如果回购股票力度最猛的几家美国上市公司打光了子弹怎么办?

2019/06/28 07:37
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仅5家美国上市公司就在2019年1季度抛出550亿美元用于拉抬自家公司的股价

Five companies blow $55 billion in Q1 to prop up their own shares.

仅5家美国上市公司就在2019年1季度抛出550亿美元用于拉抬自家公司的股价

Apple was once again the biggest share buyback queen of them all: In the first quarter of 2019, it spent a new all-time record of $23.8 billion on buying its own shares, apparently because everyone else was selling them, and someone had to buy.

苹果公司再一次成为股票回购力度最大的美国上市公司,2019年1季度苹果公司在回购股票方面花了创纪录的238亿美元,显然是因为所有其他的人都在卖苹果公司的股票,而有人不得不进来买。

Over the past four quarters through March 31, Apple spend $75.1 billion on share buybacks to prop up its own shares, according to the latest report by S&P Dow Jones Indices. But Apple’s shares remain 16% below their peak last October. Over the past five years, Apple spent $284 billion on share buybacks.

根据标准普尔道琼斯指数公司最新发布的报告,在截止到2019年3月31日的四个季度里,苹果公司共花费751亿美元回购股票以拉抬股价,但当前的股价仍比2018年10月份的近期高点低了16%,苹果公司过去5年在回购自家股票方面总计花费2840亿美元。

When a company buys back its own shares, the shares get canceled and disappear, the cash used to buy them gets handed to sellers and is gone, and “stockholder equity” on the balance sheet drops by that amount.

当一家上市公司回购自家股票后,被回购的股票会被注销掉,用于回购股票的资金落到股票卖家的手里,资产负债表上的“股东权益”减少的部分就是股票回购的金额。

Buybacks are at the core of financial engineering: They lower the share count, and so earnings are divided by a smaller number of shares, which generates a larger earnings-per-share figure, and a lower price-earnings ratio, to bamboozle people who still bother to look at these metrics after 10 years of being told that fundamentals don’t matter.

股票回购是一整套资本运作的核心,回购会导致上市公司的总股数出现减少,公司总收益对应的股份数量小于回购前,因此每股收益增加,市盈率降低,让那些早在1 0年前就被告知基本面无关紧要但仍不厌其烦地关注这些指标的人困惑不已。

Share buybacks also cover up the dilutive effects of stock-based compensation plans and stock-based acquisitions of companies that have no earnings, such as startups, that Apple and others constantly gobble up.

股票回购操作也抵消了以股权激励为基础的管理层补偿计划以及发行新股并购企业带来的股权稀释效应,这些被苹果公司和其他大公司持续竞相收购的公司往往尚未实现盈利,比如初创型企业。

Apple still has a rock-solid balance sheet and can afford to blow this kind of money. Other companies are not so lucky; nevertheless, they did blow a ton of money on share buybacks.

苹果公司的资产负债状况仍稳如泰山,能扛得住大手大脚地回购股票资金需求,其他公司就没那么幸运了,但不管怎样,这些公司也在回购股票方面花费不菲。

In total, companies in the S&P 500 index spent $205.8 billion in Q1, the biggest first quarter ever, the second biggest of any quarter ever, and up 8.9% from Q1 2018, but down 7.7% from the all-time dizzying record in Q4 2018:

2019年1季度标准普尔500指数的各家成分股公司在回购股票方面花了2058亿美元,创下历年一季度回购额的最高纪录,也是有史以来各季度回购额的次高,与2018年一季度得回购额相比增长了8.9%,但与2018年四季度创下的历史最高纪录相比则减少了7.7%。

Over the past 12 months through March 31, share buybacks jumped 43% from the prior 12-month period, to a record $823 billion. And it’s adding up: Since 2012, share buybacks have totaled $4.03 trillion, which is about the magnitude of Germany’s annual GDP. The chart shows share buybacks for each 12-month period through Q1:

在截止到2019年3月31日的过去12个月里,美国各家上市公司用于回购股票的资金总量同比上一个12个月周期的回购额跳增了43%,达到创纪录的8230亿美元。如果从2012年开始算,美国上市公司回购股票的总规模达4.03万亿美元,与德国一年的GDP相媲美。下图显示的是在截止到各年一季度末的一年里股票回购额的变动情况:

Higher share prices in Q1 than in Q4 – less bang for the buck – and the 7.7% decline in share repurchases in Q1 from Q4 resulted in 20% fewer shares being repurchased in Q1 than in Q4. The share count dropped in aggregate by 0.94% down from a 1.18% drop in Q4.

