《估值》作者达摩达兰谈特斯拉估值

2020/02/13 19:52
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《估值》作者达摩达兰谈特斯拉估值,字幕译文文稿

点击此处浏览视频,原视频来自达摩达兰Youtube频道

摘要

Tesla is a company that I have valued at least once a year for many years, and I have navigate a middle ground between those who love the company and those who hate. For most of Tesla's corporate life, I found Tesla to have potential but to be over priced, but in June 2019, I bought Tesla for the first time at $180. As luck would have it (and it was pure luck), the stock turned around and has not looked back since. Yesterday (January 29, 2020), the stock surged to hit $650 in the after-market after its most recent earnings call. I revisit and revalue the company in this session, and much as I want to continue to hold the company, I cannot justify continuing to hold it. I explain my reasoning, and you are welcome to disagree with it.

多年来,我至少每年会对特斯拉这家公司做一次估值,而在那些追捧特斯拉和憎恶特斯拉的人之间,我坚持“中间地带”的立场。自特斯拉成立以来的大多数时间中,我发现特斯拉具有潜力,但要价过高,然而在2019年6月,我还是在180美元的价位第一次买进了特斯拉。出于运气(而且纯粹是运气), 这支股票的走势逆转,自那之后不断上涨。昨天(2020年1月29日),在其最近一次财报电话会议之后,该股在后市飙升至650美元。在这堂课上,我将重估特斯拉的价值;尽管我想继续持有该公司股票,但我无法证明继续持有它的合理性。我将解释这背后的逻辑,也欢迎你提出不同的意见。

译文

(00:00) Welcome back.

欢迎回到我的频道

In this session I'd like to take a break from the data updates I've been doing

在这堂课中,我想暂时放下一直在做的数据更新

and talk a little bit about Tesla.

稍微谈一谈特斯拉

Now when I invest and do valuation, I know who my biggest enemy is,

当我在投资和估值时,我知道谁才是我最大的敌人

who's gonna get me into trouble, and it's me,

会让我惹上麻烦的人就是我自己

and it's with the priors and preconceptions that I bring into investing and decision-making.

以及我带入到投资和决策当中的先验和成见

(00:20) And for me no company captures that problem greater than Tesla,

而对我来说,没有哪家公司比特拉斯更能反映这样的问题

because Tesla in a sense is a company where there's no middle ground.

因为在某种意义上,特斯拉是一家没有“中间地带”的公司

On the one side you have optimists who believe that this company is gonna conquer the world,

在一边是乐观主义者,相信这家公司将会征服世界

and the other side you have the pessimists who are convinced that this company is a scam game, worth absolutely nothing.

而在另一边是悲观主义者,深信这家公司是一场一文不值的骗局

I've tried to have a middle ground and often failed

我尝试去坚持“中间地带”的立场,但经常落空

because I've got abused from both sides of the spectrum.

因为我遭受到来自两边立场的夹攻谩骂

(00:47) And for the first few years that I valued Tesla,

在我对特斯拉估值的头几年

and in fact, for much of its lifetime,

事实上,是自它成立以来的大多数时间中

when I valued Tesla I took the point of view that

在对特斯拉估值的过程中我形成了一种观点

it's a company with a lot of potential but I felt it was priced too high.

即这是一家极富潜力但要价太高的公司

And when I did this, of course I was accused by people or optimists of

当我提出这种观点时,我自然受到了来自乐观主义者的指摘

being in the pay of short sellers and being too bearish on Tesla.

认为我是收了做空者的好处,对特斯拉太过悲观

(01:07) Well in June of 2019 I surprised myself

而到了2019年6月,我买进特斯拉的决定令我自己

and perhaps surprised many of those people by buying Tesla.

也令那些抨击者中的许多人感到惊讶

I did it on the basis of valuation,

我是基于估值做出这一决定的

and I did it at a time when the price for Tesla dropped to a point

而且特斯拉股价当时降至了足够低的水平

where I felt it was a good investment.

让我觉得这是一个投资的好买点

Now the abuse came from the other side,

这下引来了另一边的谩骂

people who were pessimists on Tesla felt I bought into the high.

