The flattening of the Phillips curve: Rounding up the suspects

菲利普斯曲线平坦化的原因

2019/05/17 05:11
收藏
对照中文英文原文
本文提供了一个框架,以考虑新西兰通货膨胀与活动之间相关性减弱的潜在原因。

Non-technical summary

非技术性摘要

The Phillips curve embodies the relationship between measures of inflation and economic activity. This correlation has declined over time in New Zealand and other developed economies, a phenomenon commonly known as the flattening of the Phillips curve.

菲利普斯曲线体现了通货膨胀和经济活动之间的关系。新西兰和其他发达经济体的这种相关性随着时间的推移而下降,这种现象通常被称为菲利普斯曲线的扁平化。

This paper provides a framework to think about the potential causes of the waning correlation between inflation and activity in New Zealand. Does this declining correlation imply that prices have become less volatile due to price-setting by firms becoming less sensitive to demand pressures? Has demand become less volatile due to households becoming less responsive to the interest rate? Have the random disturbances influencing aggregate supply and demand changed?

本文提供了一个框架,以考虑新西兰通货膨胀与活动之间相关性减弱的潜在原因。这种下降的相关性是否意味着由于公司对需求压力变得不那么敏感,价格变得不那么波动?由于家庭对利率的反应较弱,需求变得不那么波动吗?影响总供给和需求的随机干扰是否发生了变化?

We first run computational experiments in a simple model of demand and supply to demonstrate how the declining correlations observed in the data can be generated by two causal mechanisms: changes in the behaviour of economic actors or changes in the composition of random business cycle disturbances hitting the economy. The key message of the experiment is that if disturbances influencing the supply side of the economy are more potent than those affecting the demand side, the correlation between inflation and activity can diminish.

我们首先在一个简单的需求和供给模型中进行计算实验,以证明在数据中观察到的下降相关性如何通过两种因果机制产生:经济行为者的行为变化或随机商业周期扰动的组成变化达到经济。该实验的关键信息是,如果影响经济供给方的干扰比影响需求方的干扰更有效,则通货膨胀与活动之间的相关性可能会减弱。

In the next step, we estimate an extended version of the model on New Zealand data to point out potential reasons for the flattening of the Phillips curve over the inflation targeting era. Our methodology does not isolate any particular feature as a single dominant driver of the diminishing correlations observed in the data. Instead, we identify a number of potential mechanisms that contribute to the flattening of the Phillips curve. Our results suggest that changes in the structure of the economy have been fairly mild. However, business cycle disturbances on the supply side have been become much more variable than those influencing the demand side. These supply-side disturbances are very influential in driving the waning correlation between inflation and activity.

在下一步中,我们估计新西兰数据模型的扩展版本,以指出菲利普斯曲线在通胀目标时代趋于平缓的潜在原因。我们的方法不会将任何特定特征隔离为数据中观察到的递减相关性的单一主导驱动因素。相反,我们确定了许多有助于菲利普斯曲线变平的潜在机制。我们的研究结果表明,经济结构的变化相当温和。然而,供应方面的商业周期扰动变得比影响需求方面的变化多得多。这些供应方面的干扰对推动通货膨胀与活动之间的相关性变得非常有影响。

为提升阅读体验,智堡对本页面进行了排版优化 查看原文