Why the future is Asian?

为什么世界的未来在亚洲?

2019/05/26 17:38
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对照中文英文原文
全球战略顾问Parag Khanna描述了未来世界经济如何越来越以亚洲为中心,并将朝着这个方向更加迅速地发展。

More than half of the world’s population lives in Asia, where economies are growing quickly and becoming increasingly interconnected in culture, business, and trade. In this first piece of a two-part interview, Parag Khanna, the managing partner of FutureMap, explains what’s underscoring this transformation, as laid out in his latest book, The Future Is Asian: Commerce, Conflict, and Culture in the 21st Century (Simon & Schuster, February 2019). The following is an edited transcript of Khanna’s conversation with McKinsey’s Rik Kirkland.

世界上一半以上的人口居住在亚洲,那里的经济增长迅速,在文化,商业和贸易方面日益相互联系。在访谈中,FutureMap的执行合伙人Parag Khanna解释了他在最新著作《未来就是亚洲:21世纪的 商业,冲突和文化 》中所强调的那样的转变。 Simon&Schuster,2019年2月)。以下是Khanna与麦肯锡Rik Kirkland对话的编辑记录。

Asia’s future: More than a China story

亚洲的未来:不仅仅是中国

The future is Asian because demographically the world is already Asian. More than 50 percent of the world population lives in Asia. As the world population plateaus—somewhere around, but perhaps less than, 10 billion people—we will never live in a world where the majority of the world population is not Asians in Asia. We need to get used to that fact.

未来在亚洲,因为在人口统计学上,世界已经是有超过50%的世界人口居住在亚洲。随着全球人口增长步入平台期,我们将不会生活在世界上大多数人口不是亚洲人的世界。我们需要习惯这个事实。

Then there’s the economy. Especially if you measure in PPP [purchasing-power parity] terms, but even if you don’t, you have 35 to 40 percent of the global economy centered on the Asian realm.

特别是如果你用PPP [购买力平价]来衡量,但即使你没有,你也有35%到40%的全球经济以亚洲为中心。

Third, Asia is “Asianizing.” These major Asian economic powers, and also the major markets to which Western companies want to export and do business in, are already trading more with each other than they are with the rest of the world. If you want to be a successful global company, you cannot make the statement “I am a successful global company” unless you are a big deal in Asia. It’s the present that’s already Asian, based on that data. And that’s ever more the case the further you look into the future.

第三,亚洲正在“亚洲化”。这些主要的亚洲经济大国,以及西方公司希望出口和经营的主要市场,彼此之间的交易比与世界其他地方相比更多。除非你在亚洲有大笔业务,否则你不能声称“我是一家成功的全球公司”。根据这些数据,现在世界已经是亚洲的了。更进一步展望未来的情况更是如此。

What’s driving the next phase of Asian growth?

是什么推动了亚洲增长的下一阶段?

For 500 years prior to 1990, Asia was more or less divided—or getting divided—by colonial powers and by the Cold War. No one alive today can remember the last Silk Road era of the 14th and 15th centuries. And yet, that is what is being re-created now. It was only possible because of the end of colonialism and the end of the Cold War that we’ve witnessed these past three decades. While we’ve been paying attention to a lot of other things, whether it’s the war on terror or whatever the case may be, the fact is that Asia has been very steadily, very diligently integrating.

在1990年之前的500年里,亚洲或多或少地受到殖民国家和冷战的分裂或分裂。今天没有人能够记住14和15世纪最后的丝绸之路时代。然而,这些现在正在重现。亚洲一直非常稳定、勤奋地融合进全球。

The first milestone in that was the energy supercycle: high commodities prices. West Asian—meaning the Middle East, Persian Gulf—oil and gas exports flowing across the Indian Ocean to the Far East. Now West Asia trades much more with East Asia than it does with any of its former colonial masters. Then you had Asian economies going through and surviving the financial crisis due to their economic integration. 

其中的第一个里程碑是能源超级周期:高商品价格。西亚(即中东,波斯湾)的石油和天然气出口流经印度洋到远东。现在,西亚与东亚的交易远远超过其任何前殖民者。然后,由于经济一体化,亚洲经济体幸免于金融危机。

The Belt and Road Initiative is just the beginning of that whole next phase of Asia’s integration through infrastructure, the 20 trade agreements that are being negotiated between Asian countries, rising volumes of foreign investment, local currency debt, growing cross-border liquidity, trade finance. All of these things are helping Asians rediscover and exploit the very natural complementarities that they have.

“一带一路”倡议是亚洲通过基础设施整合下一阶段的开端,亚洲国家正在就20项贸易协定进行谈判,外国投资额增加,本币债务、跨境流动性增加,还有贸易融资等等。所有这些都有助于亚洲重新发现并利用他们所拥有的非常自然的互补性。

Asian optimism versus Western pessimism

亚洲乐观主义与西方悲观主义

We live in a globalized world, and yet we have a great intellectual divergence under way between the slow-growing, inward-looking, xenophobic, pessimistic, anti-trade and -globalization West and the optimistic, forward-looking, “the world’s getting better”-believing, “bring borders down”-thinking, pro-globalization Asia. That’s a caricature, but it’s not that far off.

我们生活在一个全球化的世界中,然而我们在缓慢增长、内向、仇外、悲观主义、反贸易和反全球化的西方以及乐观、前瞻性的“世界变得越来越好”、“推倒边境障碍”的顺全球化的亚洲之间存在巨大的智识分歧。

You have pro-globalization and pro-trade support across the vast spectrum of societies in Asia. You have a lot of support for leadership. Executive branches, executive authorities, and leaders enjoy a very high degree of public trust. 

亚洲社会中广泛支持全球化和贸易。领导者有很多支持。行政部门,行政机关和领导者享有很高的公信力。

Asian countries are in that sweet spot now, where the forces are aligning across not only the interest of global capital markets and geopolitical stability but also the demographic wave, the infrastructure investment, and the quality of leadership. All of those things are coming together quite nicely in Asia right now.

亚洲国家现在处于这个甜蜜时刻,不仅是全球资本市场和地缘政治稳定的利益,还有人口浪潮,基础设施投资和领导质量,这些力量都很好地在亚洲汇聚在一起。

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