那些看空特斯拉的人觉得我是被热潮冲昏了头脑

I don't think either side is quite correct, but I can understand where they're coming from.

我觉得两边说得都不太对,但我能理解他们的想法

(01:34) So that investment that I made in $180 is the one that I don't want to revisit in this session

我不想在这堂课中,对在180美元买进的这笔投资做太多赘述

because much has happened between June of 2019 which was seven months ago,

因为从七个月前的2019年6月,到昨天的1月29日

and January 29th, which was yesterday, at the time of the earnings report.

也就是财报披露日之间,发生了很多事

In fact, I wrote this post and did this session

事实上,在特斯拉放出自己的财报之后

right after Tesla put out its earnings report.

我马上就写了文章并录制了这堂课

(01:56) So let's take a look at Tesla at June of 2019

让我们先稍微回顾一下2019年6月的特斯拉

which is when I did my last valuation.

也就是我上一次对其估值的时候

It was a dark time for Tesla, Tesla stock prices dropped about 40%,

当时特斯拉正处于低谷,特斯拉股价缩水约40%

the sky was full of dark clouds and things didn't look good for the company.

市场乌云密布,公司前景堪忧

There were questions about whether it could grow, questions about whether it could make its debt payments.

有人质疑它能否实现增长,有人质疑它能否偿还债务

So with those questions in place

正是在这些质疑的背景下

I did my valuation of Tesla in June of 2019

在2019年6月我对特斯拉做了估值

I adopted what I thought were fairly conservative assumptions,

我当时采用的是在我看来非常保守的假设

and you can make your own judgement whether they're conservative or not,

你对这些假设是否保守当然也可以有自己的判断

to get to a value of about $190 per share.

得出大约每股190美元的估值

(02:34) We'll quickly review the story I was telling for Tesla in June of 2019.

我们来快速回顾一下我在2019年6月阐述的特斯拉故事

It was a story to success,

这是一个通向成功的故事

in terms of growing from being a company with about 22 billion in revenues

这家公司将在未来十年从约220亿美元营收

to about 100 billion in revenues over the next 10 years,

增长至约1000亿美元营收

with margins improving to the 75th percentile of automobile companies,

利润率将提升至同行业汽车公司的75百分位数

about 10% margins,

也就是约10%的利润率

and requiring a lot of reinvestment to get that,

并需要大量的再投资来达到这样的水平

the reinvestment I computed by assuming that for every dollar of capital they invested they'd get two dollars of revenues.

再投资的计算基于每投资1美元就能产生2美元营收的假设

The value that I got was about $190,

我得出的估值大约为190美元

the stock was trading in $186 when I did the valuation.

而完成估值时,股票交易的价位在186美元

But while I was doing the valuation some bad news came out

但在我做估值的时间点上,出现了一些利空消息

the stock dropped below $180 and I put in a limit buy that was executed at $180.

股价跌至180美元下方,而我挂出的限价买单在180美元成交了

(03:20) I remember when I bought Tesla at $180, I was cautioned by all-time value investors

我记得我在180美元价位买进特斯拉的时候,长期价值投资者曾警告我

that I wasn't giving myself enough margin for safety;

认为我没有留出足够的安全边际

After all my value is $190, the stock is $180, that's not much of a margin.

确实,我的估值是190美元,而买进价是180美元,边际是没多少

And my pushback was the margin of safety sometimes misses big issues.

而我反驳的点是,安全边际有时会遗漏重大事项

In the case of Tesla, I think the big issue that's missed by looking at that margin of safety

就特斯拉而言,我觉得安全边际思维所遗漏的重大事项

is that the tail of distribution is on the upside,

是概率分布的尾部风险偏向上行

there are potentially far more positive surprises than negative surprises.

正面意外事件的潜在概率远高于负面意外事件

So I was buying the tail and I felt that at $180 I was getting a good bargain.

所以我买的就是尾部风险,而我觉得在180美元买进是一笔好交易

(03:54) Now I'll make a confession, when I bought the stock at $180

我要坦白的是,当我在180美元买进特斯拉股票时

I didn't think it would turn around

我没想到它的走势会逆转

In fact, I was convinced that it was - more bad news are coming,

事实上,我当时深信形势还会进一步恶化

the momentum is all against it,

动量指标也都在释放卖出信号

but I got incredibly lucky - that's the word to describe it.

