剖析美国的钻井生产力

2019/06/24 12:02
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对照中文英文原文
堪萨斯联储的研究人员构建了新的钻井产能指标,发现从2005年中期到2017年初,产能增长了6倍。

We construct new measures of drilling productivity and find that productivity increased sixfold from the mid-2000s to early 2017. Gains in below-ground efficiency—the number of barrels produced per foot of drilled wells—have largely driven this increase in overall productivity. The large oil price declines during the Great Recession and from 2014 to 2016 also played a role. However, further large increases in productivity are unlikely absent additional improvements in technology or a subsequent large downturn in oil prices.

我们构建了新的钻井产能指标,发现从2005年中期到2017年初,产能增长了6倍。地下效率的提高——每英尺钻油井的产量——在很大程度上推动了整体生产力的提高。大衰退期间以及2014年至2016年期间的油价大幅下跌也起到了一定作用。然而,如果没有技术的进一步改善或随后油价的大幅下跌,生产率不太可能进一步大幅提高。

U.S. production of crude oil has steadily trended higher in recent years despite declines in crude oil prices. Chart 1 shows that the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell starting in mid-2014 and was followed promptly by a large reduction in the number of active drilling rigs. However, U.S. oil and gas production has continued to increase almost uninterrupted. In fact, in 2018, the United States became the world’s largest producer of crude oil (Energy Information Administration 2018). The steady rise in production at a time when oil prices and rigs declined suggests that productivity within the oil and gas sector has increased.

尽管原油价格下跌,但美国原油产量近年来稳步走高。图1显示,基准的西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格自2014年年中开始下跌,随后活跃钻井平台数量迅速大幅减少。然而,美国的石油和天然气产量几乎没有间断地持续增长。事实上,在2018年,美国成为世界上最大的原油生产国。在石油价格和钻井平台下降之际,石油产量稳步上升,表明油气行业的生产率有所提高。

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