全球金融领域疯狂的一幕:负收益率的债券总额已达15万亿美元!

2019/08/08 07:19
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根据彭博资讯的统计,全球到期收益率低于零的未偿债券余额首度越过15万亿美元大关,其中包括各国政府发行的国债和企业发行的公司债,也有一些欧元标价的垃圾债跻身其中。

12 countries with negative 10-year yields. A race to hell.

有12个国家的10年期国债收益率是负的,在作死的路上一路狂奔!

Every day brings new indications that the financial world is going from already nuts to even nuttier. According to Bloomberg, the total amount of bonds outstanding globally that are trading with a negative yield exceed for the first time $15 trillion. This includes government and corporate debt, and also some euro junk bonds that have joined the elite group (click to enlarge):

每天都有新的迹象显示金融领域正在从本已疯狂的状态滑向更加疯狂的地狱。根据彭博资讯的统计,全球到期收益率低于零的未偿债券余额首度越过15万亿美元大关,其中包括各国政府发行的国债和企业发行的公司债,也有一些欧元标价的垃圾债跻身其中,见下图。

A chart like this, of markets and central banks chasing each other further and further into the negative-yield absurdity, is crying out loudly: “Somebody has got to put a stop to this race to hell.”

金融市场和各家央行你追我赶地将债券收益率带进荒唐的越来越低的负利率区间,上面这张图好比在大声哭喊着:“得有人站出来叫停这个末路狂奔!

The Fed was dabbling in trying to stop this race that is now leading ever deeper into negative-yield absurdity, and had even tried to reverse it, and got shouted down as can be seen in the above chart.

美联储曾经致力于终止这场如今让债券收益率更深地陷入负利率区间的末路狂奔联储甚至试图扭转乾坤却反而遭到呵止,上图就是例证。

The good news first:

先说点好的:

Yes, there are still juicy yields out there, but you have to risk your first-born to get them, if you’ll ever get paid the interest or principal. For example, Zambia. The 10-year yield on its euro-denominated bonds is now over 31%.

是的,回报丰厚的高收益率还是有的,但你得冒着堪比让投胎夭折的风险来抓这样的机会,前提是你能得到偿还的本息。举个例子,眼下赞比亚发行的10年期欧元标价国债的收益率比31%还高。

Moody’s rates Zambia’s government debt Caa2, just three tiny notches from default (my plain-English cheat sheet for credit rating scales by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch). Moody’s cited the high debt burden, liquidity risk, and external vulnerability.

穆迪公司给赞比亚政府债务的信用评级是Caa2,只比违约级高了三个细分档,穆迪给出的评级理由是该国债台高筑、流动性充满风险以及所面临的外部脆弱性。

On June 19, Zambian President Edgar Lungu announced that “Zambia is not in a position of a crisis.” He had some wise words for creditors and debtors alike:

6月19日,赞比亚总统宣布“赞比亚并未处于危机之中。”对于债权方和债务方他给出了这样一番同样有借鉴意义的高见:

“When you find that you are being strangled by debt, you hold back and see how you can realign your position so that in the end you continue being alive, you don’t suffocate. That’s where we are now.”

“当你发现你即将被债务勒死的时候,你会后退一步,搞清楚如何重新调整状态确保能最终继续生存下去,这样你就不会窒息而死,这就是当前我们所处的境况。

Investors, and the bankers that made all this possible, and China’s strategy to put its imprint on Africa have left their mark.

投资者、使这一切成为可能的银行家以及中国所采取的将影响力扩张到非洲的策略都在非洲政府债务增加的问题上留下了自己的印记

Zambia’s government debt was $2 billion in 2011. And that was manageable for a small poor country with big challenges. Then the bankers got a hold of investors who were chasing yield in the world where NIRP had arrived. And the Chinese construction boom, funded by Chinese loans, washed over Zambia with new airports, roads, and factories. By 2018, so in just seven years, Zambia’s official debt had quintupled to $10 billion.

2011年赞比亚的政府债务总额为20亿美元,对于一个面临各类重大大挑战的贫穷小国家来说这个债务规模是可控的。但随后银行家搞来一些因负利率政策到来而四处追求高回报的投资者。在来自于中国的贷款刺激下,中国在非洲搞起来的基建大潮席卷了赞比亚,新的机场,新的道路和新的工厂涌现出来。仅仅七年后的2018年,赞比亚的政府债务总额增长了四倍至100亿美元。

But last year, suspicions arose that the debt was even larger, and that the government was hiding some of its debt. It wouldn’t be that far-fetched. Mozambique’s government had to admit in 2016 that it had hidden $2 billion in debt.

但到了去年,有质疑的声音认为真实的债务金额甚至更高,赞比亚政府隐瞒了一部分债务。这不是杞人忧天,2016年莫桑比克政府曾被迫承认隐瞒了20亿美元的债务。

So maybe Zambia is not such a great place to chase yield. Maybe something like Turkey’s government bonds would be better. The 10-year yield is 15%. Turkey is currently in a financial crisis and a currency crisis, and outcomes remain iffy.

也许赞比亚并不是个很适合追求高收益的地方,可能像土耳其国债这样的一些东西会更好一些,土耳其10年期国债的收益率为15%,该国目前正在经历金融和货币危机,结局尚未可知。

Or try Argentina’s dollar-denominated bonds. Argentina’s inflation tends to run between 20% and 40% a year. But these are dollar bonds, so Argentine inflation doesn’t impact them. They’re impacted by the risk of default. Argentina is the king of defaults, defaulting with utmost reliability on its foreign currency debts and then attempting to impose haircuts on its creditors. But current creditors don’t seem to mind future haircuts, and the 10-year yield is only 6.2%. If you need a haircut, go for it.