但是我真的很走运——想不出还有什么词能形容了

This wasn't great timing, it wasn't some insight I had

交易的择时不是很好,我也没有什么独到见解

I just got lucky.

就只是走运罢了

Because almost on my sell (?), the stock turned around,

因为几乎就是在我交易的时间节点上,股票走势开始逆转

and it went up and up and up.

并不断创出新高

In fact yesterday, just before the earnings report came out, the stock was trading at $581.

事实上昨天,就在财报披露前,股价已经达到581美元

From $180 to $581 in seven months, and I knew I had to revisit my valuation.

短短七个月就从180美元涨至581美元,我知道是时候重做我的估值了

(04:30) So I took a look at what's happened since June of 2019

所以我回顾了自2019年6月以来的事件

that might or might not explain the surge in the price.

从中寻找可以解释股价暴涨的原因

The first is, those questions about growth have not quite gone away but they've taken a back seat,

首先,那些针对增长的质疑虽未消散,但也暂告一段落

because it looks like Tesla is rediscovering some growth,

因为特斯拉似乎重又有了增长的迹象

not the stratospheric growth that you saw four or five years ago,

虽比不上四五年前那种直入云霄的高增长

but decent enough growth that you can map out a plan for them to continue to grow.

但也足以为投资者勾勒出一幅持续增长的图景

So this is return to growth.

所以第一点原因是增长的回归。

The second and this is I think one of the bigger changes that Tesla has,

第二点原因,是特斯拉内部发生的一大变化

one of Tesla's problems through its entire life

自成立以来始终困扰特斯拉的问题之一

has been an inability to meet delivery deadlines

就是一直无法按期交付订单

and have a supply chain that actually works.

供应链也运作不起来

And for the first time in its life, I thought Tesla turned its attention to operations.

而在我看来,特斯拉破天荒地将精力放在了经营上

You saw production without drama.

生产流程上不再有差池

Remember that a couple of years ago when you had the drama of

还记得几年前投资者仍在担忧

"could they produce 5000 cars a week or couldn't they?"

“特斯拉到底能不能实现周产5000辆车?”

That was gone, they were actually matching -

这种疑虑已经一扫而空

they were actually delivering cars close to what they were promising,

特斯拉的交付数量实际上已经接近其承诺的目标

and they actually got the production plant that they were building in Shanghai online quicker than was expected.

他们甚至设法让上海在建的生产工厂比预期更早投产

So you could see operating improvements.

所以投资者能看到特斯拉的经营改善

And finally, and I know this is going to sound small-minded of me,

最后一点原因,可能会让我听起来有些小心眼

but Elon Musk turned quiet during this period.

那就是埃隆·马斯克在此期间变得很少发声

You are saying, "so what?"

你会说,“那又怎样?”

Well Elon Musk is both the company's biggest strength and its biggest weakness.

埃隆-马斯克是这家公司的最大优点,也是最大缺点

Let's face it, there would be no Tesla without Elon Musk's vision and views about the future,

直白地讲,没有埃隆·马斯克对未来的愿景与观念,就不会有特斯拉

but he's also an impediment to the company in terms of creating distractions.

但在制造干扰方面,他同时也是这家公司的障碍

Tesla is a story stock,

特斯拉是一支“讲故事”的股票

and Elon Musk has been responsible for creating distractions in the story,

而埃隆·马斯克总是在故事当中制造干扰

whether it's going after a diver in Thailand

不论是在网络上抨击泰国的一名潜水员

(屏幕上方注,同屏换行显示:2018年的泰国溶洞救援事件中,参与解救受困儿童的英国潜水员昂斯沃思

批评马斯克提出的“迷你潜艇”方案是一种“公关噱头”,而马斯克在推特上抨击昂斯沃思是“恋童癖”

昂斯沃思上法庭控告马斯克诽谤,虽然最终马斯克胜诉,但在庭上马斯克向昂斯沃思做公开道歉)

or talking about a different business model.

