Do President Trump’s trade threats spell doom for markets?

特朗普总统的贸易威胁是否会给市场带来厄运?

2019/05/09 04:36
对照中文英文原文
在达成协议之前,投资者将不得不根据官员的评论和关于闭门审议的谣言来应对大幅波动。

Market excitement about a resolution to the long-running U.S.-China trade dispute built ahead of (what were rumored to be) the final round of negotiations this week. However, comments from President Trump midday Sunday helped to dash that optimism. He threated to raise tariffs further if negotiators do not speed up their progress toward a resolution. Chinese officials promptly threatened to delay and shorten their visit for these negotiations, or to cancel their trip altogether. Since these threats, China has agreed to a shortened meeting for deliberations later this week and the U.S. administration plans to move forward with raising tariffs this Friday.

市场对于解决长期存在的美中贸易争端感到兴奋,该争议是在本周的最后一轮谈判之前建立起来的(传闻称)。然而,周日中午特朗普总统的评论有助于突显这种乐观情绪。如果谈判代表没有加快解决方案的进展,他就会进一步提高关税。中国官员立即威胁要推迟和缩短他们对这些谈判的访问,或者完全取消他们的旅行。由于这些威胁,中国已经同意在本周晚些时候进行缩短的审议会议,美国政府计划在本周五提高关税。

This rise in tensions, in an already-fragile relationship, were not well received by markets, especially since many investors were expecting a resolution in the near future. China’s onshore equity market (measured by the CSI 300) started Monday -3.5% down from its last trading session on April 30 (China’s major bourses were closed last Wednesday through Friday for the Labor Day holiday) and slid a further -2.3% in Monday’s session before stabilizing Tuesday. S&P 500 futures dropped 1.4% ahead of Monday’s open and the index had fallen -2.1% by Tuesday’s close.

在一个已经脆弱的关系中,紧张局势的加剧并未得到市场的好评,特别是因为许多投资者期待在不久的将来达成一项决议。中国境内股票市场(以沪深300指数计算)周一开始比4月30日的最后一个交易日(中国主要股市于上周三至周五因劳动节假期休市)下跌-3.5%,并在周一进一步下跌-2.3%会议在周二稳定之前。标准普尔500期货在周一开盘前下跌1.4%,该指数在周二收盘时下跌了-2.1%。

This episode highlights that trade tensions are not truly resolved until a deal is signed, sealed and delivered. Until an agreement is finalized, investors will have to contend with large swings in sentiment based on the commentary of officials and rumors about closed-door deliberations.

这一集强调,在签署,盖章和交付交易之前,贸易紧张局势并未得到真正解决。在达成协议之前,投资者将不得不根据官员的评论和关于闭门审议的谣言来应对大幅波动。

Currently, the U.S. charges tariffs of 10% and 25% on $50 billion and $200 billion of Chinese imports, respectively. In retaliation, China imposed tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on almost all U.S. imports (roughly $120 billion). These tariffs have had a cooling effect on trade between the U.S. and China, particularly in the agricultural sector, as China is one of the largest purchasers of U.S. farm output. Additionally, the products currently facing tariffs are predominately intermediate goods, which has raised producer costs across various industries.

目前,美国分别对500亿美元和2000亿美元的中国进口产品征收10%和25%的关税。为了报复,中国对几乎所有美国进口产品(约1200亿美元)征收5%至25%的关税。这些关税对美国和中国之间的贸易产生了降温效应,特别是在农业领域,因为中国是美国农业产量的最大购买者之一。此外,目前面临关税的产品主要是中间产品,这提高了各个行业的生产成本。

As part of Sunday’s comments, President Trump echoed threats made last year, threatening to raise the existing 10% tariff to 25% and to apply tariffs of 25% to all remaining imports from China (roughly $293 billion, using 2018 import values). Other U.S. officials have since confirmed that they plan to implement the ‘raising the tariff rate from 10% to 25%’ portion of these threats this Friday. Applying new tariffs to all U.S. imports from China will take much longer, as new tariffs require a lengthy administrative process.

