A comment about the economy and the 2020 election

关于经济和2020年大选的评论

2019/05/23 01:32
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最近,我看到一些民主党人采取了一系列措施,大意是“经济形势很好,因此很可能……

A comment about the economy and the 2020 election

关于经济和2020年大选的评论

- by New Deal democrat Recently I’ve seen a bunch of takes to the effect that “the economy is doing great, and therefore it is likely that Donald Trump will be re-elected.” In my opinion that fear is overblown for three important reasons.

最近,我看到了一些关于“经济形势很好,因此唐纳德·特朗普很可能会再次当选”的言论。“在我看来,特朗普当选的可能性被夸大有三个重要原因。

The fist, least noteworthy reason, is that there is still a lot of time between now and the election. As I noted Monday, many - but not all - models of the economy indicate that a recession is likely between now and then, for reasons having nothing to do with the age of the expansion. Needless to say, a recession in 2020 would not bode well for either Trump or the GOP.

首先,最不值得注意的原因是,从现在到大选还有很长一段时间。正如我在周一所指出的,许多(但不是所有)经济模型都表明,由于与经济扩张的年龄无关的原因,从现在到那时可能会出现衰退。不用说,2020年的经济衰退对特朗普和共和党都不是好兆头。

Secondly, consider what economic interventions Trump and the GOP have made since they inherited the economy from Obama. There have been three:

其次,考虑一下自特朗普和共和党从奥巴马手中接过经济大权以来,他们采取了哪些经济干预措施。有三个:

1. They passed a tax cut that lopsidedly favored the wealthy and corporations, that has generated zero acclaim from the middle and working classes - and with the decrease in tax refunds, may have generated net negative feelings.

1. 他们通过了一项偏袒富人和企业的减税法案,却没有得到中产阶级和工人阶级的任何好评,而且随着退税的减少,可能已经产生了负面的影响。

2. Trump has started several trade wars that are proving unpopular, partly because they mainly have hurt portions of his own base, partly because they are  resulting in net higher prices to consumers that may be getting noticed, and partly because negatively affected businesses may start laying off workers.

2. 事实证明,特朗普发动了几场不受欢迎的贸易战,部分原因是贸易战损害了他自己的部分选民基础,部分原因是贸易战导致消费者可能会注意到的净价格上涨,部分原因是受负面影响的企业可能会开始裁员。

3. Trump is held responsible for the government shutdown that resulted in a mini-recession.

3.特朗普被认为对导致小型经济衰退的政府关闭负有责任。

In short, it’s not clear to say the least that the public at large would give Trump credit for an economy that he mainly inherited from Obama and as to which his known interventions have been received negatively.

简而言之,目前还不清楚公众是否会因为特朗普主要从奥巴马那里继承来的经济、以及他已知的干预措施受到的负面影响而给予特朗普好评。

Finally, and most notably, the example of the Bush vs. Gore 2000 election strongly cuts against Trump. As I wrote in 2016, all of the fundamentals-based election models, such as the “bread and peace” model, or models based on the unemployment rate or on consumer income and spending, indicated that Gore should have won by nearly a landslide, on the order of 55%-45%, as shown in the graph below:

最后,也是最值得注意的是,2000年布什对戈尔(Bush vs. Gore)的选举结果强烈反对特朗普。我2016年写的,所有的fundamentals-based选举模型,如“面包与和平”模型,模型基于失业率或消费者收入和支出,戈尔表示,应该由近一个滑坡,在55% - -45%,如下图所示:

Instead, Gore won the popular vote by only 0.5%, despite being able to run on both peace and prosperity - the biggest outlier of the entire series going back to 1952.

相反,戈尔只以0.5%的优势赢得了普选,尽管他既能赢得和平又能赢得繁荣——这是1952年以来这一系列选举中最大的例外。

Two big factors held Gore back: first, the economic expansion had gone on for nearly 10 years, and at some point the public takes it for granted, or in other words, “so what have you done for me lately?” Second, as his Vice President, Gore was stained by Bill Clinton’s slimy personal life.

有两大因素阻碍了戈尔:第一,经济扩张已经持续了近10年,在某种程度上,公众认为这是理所当然的,或者换句话说,“那么你最近为我做了什么?”其次,作为副总统,戈尔被比尔·克林顿肮脏的私生活玷污了。

Both of the factors that worked against Gore in 2000 are likely to work against Trump in 2020: if the economy remains in expansion, the public will probably take it for granted; and Trump’s pervasive sliminess, both public and private, will work against him. In short, Trump is likely to underperform compared with the fundamentals even more than did Gore.

2000年对戈尔不利的两个因素很可能在2020年对特朗普不利:如果经济继续扩张,公众可能会认为这是理所当然的;而特朗普在公共和私人领域的普遍滑头,将对他不利。简而言之,与基本面相比,特朗普的表现可能比戈尔还要差。

While the example of 2016 certainly means that the 2020 election is another “all hands on deck” moment for Democrats, and nothing should be taken for granted, even if the economy remains in expansion as it is now I do not think that means Trump wins the election.

2016年的例子当然意味着2020年的选举对民主党来说是另一个“全员参与”的时刻,没有什么是理所当然的,即使经济仍像现在这样处于扩张之中,我不认为这意味着特朗普赢得了选举。

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