或者对一种不同的商业模式张口就来

(屏幕上方注,同屏换行显示:2018年9月,美国证券交易委员会将马斯克告上法庭

认为马斯克有关“特斯拉私有化所需的融资已经确保”的推文涉嫌误导投资者

双方和解结果为马斯克个人与特斯拉各罚款2000万美元,马斯克辞去特斯拉董事长一职但仍任CEO)

So that relative silence from Musk I think

所以我认为,马斯克的相对沉默

helped the investors focus in on what Tesla's biggest strength is,

有助于投资者将重点放在特斯拉的最大优点上

there is still a core story that's a strong story.

特斯拉的核心故事仍然有着非常强大的吸引力

(06:25) Now there's one other issue with Tesla that I think is worth examining

特斯拉还有另一项问题我认为值得考察

which can explain why the value can move pretty dramatically.

并有助于解释价值为何会发生如此戏剧性的波动

I've long argued that there are two different numbers in the market:

我持有的长期观点是,市场上有两个不同的数字

There's the value that comes from cash flows, growth, risk and fundamentals,

一个是诞生于现金流、增长、风险与基本面的价值

and price that is set by demand and supply,

另一个是由供求关系决定的价格

and I've argued that those two mechanisms can yield very different numbers.

而我的观点是,这两组机制会产生截然不同的数字

In the case of Tesla, there's a feedback loop from price to value,

在特斯拉的案例中,从价格到价值存在着一种反馈回路

let me explain what I mean.

我来解释一下这是什么意思

First, remember Tesla has about 13 billion dollars in debt,

首先,还记得特斯拉有130亿美元债务

now that 13 billion dollars in debt was there in June of 2019, it's still there in January 2020

2019年6月的这130亿美元债务,到2020年1月还是在那里

but here is where the stock price makes a difference.

但股价的变化却令形势有所不同

A chunk of that debt is convertible debt, and when the stock price rises, the debt becomes less onerous,

债务中的一部分属于可转债,而当股价上涨时,债务负担就会减轻

in other words, as the stock price rises, the default risk at death for Tesla actually decreases.

换句话讲,随着股价上涨,特斯拉破产违约的风险实际上在降低

And this shows up in two places, one is as a lower default spread and lower cost of capital

而这会反映在两个方面,首先是更低的违约利差和更低的资本成本

and the second is in terms of the probability that they will fail.

其次是特斯拉破产概率的降低

There was talk about failure in June of 2019 that they wouldn't be able to make their debt payments,

2019年6月曾有人讨论特斯拉破产的可能性,声称特斯拉无力偿还债务

that's kind of moved away because the stock price has gone up.

而因为股价的上涨,这种言论也随之烟消云散

The second feedback loop that occurs, this is another positive,

另外还有一种正面反馈回路

is Tesla's a company that will need to raise external capital to grow,

即便是一位乐观主义者

even if you're an optimist,

也应该知道特斯拉是一家需要筹集外部资本支持增长的公司

because to get from half a million cars or 400,000 cars to two million cars would require production,

因为(交付数量)从40、50万辆提升到200万俩需要扩大生产

production will need facilities to be built that require capital,

而扩大生产需要扩建设施,对资本也就有了要求

and if the stock price is higher, you need to issue fewer shares to raise capital.

而如果股价更高,筹集资本所需的股票发行量就更少

So as prices rise, there's a positive feedback effect.

因此,随着股价上涨,是会有正面的反馈效应

(08:07) There's one potential negative feedback effect.

同样也会有潜在负面的反馈效应

Tesla has a lot of options outstanding,

特斯拉有大量的未行使认股期权

a big chunk of those options actually were granted to Elon Musk

其中大部分实际上是针对埃隆·马斯克的绩效激励计划

by a Board of Directors that didn't know what they were doing, I think.

该计划由一个不知道自己在做什么的董事会批准

There were 32 million options outstanding.

总共有3200万股的未行使认股期权

You'd think, "so what?"

你会想,“那又怎样?”

As the stock price rises the value drained from that options becomes greater

随着股价上涨,被这些认股期权抽走的价值就越高

So there's a negative feedback effect.

