Structural change in emerging markets: 4 key forces to understand

新兴市场的结构性变化:4个关键因素

2019/06/13 16:20
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对照中文英文原文
新兴市场的结构性变化如何转化为投资主体?关注长期经济发展,而不是短期。

Key points

要点

We believe:

我们相信:

  • Economic development is generating four forces of structural change across emerging markets (EMs): greater inclusiveness, enhanced productivity, improved living standards and better sustainability.
  • 经济发展正在新兴市场产生四股结构性变革力量:包容性增强、生产率提高、生活水平提高和可持续性增强。
  • Countries that make progress towards economic development offer more fertile environments for investing.
  • 在经济发展方面取得进展的国家为投资提供了更肥沃的环境。
  • Traditional EM indexes are underexposed to the forces of structural change.
  • 传统的新兴市场指数受结构性变化的影响不足。
  • An unconstrained, thematic approach can offer targeted access to development opportunities.
  • 一种不受限制的主题方法可以提供有针对性的发展机会。

THE TAILWIND OF ABOVE-TREND GROWTH SHAPED THE EM INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS.This growth advantage has begun to fade; we suspect it will not return to the same extent in the near future. Instead, a change in policy priorities, together with an environment of slower but steadier growth, is creating different investment opportunities from those that characterised the last cycle. Our research agenda is focused on trying to understand this transition and its investment implications. This paper isolates four key forces of structural change across EMs, and offers a framework for translating these structural changes into potentially attractive investment themes.

过去20年,新兴市场投资环境受到高于趋势增长率的推动。这种增长优势已开始消退;我们怀疑,在不久的将来,它将不会回到同样的程度。相反,政策重点的改变,加上经济增长放缓但更为稳定的环境,正在创造不同于上一轮周期的投资机会。我们的研究议程的重点是试图理解这种转变及其投资影响。本文分离了新兴市场结构性变化的四种关键力量,并提供了一个框架,将这些结构性变化转化为具有潜在吸引力的投资主题。

Focus on development rather than growt

关注发展而不是增长

Policy objectives across EMs have been evolving away from a narrow focus on growth, towards broader measures of economic prosperity. “Growth at all costs” without due regard for its impact or stability is no longer an accepted approach to economic planning. This evolution should challenge how investors think about EMs. Specifically, we believe that “economic development” is replacing “economic growth” as the dominant force for structural change, and that it will likely be a powerful lens to use when searching for attractive investment opportunities in the future. Economic development is a broader measure than economic growth, as it takes into account a range of variables and higher-value-added outcomes within an economy. These outcomes allow new industries and services to grow, foster cooperation between the public sector and private enterprises, and broaden societal participation in economic prosperity, all without being detrimental to future generations.

新兴市场的政策目标已从狭隘地关注增长,转向更广泛的衡量经济繁荣的指标。“不惜一切代价实现增长”而不充分考虑其影响或稳定已不再是经济规划的一种公认方法。这种演变应该会挑战投资者对新兴市场的看法。具体地说,我们认为,“经济发展”正在取代“经济增长”成为结构性变化的主导力量,这可能是未来寻找有吸引力投资机会的有力视角。经济发展是比经济增长更广泛的衡量标准,因为它考虑了一个经济体中的一系列变量和更高附加值的结果。这些成果使新的工业和服务得以发展,促进公共部门和私营企业之间的合作,并扩大社会参与经济繁荣,所有这些都不损害后代。

In the short to medium term, economic growth without significant economic development is possible. However, over the long term, we find these examples frequently revert to weak and unstable growth patterns once the benefits of increases in the factors of production are realised.

在中短期内,没有显著经济发展的经济增长是可能的。然而,从长期来看,我们发现,一旦生产要素增加的好处得到实现,这些例子往往会恢复到疲弱和不稳定的增长模式。

What matters most: sustainable economic progress

最重要的是:可持续的经济发展

Markets are often quick to respond to the ups and downs of cyclical news flow. For example, the potential impacts of oil prices on EM exporters and importers can result in short-term dislocations. On the other hand, markets are often slow to recognise structural change. We prefer to focus on these underappreciated and more enduring changes, rather than being distracted by the…

市场往往对周期性新闻流的起伏做出快速反应。例如,油价对新兴市场出口国和进口国的潜在影响可能导致短期混乱。另一方面,市场往往难以认识到结构性变化。我们更愿意关注这些被低估的和更持久的变化,而不是被……

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