The first major stocktaking of IMF programs since the Global Financial Crisis

IMF自全球金融危机以来首次对贷款计划进行重大评估

2019/06/03 13:01
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对照中文英文原文
国际货币基金组织对2011年9月至2017年12月期间实施的133个由IMF支持的贷款项目的设计和条件进行了深入研究。

Programs as shock absorbers

贷款计划作为减震器

Countries often come to the IMF when they already face major threats to economic or financial stability. Hence, IMF programs serve as “shock absorbers,” enabling countries to meet immediate financial needs and significantly cushion economic distress. IMF programs also catalyze additional financing from the markets, other official lenders, and donors. This helps protect the countries’ economies from even greater disruption.

当一些国家已经面临经济或金融稳定的重大威胁时,往往会求助于IMF。因此,IMF的贷款计划起到了“减震器”的作用,使各国能够满足眼前的金融需求,并显著缓解经济困境。IMF的贷款计划还促使市场、其他官方贷款机构和捐助方提供更多资金。这有助于保护这些国家的经济免受更大破坏。

The review found three-quarters of IMF programs were successful or partially successful in achieving their objectives, such as resolving balance of payment problems and fostering economic growth. Social spending was generally protected as a share of GDP. Over a third of IMF programs, mostly in low-income countries, targeted fiscal expansion to support growth and poverty reduction.

报告发现,IMF有四分之三的计划成功或部分成功地实现了它们的目标,比如解决国际收支问题和促进经济增长。社会支出占GDP的比重普遍受到保护。国际货币基金组织超过三分之一的项目,其中主要是在低收入国家,目标是通过财政扩张来支持增长和减少贫困。

In line with its commitment to be a learning institution, the Fund will draw on the lessons from the review to amend program design in the future.

为履行成为学习型机构的承诺,IMF日后会吸取经验教训,修订计划设计。

Lessons learned and way forward

吸取教训,并继续前进

The review also identified several factors that potentially inhibited programs from fully reaching their objectives. Overoptimistic economic forecasts reduced a program’s chances of success; accordingly, the review recommends using a more conservative approach to economic forecasts and providing deeper analyses of the impact that policies under the program could have on economic growth. More extensive contingency planning should also be included when designing programs.

本审查还确定了几个可能阻碍项目全面实现目标的因素。过于乐观的经济预测降低了一个项目成功的机会;因此,建议对经济预测采用更为保守的方法,并对该计划下的政策可能对经济增长产生的影响进行更深入的分析。在设计方案时还应包括更广泛的应急计划。

Public debt is a case in point. Debt sustainability improved in most cases where debt vulnerabilities started out high. In some programs, however, debt exceeded the Fund’s initial projection by considerable margins. Fund policies are already in place to deal with unsustainable debt in Fund-supported programs. While any debt restructuring needs to be considered on a case-by-case basis, more careful diagnosis is essential—this means sharper tools for the IMF’s debt sustainability analysis are needed to reduce any bias in judgement when assessing debt.

公共债务就是一个很好的例子。在债务脆弱性一开始很高的大多数情况下,债务可持续性有所改善。然而,在一些项目中,债务远远超出了IMF最初的预期。IMF的政策已经到位,以应对支持项目中不可持续的债务。尽管任何债务重组都需要在个案基础上加以考虑,但更仔细的诊断是至关重要的——这意味着IMF债务可持续性分析需要更敏锐的工具,以减少在评估债务时的判断偏差。

The review finds many programs applied fiscal adjustments that were less growth-friendly than initially envisaged. Fiscal adjustment tended to be achieved by cutting public investment, possibly curtailing future growth, rather than by lowering current spending or raising revenue. To be a more useful guide for the government’s fiscal policy, an IMF program could set more granular targets, like a floor for critical public investments.

报告发现,许多项目实施的财政调整措施对经济增长的影响不如最初设想的那么好。财政调整往往是通过削减公共投资来实现的,这可能会抑制未来的增长,而不是通过降低当前支出或增加收入来实现的。为了对政府的财政政策提供更有用的指导,IMF的计划可以设定更具体的目标,比如为关键的公共投资设定一个底线。

Tackling structural challenges to bolster growth prospects

应对结构性挑战,提振增长前景

Fund-supported programs could also do more to tackle deep-rooted structural challenges to improve a country’s long-term growth prospects. Comparing structural conditionality attached to programs with the recommendations found in preceding IMF surveillance reports, we found that programs generally kept closer to reforms that fell within the Fund’s traditional areas of expertise. We also found that conditionality in fragile and small states should be better tailored to these countries’ specific challenges.

IMF的支持计划还可以做更多的工作,以解决根深蒂固的结构性挑战,改善一个国家的长期增长前景。将项目附带的结构性条件与IMF之前的监测报告中的建议进行比较,我们发现,这些计划通常更接近IMF传统专业领域内的改革。我们还发现,脆弱国家和小国的条件应更好地适应这些国家的具体挑战。

Where critical for achieving program goals, conditionality may also need to go beyond traditional domains, such as fiscal and monetary policy, suggesting that the Fund will need to build more expertise, for example, in labor and product market reforms. We will also continue to collaborate with partner institutions in areas where we do not have expertise. As reforms in some of these areas could take longer to implement and yield results, the Fund could consider extending the program duration of arrangements under the Extended Fund Facility in exceptional cases to five years, alongside appropriate safeguards.

在实现计划目标至关重要的领域,条件约束可能还需要超越财政和货币政策等传统领域,这意味着IMF将需要在劳动力和产品市场改革等方面建立更多的专业技能。我们还将继续在我们没有专长的领域与合作机构合作。由于其中一些领域的改革可能需要更长的时间来实施和产生成果,IMF可以考虑在特殊情况下将中期贷款便利的期限延长到五年,同时采取适当的保障措施。

The importance of ownership

所有权的重要性

IMF-supported programs tended to be most successful when country authorities had strong ownership of the specified course of action. To foster this commitment, the IMF needs to put itself into the shoes of country authorities more often. A better understanding of domestic institutional and political capacities can avoid aiming at unrealistic targets. Also, tying programs in with national reform plans will make it easier for country authorities—and their citizens—to stay the course.

IMF支持的计划往往在国家当局对具体行动方针有很强的自主权时最为成功。为了实现这一承诺,IMF需要更多地站在国家当局的立场上思考。更好地了解国内的体制和政治能力可以避免以不切实际的目标为目标。此外,将计划与国家改革计划结合起来,将使国家当局及其公民更容易坚持到底。

Effective communication with the public is often an underappreciated aspect of successful program implementation. The review recommends greater public information and engagement. If a program goes off-track, the Fund should strive to remain involved—for instance, by encouraging countries to use Staff-Monitored Programs that will help maintain the country’s track record in collaborating with the Fund.

与公众的有效沟通往往是计划成功实施的一个未被充分认识的方面。该审查建议增加公共信息和参与。如果一个计划偏离了轨道,IMF应该努力保持参与——例如,鼓励各国使用由工作人员监督的计划,这将有助于保持该国与IMF合作的记录。

In line with its commitment to be a learning institution, the Fund will draw on the lessons of the review to improve program design in the future. Moreover, the Fund will continue to conduct regular reviews of its conditionality.

为履行其成为学习型机构的承诺,IMF将吸取检讨的经验教训,在未来改善计划设计。此外,IMF将继续定期审查其条件。

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