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澳大利亚房贷拖欠情况有多严重?

2019/07/04 10:15
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对照中文英文原文
澳大利亚银行发放的住房贷款中,拖欠比例回到了2010年的水平,为多年来的峰值。

Thank you to the Property Council for asking me to speak at this Property Leaders' Summit. I want to address an important issue for the property industry – the rising rate of housing loan arrears (Graph 1). Why is it that an increasing share of housing borrowers are behind in their mortgage repayments? Mortgage arrears can be associated with significant personal trauma for borrowers. They also point to a rising risk to the financial system as housing loans are 40 per cent of banks' assets. If the value of the property backing the loan exceeds the value of the loan then arrears won't have a big impact on banks' profits or capital. But with falling housing prices the potential for banks to experience losses increases. So, on several fronts, this is an important issue.

感谢房地产理事会邀请我在这次房地产领导人峰会上发言。我想谈谈房地产行业的一个重要问题——房贷拖欠率的上升(图1)。为什么越来越多的房屋贷款人拖欠贷款?拖欠贷款可能与借款者遭受突发状况有关。他们还指出,由于住房贷款占银行资产的40%,金融体系面临的风险正在上升。如果支持贷款的房产价值超过了贷款价值,那么欠款对银行的利润或资本不会产生很大的影响。但随着房价下跌,银行遭受损失的可能性增加。因此,从多个角度看这是一个重要的问题。

Graph 1

图1

There are many reasons why borrowers fall into arrears, almost all of which involve a fall in income or rise in expenses – or both. Some borrowers experience personal misfortune, such as ill health or a relationship breakdown, which is unrelated to economic conditions or the quality of their loan. And even in good times, some people become unemployed. So there will always be some borrowers who fall into arrears.

借款人拖欠贷款的原因有很多,几乎所有原因都与收入下降或支出增加有关——或者两者都有。一些借款人遭受不幸,比如身体状况不佳或关系破裂,这与经济形势或贷款质量无关。即使在经济繁荣时期,有些人也会失业。因此,总会有一些借款人拖欠债务。

However, it is weak economic conditions that drive cyclical upswings in arrears. In particular, borrowers can struggle to make their payments if their income falls. Weak conditions in housing markets make it hard for borrowers to get out of arrears by selling their property. Conversely, large increases in interest rates, say to slow an overheating economy, can also contribute to rising arrears.

然而,正是疲弱的经济形势推动了欠款的周期性上升。特别是,如果借款人的收入下降,他们可能难以偿还贷款。住房市场的疲软状况使得借款者很难通过出售房产来还清欠款。相反,比如大幅提高利率为过热的经济降温,也可能导致欠款增加。

Banks' lending standards also play a role in arrears. And it is important to note that economic conditions and lending standards interact. Poorer quality loans might continue to perform well in good economic conditions, and only fall into arrears with an economic downturn. In contrast, good quality loans will be more resilient in a downturn.

银行的放贷标准也是造成拖欠的一个原因。值得注意的是,经济形势和贷款标准是相互作用的。质量较差的贷款可能会在良好的经济条件下继续表现良好,只有在经济衰退时才会出现拖欠。相比之下,优质贷款在经济低迷时期仍将表现良好。

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