San Francisco Fed: ease of finding a new job is driving improved labor force participation

旧金山联邦储备银行:寻找新工作的便利性正在推动劳动力参与度的提高

2019/05/22 20:33
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这是一个值得注意的令人惊讶的结果:旧金山联邦储备银行发现黄金时代实验室的增加......

This is a surprising result that is worth noting: the San Francisco Fed found that the increase in prime age labor force participation in the past five years has not been due to new people being drawn into the labor force, but rather by a very large decrease in people leaving it:

这是一个值得注意的令人惊讶的结果:旧金山联邦储备银行发现,过去五年中黄金时代劳动力参与的增加并不是因为新人被吸引到劳动力市场,而是因为大幅度减少在离开它的人:

[Note: keep in mind that prior to the early 1990s, both inflows and outflows are increasing due to the secular trend of women entering the workforce.]

[注意:请记住,在20世纪90年代初之前,由于女性进入劳动力市场的长期趋势,流入和流出都在增加。

Why is this surprising? Because you would think that increased wages would draw people on the sidelines into the workforce. This is something I’ve looked at a few times in the past several years, and the pattern has been clear:

为什么这令人惊讶?因为你会认为提高工资会吸引人们进入劳动力市场。这是我在过去几年里几次看过的东西,模式很明确:

1. The unemployment rate declines

1.失业率下降

2. Once the unemployment rate declines enough, the decline in labor force participation decelerates, but nevertheless continues.

2.一旦失业率下降,劳动力参与率的下降就会减缓,但仍在继续。

3. Average hourly wage growth starts to improve.

3.平均小时工资增长开始改善。

4. Labor force participation starts to increase.

4.劳动力参与开始增加。

Here’s a graph showing this relationship since 1994:

这是自1994年以来这种关系的图表:

The San Francisco Fed says that the reason for the big decline in outflows has been the ease of finding a new job, although that appears to be speculation. It might be that improved wage growth is something that is noticeable to people already in the labor force, rather than those presently outside of it.

旧金山联邦储备银行表示,流出量大幅下降的原因是寻找新工作的难易程度,尽管这似乎是猜测。可能是工资增长的改善对已经在劳动力市场的人来说是显而易见的,而不是目前在劳动力之外的人。

Anyway, a counter-intuitive result worth noting.

无论如何,一个反直觉的结果值得注意。

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