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大数据看美联储

2019/07/22 16:30
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以美联储为首的世界各国央行采取了新的宽松措施。贝莱德Jeff Shen揭示了有关货币政策的大数据,发现如果将宏观经济数据和分析师情绪的“大数据”联系起来,我们会得出一个关键结论:市场对央行宽松政策的预期可能过高。

Central banks around the world, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, have taken a newly accommodative tilt. New blog contributor Jeff Shen reveals what big data has to say about monetary policy, and why investors may have reason for caution.

以美联储为首的世界各国央行采取了新的宽松措施。贝莱德Jeff Shen揭示了有关货币政策的大数据,以及为何投资者可能有理由谨慎行事。

It’s summertime and the central banks are … well, easy. The Fed’s pivot to a more dovish monetary policy stance since May has been followed by a generalized move among other central banks in the same direction. Rhetoric from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been closely watched and markets have largely cheered the idea of lower policy rates―starting with a hoped-for cut at the end of July.

自5月以来美联储转向更为鸽派的货币政策立场之后,其他中央银行也采取了相同方向的普遍举措。美联储主席鲍威尔的言论受到密切关注,市场基本上对降低政策利率的想法感到欢欣鼓舞 - 从7月底希望的降息开始。

Yet there’s a big “but” to consider. The fact that this pivot has happened at a time when the economy appears to be doing well and risk assets are rallying is a source of confusion.

然而,有一个很大的“但是”需要考虑。事实上,这一支点发生在经济似乎表现良好且风险资产正在上涨的时候,这是一个混乱的根源。

The Fed has indicated the main reason for its dovishness is the consistent undershooting of its 2% inflation target. This is happening while labor markets remain strong, even as the U.S. economy appears to be entering the final stages of the current expansionary cycle. This confluence of factors is stoking concern.

美联储表示鸽派的主要原因是其2%的通胀目标始终低于预期。即使美国经济似乎正在进入当前扩张周期的最后阶段,劳动力市场依然强劲,这种情况正在发生。这些因素的混合引起了人们的关注。

Does the Fed need to start an easing cycle to ensure the U.S. economy can keep humming? And even if it does make that shift, would other central banks necessarily be on the same course?

美联储是否需要启动宽松周期以确保美国经济能够保持运行?即使它确实发生了这种转变,其他中央银行是否必然会采用相同的方式?

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