Settle In, Disney's Next Act Is About to Begin

“复联4”过后,迪士尼的“下一阶段”即将开演

2019/05/09 13:18
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对照中文英文原文
尽管上一季度表现惊人,但对于志在成为流媒体巨头的迪士尼集团来说这却连起步都算不上。

In the movie of Walt Disney Co.’s dramatic journey to become a full-fledged streaming company, last quarter wasn’t even the opening previews. It was the time when investors were merely buttering their popcorn.

尽管上一季度表现惊人,但对于志在成为流媒体巨头的迪士尼集团来说这却连起步都算不上。

Disney on Wednesday reported revenue and earnings per share for the three months through March that exceeded analysts’ estimates, as ESPN reaped higher fees from cable-TV providers and guests of the company’s theme parks and resorts spent more money during their stays.

迪士尼周三公布了今年截至3月份的收入和每股收益,二者均超过了分析师的预期,主要原因之一是ESPN从有线电视提供商手中收取了更高的费用;另一个则是其主题公园和度假村的客人在逗留期间花了更多的钱。

The Good Old Days

好日子一去不复返

Disney's theme parks and streaming divisions saw the biggest growth last quarter, but its profits are still dependent on traditional pay TV

迪士尼的主题公园和流媒体部门在上个季度实现了最大的增长,但其利润仍然依赖于传统的付费电视

The results were upbeat, but at the same time they do little to distill Disney’s current state of affairs. That’s because they cover a period of time that doesn’t include the three game-changing events of its year – perhaps its lifetime:

尽管数据不错,但还没有反映出迪士尼真正的实力:这份数据取自今年的三大利好 - 或许说是迄今为止出现的三个最大利好 - 发生之前。

  • the record-crushing release of “Avengers: Endgame” in April,
  • 四月份“复仇者联盟:终局”的破纪录发布,
  • the openings of its Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge destinations at Disneyland this month and Disney World in August, and
  • 迪斯尼的两座星战主题乐园 - 星球大战:银河边缘 - 预计在本月和今年八月开放,
  • the coming launch of the Disney+ streaming app on Nov. 12, the product at the center of CEO Bob Iger’s vision for the future of Disney. 
  • 即将于11月12日推出的Disney+流媒体应用程序,该产品是首席执行官Bob Iger对迪士尼未来规划的核心。

Even Iger’s prepared comments in the earnings release glossed over the latest quarter and instead focused on what’s to come:

甚至艾格在收益发布会中也将重点放在了上季度的表现而非对未来的规划上:

We’re very pleased with our Q2 results and thrilled with the record-breaking success of “Avengers: Endgame,” which is now the second-highest grossing film of all time and will stream exclusively on Disney+ starting December 11th.

我们对第二季度的成绩感到非常满意,并对“复仇者联盟:终局”的破纪录成功感到非常兴奋,这部电影现在是有史以来第二高的电影,并将于12月11日起在Disney+平台上独家播放。

In the less than two weeks that “Avengers: Endgame” has been playing in theaters, ticket sales have already surpassed $2.27 billion globally. That’s just a few hundred million dollars away from leapfrogging “Avatar” as the biggest film of all time. It’s also the centerpiece of an extraordinary slate from Disney this year, with “Aladdin” and “Toy Story: 4” hitting the box office in just a few weeks, followed by “The Lion King,” “Artemis Fowl” and “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil.” Then, “Frozen 2” and “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” will take fans through the holiday season.

在过去两周的时间里,“复仇者联盟:终局”一直在剧院上演,全球票房已超过22.7亿美元。距离超越“阿凡达”这一有史以来最卖座的电影仅差几亿美元。它也是迪士尼今年规划的核心拼图,而在计划中的影片还有将在未来几周内继续冲击票房 的“阿拉丁”和“玩具总动员4”,接着是“狮子王”,“阿特米斯的奇幻历险”以及“沉睡魔咒2”。当然,还有“冰雪奇缘2”和“星球大战9:天行者崛起”将伴随粉丝度过假期。

It’s such a feat that I’ve questioned whether Disney is setting a bar it may not reach again, or at least not for a long time. The company said this week that the release of “Avatar 2” – a franchise it now owns thanks to the acquisition of 21st Century Fox’s film assets – has been delayed until the end of 2021. And after “The Rise of Skywalker,” its next “Star Wars” movie isn’t until December 2022. The sparser schedule of blockbusters aside, Disney is also putting all of its new films on Disney+ instead of licensing them for big bucks to Netflix Inc. and others.

我也曾怀疑过,眼下的大获成功是否将标杆定的太高,以至于在后来很长的时间内迪士尼都无法重现这样的壮举。该公司本周表示,由于收购了21世纪福克斯的电影资产,它现在所拥有的“阿凡达2”的发行已被推迟到2021年底。并且在“星战9”之后,它的下一个“星球大战”电影直到2022年12月才开始播放。除了未来数量稀少的大片,迪士尼还决定将影片设为Disney+独播,而拒绝让Netflix等公司参与其中。

It’s just one example of how Disney’s bet on streaming will hurt other lines of revenue in the coming years, shortfalls that Disney+ won’t be able to offset until its subscriber count reaches mass and turns profitable. By the company’s own projection, Disney+ won’t start making money until 2024. Last quarter, the newly formed direct-to-consumer and international division lost $393 million, reflecting the cost of investing in Disney+ and ESPN+, as well as Hulu continuing to bleed money.

上述这些只是迪士尼在流媒体上的豪赌如何损害其他部门未来几年利益的例子之一,Disney+在其订户数量达到一定规模并且开始盈利之前无法弥平这些损失。根据公司自己的预测,迪士尼+将在2024年之前都不会开始赚钱。上个季度,新成立的消费者直接对接及国际部门损失了3.93亿美元,包括了投资Disney+和ESPN +的成本,更别提持续亏损的Hulu视频网了。

No Pain, No Gain?

舍不得孩子套不着狼?

MoffettNathanson analysts see the unit that houses Disney's streaming apps losing nearly $5 billion next year, dragged down primarily by Disney+ and Hulu

MoffettNathanson的分析师认为,迪士尼流媒体应用程序部门明年将损失近50亿美元,主要受迪士尼+和Hulu拖累

Adding to the effects Disney’s shift will have on its financial results, there’s also the potential impact on culture and morale. The businesses that have long been core to Disney may instead start to function more like veins supplying content and resources to the new heart of the company: digital-video apps. While the Disney team sorts through this new process, it’s also working to integrate the assets and employees that came from its $85 billion Fox deal, which closed in March. (Fox Corp. reported its own results after the close of trading on Wednesday, its first time doing so as a slimmed-down entity focused entirely on news and sports. )

除此之外,迪士尼的转变将对其财务业绩产生影响,同时也会对公司文化和士气产生潜在影响。数字视频业务将取代迪士尼原来的核心业务,成为集团的新心脏,而老业务则更像是血管,向新核心源源不断地输送内容和资源。而迪士尼团队也在推动这一进程,它正努力整合那些从三月份价值850亿美元的福克斯收购案中得到了员工和资产(福克斯公司在周三交易结束后公布了自己的情况,在剥离了原有业务后,福克斯将成为一家完全专注于新闻和体育的公司)

Disney’s latest period was good, yet relatively insignificant given all the changes afoot. But take your seats, because the feature presentation will soon begin.

迪士尼的近况不错,但考虑到它即将面临的变化,却还有些不够。但别着急,毕竟好戏就要开演了。

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