转向避险环境:市场情绪会成为现实吗?

2019/06/24 16:09
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对照中文英文原文
市场更多地受到市场情绪的驱动,而不是基本面因素的驱动。

As both sides in the China-U.S. trade dispute speed toward the edge of the cliff, and new trade tensions appear (and disappear) with rapid frequency, we are seeing markets being driven more by sentiment and less by fundamentals. As active investors, we must ask ourselves, What is the reality? The U.S. economy is slowing, but not stalling. The trillion-dollar question for investors is, Will volatility and enough negative sentiment make worries become reality? Vanguard's Investment Strategy Group team doesn't see the threat of an imminent recession, and with a Federal Reserve that seems willing to keep rates low, we may get a pass. Tight financial conditions are one of the keys that could turn sentiment into reality. But we haven't yet seen a large move in financial conditions or volatility, and lower yields are offsetting the price decline in equities.

随着贸易争端正迅速走向悬崖边缘,新的紧张局势出现(或消失)的频率也非常之快,我们看到市场更多地受到市场情绪的驱动,而不是基本面因素的驱动。作为主动投资者,我们必须问自己,现实是什么?美国经济正在放缓,但并没有停滞不前。对投资者来说,数万亿美元的问题是,市场波动和足够多的负面情绪会让担忧变成现实吗?Vanguard的投资策略团队没有看到经济衰退迫在眉睫的威胁,而美联储似乎愿意将利率维持在低位,我们或许安全度过。紧张的财政状况是将市场情绪转变为现实的关键之一。但我们还没有看到金融状况或波动性出现大幅波动,而较低的收益率正在抵消股票价格的下跌。

With sentiment seemingly driving market moves, we think it's critical to:

市场情绪似乎在推动市场走势,我们认为关键在于:

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