no other choice if you want sustained prosperity. But the danger is that it may take us a while to relearn that lesson.

彼得亨利:贸易是一个正和游戏,而不是零和游戏 - 当然,除非你参与贸易战。从短期来看,真正的危险之一就是我们会看到在全球金融危机期间全球贸易中出现的那种下跌重演。我个人认为,这将是一个暂时的现象。我相信世界最终会回归开放,因为如果你想要持续繁荣,别无选择。但危险在于重新学习这一课可能需要一段时间。

Rakesh Mohan: It seems to me that the people who sort of posit the death of employment and manufacturing are barking up the wrong tree. The incremental demand is going to be such that if 3.5 billion people, each of them, buys one pair of shoes extra every year, or two shirts every year, or two trousers every year, that’s tremendous demand. So yes, of course, automation will make a difference. Yes, of course greater technology and manufacturing will make a difference. I’ve been to clothing factories in Bangladesh. And it’s very impressive in the use of technology compared to what they used to be. But, nonetheless, the incremental demand is going to be such that many of the emerging markets will continue to be able to grow through manufacturing and exports.

Rakesh Mohan:在我看来,那些假定就业和制造业死亡的人正在咆哮着错误的树。增量需求将是如此,如果每年有35亿人每年额外购买一双鞋,或者每年购买两件衬衫,或者每年购买两条裤子,那就是巨大的需求。当然,是的,自动化将有所作为。是的,当然,更高的技术和制造将有所作为。我去过孟加拉国的服装厂。与以往相比,它在使用技术方面令人印象深刻。但是,尽管如此,增量需求将会使许多新兴市场继续通过制造业和出口增长。

Outperformers: High-growth emerging economies and the companies that propel them

表现优异:高增长的新兴经济体和推动它们发展的公司

What are key opportunities and challenges for emerging economies in the years ahead?

未来几年新兴经济体面临的主要机遇和挑战是什么?

Peter Henry: 1.2 billion people in the world still don’t have access to power and 900 million of them live in these countries whose working-age populations are growing at roughly 3 percent per year. That’s a major challenge, but it’s also an opportunity, frankly not just for emerging economies, but for advanced economies. Another challenge for emerging economies will be educating their labor forces. It’s going to be critical that their workers be more numerate and more literate than they have been in the past. Raising the level of average level of human capital will be a very important part of the growth agenda for emerging economies.

彼得亨利:世界上仍有12亿人无法获得权力,其中有9亿人生活在这些工作年龄人口每年增长约3%的国家。这是一个重大挑战,但它也是一个机会,坦率地说,不仅对新兴经济体而且对发达经济体而言。新兴经济体面临的另一个挑战是如何教育他们的劳动力。至关重要的是,他们的工人比过去更具有计算能力和文化能力。提高人力资本平均水平将是新兴经济体增长议程中非常重要的一部分。

Rakesh Mohan: There are quite a few challenges, actually. First, the waning confidence of the West in the liberal economic order that they established after the Second World War. It’s possible that may be a passing phase, but we don’t know that yet. But it’s certainly the case right now. And just as there’s an increasing protectionism to do with trade, there could be increasing protectionism to do with capital flows. That has all kinds of impacts to do with macroeconomic management.

Rakesh Mohan:实际上有很多挑战。首先,西方对第二次世界大战后建立的自由经济秩序的信心逐渐减弱。这可能是一个过渡阶段,但我们还不知道。但现在肯定是这样的。正如贸易保护主义越来越多,可能会出现与资本流动相关的越来越多的保护主义。这对宏观经济管理有各种影响。

Acha Leke: Technology is interesting. We’re starting to see many of these technologies emerge, take off in some countries including in Africa. Today, we can distribute blood, but through drones. It’s happening in Rwanda already. We have solar home systems that have created a whole new set of activities where people are now entrepreneurs selling these solar home systems in the villages. I think on one hand we’re worried that technology is going to destroy some jobs, but we’re starting to see it actually create a whole new category and different sets of jobs in emerging markets.

Acha Leke:技术很有趣。我们开始看到许多这些技术出现,在包括非洲在内的一些国家起飞。今天,我们可以通过无人机分发血液。它已经在卢旺达发生了。我们拥有太阳能家庭系统,创造了一系列全新的活动,人们现在是在村里销售这些太阳能家庭系统的企业家。我认为一方面我们担心技术会破坏一些工作,但我们开始看到它实际上在新兴市场创造了一个全新的类别和不同的工作岗位。

Anu Madgavkar: Government effectiveness, based on our research, is a very key ingredient of success for the outperformer economies. What is interesting is that government effectiveness is not necessarily high to begin with. What is more important is the positive trajectory, or the movement, or the momentum, on a whole range of aspects of government effectiveness. This includes regulatory quality, or the quality of government services provided to businesses and to citizens, the rule of law, and so forth. The outperformers are at different levels of government effectiveness, but nearly all of them have shown a positive trajectory, and that is something that any emerging economy can and should do.

Anu Madgavkar:基于我们的研究,政府效率是表现最好的经济体成功的关键因素。有趣的是,政府效率并不一定高。更重要的是政府效率的一系列方面的积极轨迹,或运动或动力。这包括监管质量,或向企业和公民提供的政府服务质量,法治等。表现优异者的政府效率处于不同的水平,但几乎所有这些都表现出积极的发展轨迹,这是任何新兴经济体能够而且应该做的事情。

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