Introduction

介绍

John Maynard Keynes is credited with saying, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Over the past decade, policymakers across the globe have been focused on getting their economies and financial systems back in order. But at the same time, a sea change in supply-side realities has taken place. These changes have redefined what is achievable, and challenged conventional wisdom on monetary policy.

凯恩斯曾说，“当现实改变了，我会改变想法，而阁下会如何做？“在过去的十年里，全球的政策制定者一直专注于恢复经济和金融体系。但与此同时，供给侧的现实发生了翻天覆地的变化。这些变化重新定义了可实现的目标，并挑战了货币政策的传统观念。

Shifting demographic trends and a slowdown in productivity are driving slower trend growth and historically low levels of real interest rates across the globe. This new set of facts requires us to rethink what we once knew, reassess how to best foster strong and stable economies, and ready ourselves for the future.

人口趋势的变化和生产率的下降使全球增长趋势放缓，并将实际利率推至历史低位。在这些全新的现实面前，我们不得不重新审视自认为已知的事实，再度思考提振经济的最佳方案，从而为将来做好准备。

With that start, it’s time I remind everyone that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee or others in the Federal Reserve System.

我今天表达的是我个人的观点，不代表联邦公开市场委员会或其他美联储同僚的观点。