Disentangling Global Value Chains

解密全球价值链

2019/06/04 15:12
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The patterns of production underlying the recent rise of global value chains (GVCs) have become increasingly complex. NAFTA supply chains, for example, are now deeply integrated: Using Mexican customs data, I find that exports to the U.S. use a much higher share of American inputs than exports to other countries. However, the conventional framework used to measure GVCs ignores this heterogeneity since it assumes that all output uses the same input mix. I develop a new framework that combines input-output data with additional information on supply chain linkages in order to construct GVCs reflecting the use of inputs observed in the latter. Improving measurement matters quantitatively since it affects both value-added trade measures and counterfactual experiments: I show that incorporating Mexican customs data raises the estimated share of U.S. value in U.S. imported Mexican manufactures from 18% to 30% and amplifies the welfare cost of a NAFTA trade war.

全球价值链(GVCs)崛起下的生产模式变得越来越复杂。例如,NAFTA供应链现已深度整合:使用墨西哥海关数据,本文发现,对美国的出口使用的美国投入比对其他国家的出口要多得多。然而,用于测量GVC的传统框架忽略了这种异质性,因为它假设所有产出使用相同的投入组合。本文开发了一个新的框架,将投入产出数据与供应链联系的其他信息相结合,以构建反映后者观察到的投入使用的全球价值链。本文发现,纳入墨西哥海关数据可将美国进口的墨西哥制造业中的美国价值估计比例从18%提高到30%,从而放大北美自由贸易协定争议的福利成本。

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