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货币政策如何应对低于目标的通胀?

2019/07/24 16:28
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欧洲央行新任首席经济学家Philip R. Lane提到,欧洲央行的一揽子宽松措施是有效的,如果需要进一步放宽政策以实现目标,就可以这样做。

Speech by Philip Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of Finland conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU, Helsinki, 1 July 2019

欧洲央行执行委员会成员、新任首席经济学家Philip R. Lane在赫尔辛基的芬兰银行货币政策与欧洲货币联盟未来会议上发表讲话。


I would like to thank the Bank of Finland for inviting me to speak at this conference in Helsinki today.[1]

很感谢芬兰银行邀请我今天在赫尔辛基的会议上发言。

In my contribution, I wish to share some thoughts on the conduct of monetary policy in a low-inflation environment. This is a global topic that generates similar challenges for most of the central banks represented at this event. To a significant extent, this sequence of low inflation rates reflects the prolonged adjustment dynamics that characterise the aftermath of a major global financial crisis, together with a substantial downward shift in the realisation of shocks to inflation that we have observed in recent years. At the same time, regardless of the underlying origins of the current low inflation environment, some observers may be tempted to query whether and how central banks will meet their inflation objectives, especially under conditions in which monetary accommodation is already quite extensive.

在我的发言中,我想对如何在低通胀环境下实施货币政策发表一些看法。这是一个全球性的话题,对出席此次会议的大多数央行来说,都面临着类似的挑战。在很大程度上,这一连串的低通胀率反映了一场重大全球金融危机余波所特有的长期调整动力,以及我们近年来观察到的导致通胀下行的冲击。与此同时,不管当前低通胀环境的根本原因是什么,一些观察人士可能忍不住要问,各国央行是否以及将如何实现通胀目标,尤其是在货币政策已经相当宽松的情况下。

To address these concerns in respect of the euro area, I will demonstrate the effectiveness of the policy instruments that we have deployed to ensure that inflation climbs to meet our objective over the medium term. As will be explained in the analysis, my assessment is that the evidence shows that our package of monetary policy measures has been an effective response to the environment that the ECB has faced in recent years. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the policy toolkit means that we can add further monetary accommodation if it is required to deliver our objective.

为了解决欧元区的这些担忧,我将展示确保通胀率达到中期目标而采取的政策工具的有效性。有证据表明,一揽子货币政策是对欧洲央行近年来所面临环境的有效回应。此外,政策工具的有效性意味着,如果要实现我们的目标,可以进一步实施宽松货币政策。

Finally, especially when inflation deviates from its objective for an extended period, central banks ‒ including the ECB ‒ should adopt clear communication strategies that leave no doubt about their absolute commitment to meeting the inflation objective over the medium term.

最后,特别是当通胀偏离其长期目标时,各国央行——包括欧洲央行——应采取明确的沟通策略,令人相信他们在努力实现通胀的中期目标。

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