2019年一季度的股价要比2018年四季度高,每股的含金量提高了,与2018年四季度相比2019年一季度的股票回购额降低了7.7%导致2019年一季度的股票回购数量比2018年四季度减少了20%,因回购股票导致的上市公司股票总量下跌率从2018年四季度的1.18%降至2019年一季度的0.94%。

The buybacks are “top heavy,” with only five companies accounting for $55 billion, or 27%, of total buybacks in the quarter:

2019年一季度,美国上市公司的股票回购活动具有向头部集中的特点,仅5家公司的回购额就达到了550亿美元,为当季美国上市公司回购总量的27%,其中:

  1. Apple [AAPL]: $23.8 billion in Q1; $75.1 billion over the 12 months.

    苹果公司2019年一季度的回购金额为238亿美元,过去十二个月的回购总额为751亿美元;

  2. Oracle [ORCL]: $10.0 billion in Q1; $35.3 billion over the 12 months.

    甲骨文2019年一季度的回购金额为100亿美元,过去十二个月的回购总额为353亿美元;

  3. Pfizer [PFE]: $8.9 billion in Q1; $15 billion over the 12 months.辉瑞制药2019年一季度的回购金额为89亿美元,过去十二个月的回购总额为150亿美元

  4. Bank of America [BAC]: $6.3 billion in Q1; $21.5 billion over the 12 months.

    美国银行2019年一季度的回购金额为63亿美元,过去十二个月的回购总额为215亿美元;

  5. Cisco Systems [CSCO]: $6.1 billion in Q1; $22.8 billion over the 12 months.

    思科系统2019年一季度的回购金额为61亿美元,过去十二个月的回购总额为228亿美元。

And it’s getting increasingly top heavy: The top 20 share buyback queens – of the 389 companies that reported share buybacks in Q1 – accounted for 51% of total share buybacks in Q1, up from 41% during the 12-month period, and up from 36% in the prior 12-month period.

股票回购向头部集中的特点越来越明显:2019年一季度有389家美国公司发布了股票回购的公告,其中回购规模排名前二十位的公司的回购量占全市场回购总量的比例为51%,高于过去十二个月41%的占比,也高于上一个十二个月周期中36%的占比。

The tax cut did it. Obviously, everyone knew what would happen: Passed under the pretext of encouraging US corporations to “repatriate” their previously untaxed overseas profits and invest them in the US to produce more in the US and to hire more people in the US and to move the US economy forward, these provisions of the corporate tax cut have instead led to a tsunami of share buybacks.

之所以会出现头部集中的特点是因为减税发挥了作用。很显然,每个人都知道发生了什么:减税法案是以鼓励美国公司将其原先存放海外的未纳税利润汇回和投资于美国国内以获取更高收益、增加就业并推动美国经济向前发展为借口通过的,这些公司税减免条款导致美国股市上掀起了一场股票回购的狂潮。

Everyone knew in advance it would happen, despite rhetoric to the contrary, and so share prices surged first in anticipation of a tsunami of share buybacks and then as a result of it. And when the selling went wild last year, shares plunged less because there were buyers out there, buying back their own shares, at the highest possible prices with relentless bids whose sole purpose was to drive up the price of the shares they were buying.

尽管嘴上不承认但其实每个人都在事先知道了未来会发生什么,股票价格先是因市场预测股票回购的狂潮即将到来而大涨,然后又因股票回购的狂潮确实到来而再次大涨。当美国股市在去年遭遇疯狂卖盘袭击后,美国股市的跌幅却不大,因为有买家在一旁守候,上市公司以源源不断的买单在尽可能高的价格回购自家股票,目的只有一个——把股价搞上去。

But these profits registered in overseas mailbox entities that are being “repatriated” for share buybacks are not endless, and they’re being drawn down. And borrowed money that is also used for part of these share buybacks requires loosey-goosey credit markets, which we have now, but credit cycles turn, and when investors in bonds and leveraged loans get burned, they tighten the screws, and borrowing money to blow on share buybacks gets tough.

但是这些原来由美国公司的海外实体持有并被汇回美国用于回购股票的利润并不是取之不尽用之不竭的,随着资金的汇回,海外资金的总量在减少。美国公司用于回购股票的资金中一部分来自负债,我们知道借钱需要信贷市场处于极其乐观的情绪中,就像当前一样。但是信贷周期正在发生变化,如果美国公司债和杠杆贷款市场的投资人因市场变化而受损,就会捂紧腰包,到那时候,借钱回购股票的做法就将难以为继。

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