Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment

美国的失业率低估了吗?

2019/05/15 12:21
对照中文英文原文
研究发现,通常的统计数据将失业率和劳动力参与率低估了约两个百分点。

Abstract: The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate, labor-force participation rate, and duration of unemployment are calculated contain numerous internal contradictions. This paper catalogs these inconsistencies and proposes a reconciliation. We find that the usual statistics understate the unemployment rate and the labor-force participation rate by about two percentage points on average and that the bias in the latter has increased since the Great Recession. The BLS estimate of the average duration of unemployment overstates by 50 percent the true duration of uninterrupted spells of unemployment and misrepresents what happened to average durations during the Great Recession and its recovery.

摘要:计算美国失业率、劳动力参与率和失业持续时间的基础数据包含着大量的内部矛盾。本文对这些不一致之处进行了分类,并提出了相应的解决方案。我们发现,通常的统计数据平均将失业率和劳动力参与率低估了约两个百分点,而自“大衰退”以来,后者的偏见有所增加。劳工统计局对平均失业持续时间的估计,将连续失业的真实持续时间夸大了50%,并错误地描述了大衰退及其复苏期间的平均持续时间。

Keywords: Labor-force participation rate, Measurement errors, Unemployment duration, Unemployment rate

关键词:劳动力参与率,测量误差,失业持续时间,失业率

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