House Prices Are Up: Should We Be Happy?

房价上涨:我们应该高兴吗?

2019/05/23 16:42
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国际货币基金组织博客 - 对经济和金融的见解和分析

House prices around the world have recovered smartly since the 2008 global financial crisis. Depending on where you live, that may or may not be a good thing.

自2008年全球金融危机以来,全球房价已经明显回升。取决于您居住的地方,这可能是、也可能不是好事。

IMF research shows that there is a tight link between movements in house prices, on the one hand, and economic and financial stability, on the other.

国际货币基金组织的研究表明,房价的变动与经济金融稳定之间存在紧密联系。

In fact, more than half of the banking crises in recent decades were preceded by boom-bust cycles in house prices. So it’s no wonder that central bankers in Australia, Canada, Europe, and elsewhere have expressed concern about the potential for large declines.

事实上,近几十年来超过一半的银行危机之前是房价的繁荣 - 萧条周期。因此,难怪澳大利亚,加拿大,欧洲和其他地方的央行行长对大幅下跌的可能性表示担忧。

The Chart of the Week shows average annual price changes in 32 advanced and emerging market economies and their major cities from 2013 through the second quarter of 2018. Dublin tops the gains among major cities in advanced economies, at 10 percent. Among cities in emerging market economies, Shanghai takes the prize, with an annual increase of almost 9 percent.

本周图表显示了2013年至2018年第二季度32个发达市场和新兴市场经济体及其主要城市的年均房价变化。发达经济体主要城市中,都柏林房价涨幅高达10%;在新兴市场经济体的城市中,上海年增长率接近9%。

In recent years, house prices in major cities have moved in tandem, raising concern about the potential for large, coordinated declines. The increased synchronization of house prices is the subject of Chapter Three of the April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report.

近年来,主要城市的房价同步上涨,引发人们对大幅同步下跌的可能性的担忧。房价同步增加是2018年4月全球金融稳定报告第三章的主题。

Fortunately, IMF economists have developed a new tool to help policymakers predict the odds, or the magnitude, of a large decline in house prices. Their study, which is described in detail in Chapter Two of the April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report, identifies five factors that are associated with greater risk of a housing bust. These include rapid economic growth (in advanced economies), overvaluation of home prices, credit booms, and tighter financial conditions, which may include higher interest rates.

幸运的是,国际货币基金组织的经济学家已经开发出一种新工具来帮助政策制定者预测房价大幅下跌的可能性或幅度。他们的研究在2019年4月全球金融稳定报告的第二章中详细描述,确定了五个与房地产泡沫破灭风险相关的因素。其中包括经济快速增长(发达经济体),房价过高,信贷繁荣以及更严峻的金融条件,其中可能包括更高的利率。

What steps can policymakers take to limit the downside risks to house prices and their consequences for the real economy? So-called macroprudential measures seem to be effective. Examples include regulations that limit the amount of a home loan relative to the property price, or the size of the monthly mortgage payment relative to income. With the right policies, it will be possible to improve the resilience of the housing market.

政策制定者可以采取哪些措施来限制房价的下行风险及其对实体经济的影响?宏观审慎措施似乎是有效的,包括贷款价格比的限制规定,或每月还贷额相对于收入的上限。有了正确的政策,就有可能提高住房市场的适应力。

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