因此是会有负面的反馈效应

(08:30) So I'm going to try to factor those in to revalue Tesla in January 2020.

所以在2020年1月对特斯拉的重估中,我尝试将上述效应计入进来

First, let's look at the base year numbers.

首先,让我们看看基年数字

In this table I've compared what the base year numbers look like in June 2019 to Jan-20.

在这张表中,我对比了2019年6月与2020年1月的基年数字

No huge movements and it shouldn't -

两者之间没有,也不应该有太大变化——

there's been only 7 months between those numbers and 3 earnings reports.

在两组数字之间才刚过7个月和3次财报披露

The revenues have increased by about 9%, not bad, but not as good as it used to be three years ago, four years ago,

营收提高了约9%,表现不错,虽然不如三四年前那么强劲

but certainly better than what some people were predicting in June of 2019.

但绝对比2019年6月一些人预测的情况要好

The operating margins have become less negative,

营业利润率不再深陷负区间

in fact, in the last quarter Tesla's operating margins actually turned positive,

事实上,特斯拉上一季度的营业利润率还转正了

nothing to write home about yet,

虽然数字并不抢眼

but that plus makes a difference.

但那个正号却让形势大为不同

And in terms of cash and marketable securities,

再来看现金和有价证券

there's a big jump between June of 2019 and Jan-20,

在2019年6月与2020年1月间有了显著的提高

again a fact that's going to reduce default risk.

这也是降低违约风险的一个要素

The number of shares pretty much stayed stagnant.

流通股数基本上保持不变

And I should note that the Jan-20 numbers, I'm using the earnings release from yesterday,

应当注意的是,我使用的2020年1月数字取自昨天的财报披露

and those are not complete numbers yet.

而披露中的数字并不完整

So I'll wait and revisit those numbers from the full 10-K

因此在完整10-K年度财报提交之后

when the full 10-K gets filed.

我将根据完整10-K重新计算这些数字

(屏幕上方注:完整10-K的估值结果请见本视频下半部分,敬请期待)

(09:41) We go through the changes I made in my forecast,

我们再来看看我在预测中做出的改动

because that's what's going to drive my value as of January 2020.

因为我在2020年1月的估值,正是由这些预测决定的

First I'm forecasting more revenues in the future.

首先我预测特斯拉在未来将有更高的营收

Now you can look at the growth rate,

从增长率中可见一斑

but the growth rate actually is a less - it's not as good an indicator as looking at the expected revenues I have 10 years out.

但看增长率不如看我对十年后的预期营收来得直观

In June 2019 that number was 102 billion in 10 years.

2019年6月,这个数字是十年后达到1020亿美元

Now I'm predicting 126 billion, close to 126 billion.

现在我预计,十年后特斯拉的营收将接近1260亿美元

What caused the change?

是什么促成了这一改动?

Part of it is Tesla's growth - return to growth,

部分原因在于特斯拉增长的回归

part of it is the struggle the traditional auto companies seem to be having making inroads into the EV market.

部分原因在于传统车企打入电动车市场过程中的一波三折

I've also improved my operating margin from 10% to 12%,

我还将营业利润率从10%上调至12%

that's a pretty strong move because 10% is already the 75th percentile,

上调幅度非常之大,因为10%足以跻身75百分位数

now making Tesla a even more profitable company with a 12% margin,

将特斯拉视作利润率高达12%的盈利能力更强的公司

I'm getting more optimistic in my story.

说明我讲述的故事确实更加乐观了

On the sales to capital ratio which measures how efficient I am investing,

在衡量投资效率的指标,销售额-资本比率上

the long term numbers have stayed around 2.00 - which is good for an automobile company,

长期数字仍维持在2.00左右——这对一家车企而言很是优秀

but for the next five years, I actually allowed Tesla to grow with relatively low reinvestment

但我还预计,特斯拉在未来五年中可以用相对低的再投资实现增长

and here is why: according to the Tesla earnings release yesterday,

而原因在于,根据特斯拉昨天的财报披露

they now have capacity to produce about 640,000 cars,

他们目前的产能已经达到64万辆

which is well ahead of what they would need to produce for next year and perhaps even the year after.

