Review of the Reserve Bank's loan-to-value ratio policy

新西兰的房贷比率

2019/05/23 16:23
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贷款与价值比率(LVR)用于衡量银行向借款人提供的贷款额,相对于借款人抵押贷款的财产价值间的关系。

A loan-to-value ratio (LVR) is a measure of how much a bank lends to a borrower, relative to the value of the borrower’s property secured against the lending. The more the banking system as a whole lends to high-LVR borrowers the greater the risk that the banking system will suffer large losses in a severe downturn. If banks do suffer large losses they may become unwilling to continue lending to the wider economy. Experience in other countries suggests this can have a damaging and lasting effect on the economy.

贷款与价值比率(LVR)用于衡量银行向借款人提供的贷款额,相对于借款人抵押贷款的财产价值间的关系。整个银行系统向高LVR借款人提供的贷款越多,银行系统在严重衰退中遭受巨额损失的风险就越大。如果银行遭受巨额亏损,他们可能会不愿意继续向更广泛的经济贷款。其他国家的经验表明,这可能对经济造成破坏性和持久影响。

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) introduced LVR restrictions in October 2013 in response to financial stability risks associated with a potential house price correction and high-LVR mortgage lending, and has adjusted policy settings in response to changing risks. The LVR policy is aimed at constraining excessive house price inflation and household credit growth to lean against the risks of a severe correction. In doing so, it can support both financial system stability and sustainable economic growth.

新西兰联储(RBNZ)于2013年10月引入了LVR限制,以应对与潜在房价调整和高LVR抵押贷款相关的金融稳定风险,并调整政策设置以应对不断变化的风险。 LVR政策旨在限制过度的房价通胀和家庭信贷增长,以抵御严重调整的风险。这样做可以支持金融体系稳定和可持续经济增长。

The Reserve Bank had considered, but decided against, capital macroprudential tools instead of the LVRs, although baseline capital rules for high-LVR loans were tightened. The LVR restrictions tend to have a greater impact in directly reducing housing and household sector risks, and in mitigating the scale of an economic downturn, than capital-based macroprudential tools that are focused on building additional bank capital buffers for absorbing shocks. This review traces changes in the LVR policy over the past five years, analyses the effect they have had on banks and households, and asks what the Reserve Bank can learn from this experience.

虽然收紧了高LVR贷款的基本资本规则,但新西兰联储最终还是决定反对资本宏观审慎工具而非LVR。与基于资本的宏观审慎工具相比,LVR限制往往对直接降低住房和家庭部门风险以及减轻经济衰退的规模产生更大影响,这些工具专注于建立额外的银行资本缓冲以吸收冲击。本次审查追踪了过去五年LVR政策的变化,分析了它们对银行和家庭的影响,以及可以从中吸取的经验。

The review suggests that the LVR policy has been effective in improving financial stability. By mitigating the scale of house price falls during a potential downturn, and limiting the indebtedness of households, the policy has made the financial system more resilient to a housing-led downturn. Declining risk weights for housing loans have offset some of the resilience benefit of LVRs, although the Reserve Bank has adjusted baseline housing capital calibrations to stabilise risk weights and support bank resilience since 2013. The LVR policy has also mitigated the likely decline in household spending and economic activity during a stress scenario.

结果表明,LVR政策在改善金融稳定方面是有效的。通过降低潜在经济衰退期间房价下跌的规模,并限制家庭的债务,该政策使金融体系更好地适应住房导致的经济衰退。住房贷款的风险权重下降抵消了LVR的部分弹性收益,尽管自2013年以来新西兰联储已调整基准住房资本校准以稳定风险权重并提高银行抵御能力。同时,LVR政策也减轻了减缓了压力之下可能出现的家庭支出以及经济活动的下降。

All prudential tools have an efficiency cost, which must be weighed against the benefits. The LVR policy is likely to have had a larger impact in constraining mortgage borrowing capacity than alternative macroprudential tools. This suggests that the LVR policy should be deployed primarily when housing and household sector risks are high, to maximise the benefits of the policy relative to the efficiency costs, which are reduced credit access for credit-worthy borrowers and the potential for slower economic growth in the short-term. The speed limit of high-LVR loans is an important calibration tool to mitigate the efficiency cost of the policy.

所有审慎工具都具有效率成本,必须权衡利弊。与其他宏观审慎工具相比,LVR政策可能对限制抵押贷款借贷能力产生更大的影响。这表明LVR政策应主要在住房和家庭部门风险较高时进行部署,以最大限度地提高政策相对于效率成本的收益,从而减少信贷资产借款人的信贷准入,以及降低短期经济增长放缓的可能性。高LVR贷款的速度限制是一个重要的校准工具,可以降低政策的效率成本。

The review also assessed the potential tension between the LVR policy and other social objectives, and other unintended effects of the policy:

审查还评估了LVR政策与其他社会目标之间的潜在紧张关系,以及该政策的其他意外影响:

  • The initial LVR calibration disproportionately restricted purchases by first home buyers (FHBs), creating a tension with the public policy goal of housing affordability. Over time, the policy has increasingly operated by restricting property investor purchases, and rebalanced the policy burden away from FHBs.
  • 最初的LVR校准不成比例地限制了首次置业者(FHBs)的购买行为,从而形成了与住房负担能力的公共政策目标的紧张关系。随着时间的推移,该政策越来越多地通过限制房地产投资者的购买来实现,并将政策负担从FHB重新调整。
  • The Auckland regional LVR policy (applied for about a year starting in late 2015) contributed to a spillover of housing demand from Auckland to other regions, despite being effective at addressing risks in Auckland itself.
  • 奥克兰区域LVR政策(从2015年底开始申请约一年)导致奥克兰向其他地区的住房需求溢出,尽管它有效地解决了奥克兰本身的风险。
  • Although the provision of mortgages by non-banks has grown since the policy came into place, the scale of this disintermediation remains too small to significantly erode the effectiveness of the LVR restrictions. This suggests that the LVR policy will remain effective in improving bank resilience for a longer period than originally expected.
  • 尽管自政策实施以来非银行提供抵押贷款的情况有所增加,但规模仍然太小,无法显著削弱LVR限制的有效性。这表明LVR政策将在比原先预期更长的时间内提高银行抵御能力。
  • The policy could impact on competition, the construction of new housing, and rents. If these effects have been present, they have not been of a sufficient scale to be identified.
  • 该政策可能会影响竞争,建造新住房和租金。如果存在这些影响,则它们的规模尚不足以确定。

There are limits to what the LVR policy can achieve. The LVR tool is relatively ineffective at influencing aggregate demand and inflationary pressures, and therefore should not be used as a lever of monetary policy. More importantly, the pressures on the housing market and the rental market from a growing population, a limited supply of housing, and low mortgage rates require a range of responses that are outside the scope of prudential policy.

LVR政策可以实现的目标是有限的。LVR工具在影响总需求和通胀压力方面相对无效,因此不应被用作货币政策的杠杆。更重要的是,住房市场和租赁市场的压力来自不断增长的人口,有限的住房供应和低抵押贷款利率需要一系列不属于审慎政策范围的回应。

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