The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy

财政政策的非线性效应

2019/05/24 14:34
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对照中文英文原文
政府购买的财政乘数在支出冲击中正在增加,这与大多数文献中假定的情况相反。

Abstract

摘要

We argue that the fiscal multiplier of government purchases is increasing in the spending shock, in contrast to what is assumed in most of the literature. The fiscal multiplier is largest for large positive government spending shocks and smallest for large contractions in government spending. We empirically document this fact using aggregate U.S. data. We find that a neoclassical, life-cycle, incomplete markets model calibrated to match key features of the US economy can explain this empirical finding. The mechanism hinges on the relationship between fiscal shocks, their form of financing, and the response of labor supply across the wealth distribution. The model predicts that the aggregate labor supply elasticity is increasing in the size of the fiscal shock, and this holds regardless of whether shocks are deficit- or balanced-budget financed (albeit through different mechanisms). We find evidence of our mechanism in micro data for the US.

我们认为,政府购买的财政乘数在支出冲击中正在增加,这与大多数文献中假定的情况相反。财政乘数在政府支出大幅正面冲击时最大,而在政府支出大幅收缩时最小。我们用美国的综合数据对这一事实进行了实证记录。我们发现,一个新古典主义的、生命周期的、不完整的市场模型可以解释这一实证发现。这一机制取决于财政冲击、它们的融资形式和劳动力供应对财富分配的反应之间的关系。该模型预测,总劳动力供应弹性在财政冲击的规模上正在增加,无论冲击是赤字还是平衡预算融资(尽管通过不同的机制),这种情况都是成立的。我们在美国的微观数据中找到了我们的机制的证据。

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