Stretched Valuations Warrant Caution in Equity Investing

估值过高,应谨慎投资股票

2019/06/06 16:48
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帕金斯投资管理公司(Perkins Investment Management)的投资组合经理Kevin Preloger认为,美国股市估值过高,市场很容易受到一系列尚未解决的地缘政治和贸易问题的影响。在此背景下,对股市持乐观但谨慎的态度。

Key Takeaways

关键点

  • With valuations stretched and earnings growth past its peak, we believe U.S. equities are priced for perfection.
  • 由于估值过高,且盈利增长已超过峰值,我们认为美国股市的定价将趋于完全。
  • Geopolitical and trade issues may need to be resolved before the market can continue higher.
  • 地缘政治和贸易问题可能需要在市场继续走高之前得到解决。
  • Against this backdrop, we maintain a positive yet cautious outlook for equities.
  • 在此背景下,我们对股市持乐观但谨慎的态度。

Kevin Preloger: We think that valuations are very stretched at this point because we think that earnings growth probably peaked late last year, and now you’re seeing earnings expectations being ratcheted down. And so the rally we’ve seen year to date has been all multiple expansion. So we were cautious last year. We’re even more cautious this year, given the run that markets had, and it seems to be priced for perfection.

Kevin Preloger:我们认为目前的估值过高,因为盈利增长可能在去年年底见顶,现在你看到盈利预期正在下降。因此,我们今年迄今看到的反弹都是乘数扩张。所以去年我们很谨慎。考虑到市场的表现,我们今年甚至更加谨慎。

Valuations is the key concern, and I think the risk to the market at this point is: Does the Fed reverse course? Do they start to raise interest rates because inflation spiked? If you look at commodity prices, for example, oil prices have gone up and the price of the dollar, if oil goes up, the dollar goes up, you’re somewhat exporting inflation to other countries, so does that lead to economic weakness elsewhere? And I think there’s a whole host of geopolitical events that could occur at any time that the market might not be prepared for. In addition, nothing’s been settled with China. It seems to be an extend-and-pretend situation. So, tread those headlines at your own risk, but I think we also feel that for values, we would really focus on value equities. And we think that the small- and mid-cap space provide decent opportunities, as they’re much more attractively priced than, say, small- and mid-cap growth equities.

估值是关键问题,我认为目前市场面临的风险是:美联储会逆转政策方向吗?他们开始加息是因为通胀飙升吗?如果你看看商品价格,例如,石油价格上涨,美元价格上涨,如果石油价格上涨,美元就会上涨,这就相当于向其他国家输出通货膨胀,这是否会导致其他国家的经济疲软?我认为,在任何时候都可能发生一系列地缘政治事件,而市场可能没有做好准备。我认为,就价值而言,我们将真正关注价值股。中小型价值股提供了不错的机会,因为它们的定价比中小型成长型股票等更具吸引力。

For instance, in the first quarter, for small- and mid-cap growth stocks, they outperformed small- and mid-cap value stocks by over 500 basis points. So if it’s a function of value equities finally catch up or value equities go down less because growth equities went down a lot more – we’re not sure which scenario occurs, but we feel that [with] value, you’ve got some downside protection on valuation but also, if the market continues its march higher, then I think people still participate but to a lesser extent.

例如,今年第一季度,中小型成长型股票的表现比中小型价值型股票高出逾500个基点。如果价值股最后赶上,或者价值股下跌更少,因为增长股票下降很多? 我们不能确定哪种情形会发生,但是价值股会提供部分下行保护,而且如果市场继续走高,人们的参与但程度会不一样。

I think one of the keys areas of concern is probably just disruption and the likes of Amazon and other interrupters of the traditional ways of doing business. So I think what we need to focus in on is the competitive advantage in companies that are durable, that can withstand that sort of threat.

我认为最令人担忧的一个关键领域可能就是颠覆,比如亚马逊和其他传统商业模式的破坏者。所以我认为,我们需要关注的是,那些能够经受住这种威胁的、可持续发展的公司的竞争优势。

We feel the valuations are priced for perfection, but the market could probably continue to grind higher because equities are still the better place to be versus fixed income and some other asset opportunities. So we like the outlook for equities. Although they’re not at the Fantasyland-type valuations that you saw in 2000, but they are rich. So the companies need to deliver on earnings, and we need, I think, a relatively quiet geopolitical environment and perhaps some of the trade issues to be resolved before the market can continue higher.

我们认为这些估值已经完全定价,但市场可能会继续走高,因为相对于固定收益和其他一些资产机会,股票仍是更好的投资选择。因此,我们看好股市的前景。虽然它们的估值没有达到2000年那种梦幻般的水平,但它们估值仍然很高。因此,这些公司需要实现盈利,我认为,我们需要一个相对平静的地缘政治环境,或许还需要一些贸易问题在市场继续走高之前得到解决。

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