Stretched Valuations Warrant Caution in Equity Investing


2019/06/06 16:48
帕金斯投资管理公司(Perkins Investment Management)的投资组合经理Kevin Preloger认为,美国股市估值过高,市场很容易受到一系列尚未解决的地缘政治和贸易问题的影响。在此背景下,对股市持乐观但谨慎的态度。

Key Takeaways


  • With valuations stretched and earnings growth past its peak, we believe U.S. equities are priced for perfection.
  • 由于估值过高,且盈利增长已超过峰值,我们认为美国股市的定价将趋于完全。
  • Geopolitical and trade issues may need to be resolved before the market can continue higher.
  • 地缘政治和贸易问题可能需要在市场继续走高之前得到解决。
  • Against this backdrop, we maintain a positive yet cautious outlook for equities.
  • 在此背景下,我们对股市持乐观但谨慎的态度。

Kevin Preloger: We think that valuations are very stretched at this point because we think that earnings growth probably peaked late last year, and now you’re seeing earnings expectations being ratcheted down. And so the rally we’ve seen year to date has been all multiple expansion. So we were cautious last year. We’re even more cautious this year, given the run that markets had, and it seems to be priced for perfection.

Kevin Preloger:我们认为目前的估值过高,因为盈利增长可能在去年年底见顶,现在你看到盈利预期正在下降。因此,我们今年迄今看到的反弹都是乘数扩张。所以去年我们很谨慎。考虑到市场的表现,我们今年甚至更加谨慎。

Valuations is the key concern, and I think the risk to the market at this point is: Does the Fed reverse course? Do they start to raise interest rates because inflation spiked? If you look at commodity prices, for example, oil prices have gone up and the price of the dollar, if oil goes up, the dollar goes up, you’re somewhat exporting inflation to other countries, so does that lead to economic weakness elsewhere? And I think there’s a whole host of geopolitical events that could occur at any time that the market might not be prepared for. In addition, nothing’s been settled with China. It seems to be an extend-and-pretend situation. So, tread those headlines at your own risk, but I think we also feel that for values, we would really focus on value equities. And we think that the small- and mid-cap space provide decent opportunities, as they’re much more attractively priced than, say, small- and mid-cap growth equities.


For instance, in the first quarter, for small- and mid-cap growth stocks, they outperformed small- and mid-cap value stocks by over 500 basis points. So if it’s a function of value equities finally catch up or value equities go down less because growth equities went down a lot more – we’re not sure which scenario occurs, but we feel that [with] value, you’ve got some downside protection on valuation but also, if the market continues its march higher, then I think people still participate but to a lesser extent.

例如,今年第一季度,中小型成长型股票的表现比中小型价值型股票高出逾500个基点。如果价值股最后赶上,或者价值股下跌更少,因为增长股票下降很多? 我们不能确定哪种情形会发生,但是价值股会提供部分下行保护,而且如果市场继续走高,人们的参与但程度会不一样。

I think one of the keys areas of concern is probably just disruption and the likes of Amazon and other interrupters of the traditional ways of doing business. So I think what we need to focus in on is the competitive advantage in companies that are durable, that can withstand that sort of threat.


We feel the valuations are priced for perfection, but the market could probably continue to grind higher because equities are still the better place to be versus fixed income and some other asset opportunities. So we like the outlook for equities. Although they’re not at the Fantasyland-type valuations that you saw in 2000, but they are rich. So the companies need to deliver on earnings, and we need, I think, a relatively quiet geopolitical environment and perhaps some of the trade issues to be resolved before the market can continue higher.


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