这已经远超他们明年甚至后年的生产所需

They're getting a little breathing room in terms of adding capacity

在产能扩充上,他们获得了一点喘息的空间

because they've got ahead of the capacity they need.

因为他们的产能水平已经抢在了需求前面

So to the extent that I trust Tesla,

因此,就我对特斯拉的信任程度

I'm allowing them to get three dollars of revenues for every dollar of capital invested.

我预测他们能够达到每投资1美元就能产生3美元营收的水平

There's been a drop in the cost of capital, very little to do with Tesla

资本成本也有可观的下降,不过这并非特斯拉的功劳

but more because of what's happened in the market.

而更多是缘于市场上的形势变化

First, risk-free rates have decreased by about half a percent.

首先,无风险利率下降了约0.5个百分点

In addition, equity risk premiums have dropped from between June and now

此外,股权风险溢价自去年6月以来也有所下降

and you can see that from my website.

你可以从我的网站上观察到这一点

The overall effect is the cost of capital for Tesla as a company has decreased from what it was in 2019.

总体影响是,特斯拉的资本成本自2019年以来已有所降低

One final change. In 2019, because of Tesla's troubles

还有最后一点改动。在2019年,鉴于特斯拉面临的重重困难

and the debt that they had seemed like something that could get them into serious trouble,

以及似乎有可能令其陷入困境的债务负担

I've lowered that probability of failure from 20% in June of 2019 to 10% now.

2019年6月我曾给出20%的破产概率,而现在我将之下调至10%

Overall, I'm telling a much more optimistic story about Tesla and not surprisingly,

总体而言,我阐述的特斯拉故事远比之前要乐观

the value reflects it.

而新的估值也正反映了这一点

The higher revenues help, the margins help, the lower cost of capital helps,

更高的营收、改善的利润率以及更低的资本成本都有所裨益

but they all feed into a value per share of $427.

而最后这些全部转化为了每股427美元的估值

(12:11) Now part of you are saying,

现在你要问了

"can the intrinsic value change that much in seven months?"

“(特斯拉的)内在价值真的能在7个月内改变这么多吗?”

We've been told intrinsic value is stable; we've been told wrong.

课本告诉我们内在价值是稳定的;课本错了

A company like Tesla, intrinsic value can and should change.

像特斯拉这样的公司,内在价值可以改变,也应当改变

In fact, to show you where the change is coming from, here's what I did.

事实上,为了向你展示这些改变从何如来,我来分步骤展示一下

I went back to my June 2019 value, which is $190 per share,

我回溯到2019年6月的估值,即每股190美元

and made one change at a time.

每步展示一点改变

First I changed my base year numbers,

首先,我改变了基年数字

in terms of revenues and operating income, that cause an increase of about $24 per share.

在营收和营业利润上,这带来了每股24美元的价值增长

Then I lower the cost of capital that increase the value by another $66 per share.

然后我下调了资本成本,使价值增加了每股66美元

The higher revenue growth increases another $58 per share.

更高的营收增长增加了每股58美元

Improving the margin has the biggest move, it increases my value by about $115 per share,

利润率的改善带了最大的改变,让我的估值增加了每股约115美元

accounts for 44% of the overall increase in value per share.

占到每股价值总增长的44%

Drop in the probability of failure increases my value by about $28.

破产概率的下降增加了每股28美元的价值

Change in the net debt with the higher cash balance increases the value by about $20.

更高的现金余额带来的净债务的变化,使价值增加了每股20美元

And finally, the only negative here, is because the stock price has gone up so much,

最后是这张表上唯一的减值,即因为股价上涨了如此之多

those 32 million options outstanding are a bigger drain on value.

使得3200万股的未行使期权抽走了更多的价值

The overall effect is an increase in value of about $259 per share,

总体影响是每股价值增加了259美元

(屏幕上方注:此处系教授口误,按表格数据做了修改)

if you take into account the fact that you now have essentially all of these positive ingredients working on it.

只消计入所有这些正面因素你也能得到这样的结果

(13:32) So, what now?

那么,接下来该怎么办呢?