要不就试试阿根廷政府发行的美元国债吧,该国的年均通胀增速通常在20%-40%之间。但我们说的是美元计价的国家,因此国内的通胀对美元国债没啥影响,能对美元国债产生影响的是阿根廷政府的违约风险。阿根廷堪称违约之王,违约自己所发外币债券的可能性非常大,该过政府违约后就谋求让债权人接受债务本金打折。但债权人如今似乎并不在意未来债权受损的可能性,阿根廷10年期美元国债的收益率只有6.2%,如果想让投资本金来个大缩水,就请大胆的往前走吧。

Then there is Mexico where the 10-year yield on peso debt is 7.7%, which is above Mexico’s rate of inflation, but not by much. Inflation exceeded 6% in 2017 and is currently running at around 4%. And 10 years is a long time for inflation in Mexico to run wild again, which would wipe out the purchasing power of these bonds.

下一个是墨西哥,其以墨西哥比索标价的10年期国债的收益率为7.7%,比该国的通胀率高,但没高多少。2017年墨西哥的通胀率超过了6%,现在是4%左右。10年时间足够长了,长到足以令墨西哥的通胀增速再次如脱缰野马,从而导致这些债券投资本金的购买力消失殆尽。

But this is the kind of thinking you do when trying to escape negative yields or near zero yields.

但这些就是当你试图逃离负利率或几乎零利率的收益率困扰时所能想到的投资选项。

The bad news: the NIRP zone is growing octopus-like.

再说说坏消息:负利率的地盘就像章鱼一样不断扩张

There are no more German government bonds that trade with a positive yield. The German 30-year yield, for bonds due in 2048, the longest term available, dipped into the negative briefly on Friday for the first time and sank solidly into the negative on Monday and Tuesday, currently at negative -0.036%.

现在已经没有正收益率的德国国债了,德国国债中期限最长的部分,即到期日为2048年的30年期德国国债的收益率在上周五一度跌入负利率区间,为历史上的首次,在本周前两个交易日里30年期德国国债的收益率稳稳地掉进负利率区间,如今为-0.036%。

The Swiss 30-year yield has been negative since mid-2016 and is now at negative -0.322%. But the Japanese 30-year yield is still positive at +0.29%.

30年期瑞士国债的收益率自2016年中就已经是负的了,现在是-0.322%,但30年期日本国债的收益率还是+0.29%。

Investors who buy these bonds hope that central banks will take them off their hands at even lower yields (and higher prices). No one is buying a negative yielding long-term bond to hold it to maturity.

持有这些债券的投资者寄希望于各国央行不会阻止这些债券的收益率跌得再低一些,也就是价格越来越高,没有任何一个买进负利率长期债券的投资者打算持仓到期。

Well, I say that, but these are professional money managers who buy such instruments, or who have to buy them due to their asset allocation and fiduciary requirements, and they don’t really care. It’s other people’s money, and they’re going to change jobs or get promoted or start a restaurant or something, and they’re out of there in a couple of years. Après moi le déluge.

好吧,就这么说吧,买这些债券的或因为资产配置的要求及合规的需求而不得不买进这些债券的是专业级的投资经理,他们并不真正在意收益率是不是负的。他们管理的是别人的钱,他们正忙着换工作、晋升、开饭馆或其他什么事情,几年后就不在原来的位置上了。在我以后,哪管那洪水滔天。

10-year yields.

比较一下各国10年期国债收益率

There are now 12 countries on my list whose government debt sports negative 10-year yields. Switzerland is the master, with a 10-year yield of -0.92% followed by Germany, with a 10-year yield of -0.53%, down to Slovenia in 12th position with a 10-year yield barely in the negative of -0.04%. Japan is in 10th place.

在下表中如今有12个国家的10年期国债收益率低于零,瑞士最低,其10年期国债的收益率为-0.92%,紧随其后的是德国10年期国债的-0.53%,斯洛文尼亚10年期国债的收益率排在第12位,为-0.04%,刚刚低于零,日本排在第10。

The US, with its 10-year yield today of 1.73% is in 30th position on my list of 51 countries and their 10-year yields as of August 6, 2019 (see list below). This puts the US two places behind Italy, in 28th place, with a 10-year yield of 1.51%. Think about this for a moment: The list has only 51 places, and the US with a ridiculously low 10-year yield of 1.73% is all the way down in 30th position!

至于美国,10年期美国国债收益率2019年8月6日的报价为1.73%,在下面这张一共有51个国家组成的名单中排名第30位,美国排在意大利后面两名,10年期意大利国债的收益率为1.51%。想想吧,这张排名表中一共只有51个国家,美国10年期国债收益率以低得不可思议的1.73%竟然排在第30位!

Greece, which defaulted on its debts in 2012 and imposed big haircuts on holders of Greek government bonds, is in 33rd place with a 10-year yield of 2.02%.

2012年违约债务并导致投资者本金遭受巨大缩水的希腊,其10年期国债以2.02%的收益率水平排名第33。

At the bottom of the list is, well, Zambia. Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt make up the remainder of the double-digit club:

在排名表的底部是赞比亚、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、土耳其和埃及,这些国家的10年期国债仍以两位数的收益率“傲视群雄”。

译者  王为

by Wolf Richter

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