The roots of U.S. stocks out-performance

分析美国股市表现

2019/05/13 16:39
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美国股市今年继续走出危机后的趋势,表现优于世界其他地区,贝莱德全球配置团队组合经理Russ Koesterich解释了原因。

Written by Russ Koesterich, CFA Portfolio Manager for BlackRock’s Global Allocation Team

由BlackRock全球分配团队的CFA投资组合经理Russ Koesterich撰写

Continuing the post-crisis trend, U.S. stocks have outperformed the rest of the world this year. 

美国股市今年继续走出危机后的趋势,表现优于世界其他地区。

By most metrics this has been a remarkable year for investors. Stocks are up more than 15%, their best start in decades. Nor is it just stocks. The risk-adjusted return (Sharpe Ratio) on a typical stock/bond portfolio is producing similarly spectacular results. But while the magnitude of year-to-date returns is clearly abnormal, in another sense 2019 resembles the post-crisis norm: U.S. equities are outperforming the rest-of-the-world (ROW).

从大多数指标来看,这对投资者来说是非常值得的一年。股票上涨增长超过15%,是几十年来最好的开端。而且不只是股票表现优异。典型股票/债券投资组合的风险调整回报率(夏普比率)正在产生类似的惊人结果。虽然年初至今的回报幅度显然是不正常的,但在另一种意义上,2019年类似于危机后的模式:美国股市表现优于世界其他地区(ROW)。

As has been the case in previous years, the out-performance of U.S. stocks over most other markets is being driven by a mix of better earnings growth and relentless multiple expansion (see Chart 1). Since 2010, the S&P 500 Index has outperformed (on a price basis) the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Index by an average of 70 basis points (bps) a month, a statistically significant difference.

与前几年的情况一样,美国股市在大多数其他市场上的表现正好受到盈利增长和估值扩张的影响(见图1)。自2010年以来,标准普尔500指数的每月表现(以价格为基础)优于MSCI ACWI除美国指数平均70个基点(bps),这一差异有统计学意义。

While investors have become accustomed to this state of affairs, it was not always the case. In the period between 1990 and the end of 2009, the return differential between U.S. and non-U.S. equities was much smaller. During that period the average monthly performance spread was 22 bps, the median, which is less influenced by extreme observation, an even more insignificant 8 bps.

虽然投资者已经习惯了这种状况,但情况并非总是如此。在1990年至2009年底期间,美国和非美国股票之间的回报差异要小得多。在此期间,平均每月表现差异为22个基点,中位数受极端观察的影响较小,甚至更微不足道的8个基点。

All of this raises the question: Why have U.S. stocks been perennial out-performers since the financial crisis? There are many potential explanations, but one simple one is profitability.

所有这一切提出了一个问题:为什么美国股市自金融危机以来常年表现优异?有许多潜在的解释,但一个简单的解释是盈利能力。

During the “aughts” decade, the average spread in profitability, measured by the return-on equity (ROE) between the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI ACWI-ex-U.S. Index was roughly 1.5%. Not only was the spread relatively narrow, but those years witnessed a prolonged period, leading up to and including the financial crisis, when profitability was higher outside of the United States.

在本世纪前十年,标准普尔500指数与MSCI ACWI除美国指数之间的回报率(ROE)衡量的平均盈利率差异约为1.5%。不仅利差范围相对狭窄,而且这些年份经历了漫长的时期,导致并包括金融危机,当时美国以外的股市盈利能力较高。

Things have changed post-crisis. Since the beginning of 2010 the average ROE spread between the two indexes has widened to 3.7%. Just as important, since the start of the decade, there has not been a single month when U.S. corporate profitability was below the ROW. Put differently, not only have U.S. companies been significantly more profitable than their non-U.S. counterparts, but excess U.S. profitability has been consistently more reliable in the post-crisis environment.

危机后情况发生了变化。自2010年初以来,两个指数之间的平均回报率差距已扩大至3.7%。同样重要的是,自本十年开始以来,美国企业盈利能力低于世界其他地区的时间还不到一个月。换句话说,不仅美国公司的盈利能力明显高于非美国公司,而且在危机后的环境中,美国的盈利能力一直更加可靠。

Faster growth the key

关键是增长更快

Why this should be the case is not hard to understand. U.S. growth, while below the pre-crisis norm, has been consistently faster than Europe and Japan, particularly when you compare nominal growth, i.e. the rate of growth before adjusting for inflation. Faster growth supports higher operating leverage.

为什么会出现这种情况并不难理解。美国经济增长虽然低于危机前的标准,但一直比欧洲和日本快,特别是当比较名义增长时,即在调整通货膨胀之前的增长率。更快的增长支持更高的运营杠杆。

The U.S. is also increasingly home to the world’s marquee companies in technology and communications, companies that tend to be consistently more profitable than the broader market. A quick example illustrates the point. The top three companies in the S&P 500 are Microsoft, Apple and Amazon. Their average ROE is 39%. By contrast, the top three companies in Europe–Total, SAP and LVMH–have an average ROE of 14%. Perhaps it’s not such a mystery why U.S. companies, despite materially higher valuations, continue to outperform.

美国也涌现出越来越多的世界杰出技术和通信领域的大公司,这些公司往往比大盘更有利可图。一个简单的例子说明了这一点。标准普尔500指数中排名前三的公司是微软,苹果和亚马逊。他们的平均净资产收益率为39%。相比之下,欧洲前三大公司 -Total,SAP和LVMH--的平均净资产收益率为14%。也许这并不是一个谜:美国公司虽然估值大幅上升,但仍然表现优异。

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