作为周日评论的一部分,特朗普总统回应了去年的威胁,威胁要将现有的10%关税提高到25%,并对所有剩余的中国进口产品征收25%的关税(约合2930亿美元,使用2018年的进口值)。此后,其他美国官员证实他们计划在本周五实施“将关税率从10%提高到25%”。由于新的关税需要漫长的行政程序,对从中国进口的所有美国进口新关税将需要更长的时间。

U.S. and Chinese policymakers have held several rounds of talks since the November 2018 G20 summit, when President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last met to discuss trade. These talks have covered a wide range of topics, theoretically in the lead up to a broader trade deal between China and U.S. All policymakers insist they have made progress on a variety of issues, but some have noted that enforcement—or how the U.S. will ensure China complies with the agreement—remains a contentious issue. Notably, in the last round of talks, the U.S. apparently softened its language around cyber-theft, a key Chinese demand, smoothing the way for a final deal in the near future. However, the same round of talks ended acrimoniously after the U.S. side is rumored to have perceived China as backing away from commitments it made around removing State subsidies for certain industries, leading to the U.S. accusing China of reneging on their deal, resulting in these latest threats.

自2018年11月G20峰会以来,美国和中国政策制定者举行了几轮会谈,特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平上次会面,讨论贸易问题。这些谈判涵盖了广泛的主题,理论上是在中美之间达成更广泛的贸易协议。所有决策者都坚持认为他们在各种问题上取得了进展,但有些人已经注意到执法 - 或者美国将如何确保中国遵守协议 - 仍然是一个有争议的问题。值得注意的是,在上一轮会谈中,美国显然在围绕中国需求的网络盗窃方面软化了语言,为近期的最终交易铺平了道路。然而,在传闻美方认为中国放弃了对某些行业取消国家补贴的承诺后,同一轮会谈激烈地结束,导致美国指责中国违背交易,导致这些最新威胁。

Investment implications

投资影响

In our view, reaching a deal by this Friday was too optimistic a timeline, especially given that a number of difficult issues reportedly remain under discussion. At the same time, progress does appear to have been achieved, and regardless of Sunday’s comments, it is possible that the teams could have something ready for the heads of state to sign in June.

我们认为,在本周五达成协议的时间表过于乐观,特别是考虑到一些困难问题仍在讨论中。与此同时,似乎已经取得了进展,无论周日的评论如何,团队都有可能为6月份的国家元首做好准备。

While many wonder about the motivation behind these latest threats, investors should remember that these leaders each have to deal with domestic political pressures and there is an advantage to be seen to be driving a hard bargain. We should all be wary of over-interpreting officials’ commentary. However, the potential for more tariffs or that this trade dispute may drag on even longer is not a welcome development. Investors may want to buckle up for a volatile week.

虽然许多人对这些最新威胁背后的动机感到疑惑,但投资者应该记住,这些领导者每个人都必须应对国内的政治压力,并且有一个优势可以被视为推动了一场艰难的讨价还价。我们都应该警惕过度解释官员的评论。然而,更多关税的可能性或这种贸易争端可能拖延更长时间并不是一个受欢迎的发展。投资者可能希望扭亏为盈。

We still expect negotiations to eventually result in a larger trade deal. At this point, the substance of such a deal is an open question, but harsher rhetoric catering to a domestic audience is unsurprising as policymakers get closer to a deal. Presidents Xi and Trump are likely to meet again in late June at another G20 Summit, which could be a natural venue for signing a trade deal. In the meantime, markets will react to rumors and rhetoric until we have something of substance to consider.

我们仍然期望谈判最终会导致更大的贸易协议。在这一点上,这样一笔交易的实质内容是一个悬而未决的问题,但随着政策制定者越来越接近达成交易,对国内受众的更为严厉的言论并不令人惊讶。习主席和特朗普总统可能会在6月底再次举行G20峰会,这可能是签署贸易协议的自然场所。与此同时,市场将对谣言和言论作出反应,直到我们考虑到一些实质内容。

为提升阅读体验,智堡对本页面进行了排版优化 查看原文