Some Scary Graphs: Manufacturing

一些可怕的图表:制造业

2019/05/21 07:46
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对照中文英文原文
如本文所述,一些NBER BCDC关键指标达到顶峰。制造业的波动也越来越大。

Some NBER BCDC key indicators have peaked, as noted in this post. The more volatile manufacturing sector is showing stress as well.

如本文所述,一些NBER BCDC关键指标达到顶峰。制造业的波动也越来越大。

Figure 1: Employment in manufacturing (blue), aggregate hours of nonsupervisory and production workers in manufacturing (teal), and manufacturing production (red), all in logs, 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve via FRED, and author’s calculations.

图1:制造业就业(蓝色),非制造业(制造业)和制造业生产(红色)的非监督和生产工人的总小时数,全部在日志中,2019M01 = 0。资料来源:BLS,美联储通过FRED,以及作者的计算。

Durable manufacturing has witnessed an even more precipitous decline.

耐用制造业的下滑幅度更大。

Figure 2: Employment in durable goods production (blue), aggregate hours of nonsupervisory and production workers in durable goods production (teal), and durable manufacturing production (red), all in logs, 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve via FRED, and author’s calculations.

图2:耐用品生产中的就业(蓝色),耐用品生产(青色)中非监督和生产工人的总小时数,以及耐用制造业生产(红色),所有日志,2019M01 = 0。资料来源:BLS,美联储通过FRED,以及作者的计算。

Returning to overall manufacturing, it seems that sector data compiled by BLS confirms the downturn (value added by industry data is still rising as of 2018Q4).

回到整体制造业,BLS编制的行业数据似乎证实了经济衰退(行业数据的增加值仍然在2018年第四季度上升)。

Figure 3: Real output in manufacturing (blue) and real value added (red), in logs 2018Q4=0. Source: BLS productivity and costs release, and BEA GDP by industry release, and author’s calculations.

图3:制造中的实际输出(蓝色)和实际增值(红色),日志2018Q4 = 0。资料来源:BLS生产力和成本发布,以及行业发布的BEA GDP和作者的计算。

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