I'll make a confession, I went into this valuation hoping

我得坦白的是,我做这次估值的初衷

that I could continue to hold on to Tesla for at least a few more months.

是希望能够再多持有特斯拉几个月

Two reasons: one is it's nice to have a winner,

有两点原因:其一是有一支浮盈的股票感觉很棒

you like your winners in your portfolio.

谁都喜欢自己的投资组合里有浮盈的股票

In fact, when the stock has done this well, you want to hold on for a little longer.

事实上,每当股票表现如此优秀,你都会想多持有一阵子

The second is more pragmatic. I've held the stock for about seven months,

第二点原因则更加务实。我持有这支股票已经七个月了

if I sell now, those will be short-term capital gains

如果我现在卖出,所得会被算作短期资本利得

and at least in the US I get taxed with an ordinary tax rate.

至少在美国我会按照应缴税率被税

If I can hold on for about five months more, it becomes long-term capital gains,

如果我再持有五个月,所得则会变成长期资本利得

save me about 20% of my gains and taxes, that's a pretty substantial savings.

从而为我的税后所得省下约20%,这可省下了不少钱

Well that might be what's driving the optimist in my numbers.

从而可能令我在数字上对前景更加乐观

You are probably saying, "why are your revenue so much higher?"

你可能会说,“为什么你的营收数字高了那么多?”

I'd be lying if I'd say the good feeling in the market is not affecting my valuation,

我不能昧着良心说市场上的乐观情绪没有影响我的估值

but even with those optimistic assumptions,

但即使考虑了这些乐观假设

the value per share that I got, $427, and I did this after close of trade yesterday,

昨天收市后我所做的每股估值427美元

was lower than the closing price of $581

也仍比收盘价581美元来得要低

and then once the earnings report came out, the after-market price jumped to $650.

而当晚财报一出,盘后股价便跳涨至650美元

I can't get there even with my optimistic assumptions.

就连我最乐观的假设,都得不到这么高的估值

It is true that I could do some what-ifs, right?

我确实可以做进一步的假设分析

I could raise the revenues to 200 billion, play with the margins,

我可以把预计营收上调到2000亿美元,模拟几种利润率场景

but the keyword is "play", those numbers are possible but they're not -

但关键词是“模拟”,这些数字是存在可能,但它们不是——

I don't think they are plausible or probable, it will be game-playing,

我不觉得它们是合理或大概率事件,不过是纸上谈兵

and it's one reason why I don't like to do what-if analyses.

这也是为什么我不喜欢做假设分析

(15:03) You are saying, "well don't I have to deal with uncertainty?"

你可能会说,“那我不还是得处理不确定性吗?”

There's a better way to do it,

其实有更好的处理方法

and you might have seen me do this in prior valuations.

而且你可能在过往估值中见识过我的操作

So I took Tesla and I did a simulation.

用特斯拉的数据,我做了一番模拟

I built it around four distributions,

模型基于四项概率分布

one for revenue growth, where I let the revenue growth vary from 15% to 35%;

一项是营收增长,我让营收增长在15%至35%的区间变化

one on operating margins, where I essentially allowed for the margin to be different from 12%, lower and higher;

一项是营业利润率,本质上就是让利润率围绕12%上下浮动

one on sales to capital in that first five years,

一项是未来五年的销售额-资本比率

where you could disagree with me about how much they would need to reinvest, either on the optimistic side or the pessimistic side;

可根据你是乐观还是悲观调整特斯拉的再投资资金需求

and finally one on the cost of capital.

而最后一项是资本成本

With those distributions, you see my value distribution for Tesla.

通过这些概率分布,就得出了我对特斯拉的估值分布

Now the way I use this value distribution is to look at those percentiles at the bottom.

估值分布对我的用处在于下方的百分位数表

Now remember that at the $650 stock price in the after-market trading

还记得盘后交易中特斯拉的股价达到了650美元

I'm close to the 90th percentile of my value.

也就是说已经逼近90百分位数

Could Tesla be worth more than $650?

特斯拉的价值能超过每股650美元吗?

Yes, but it's not plausible or possible at least according to my assumptions.

能,但至少从我的假设出发,这既不合理也非大概率事件

(屏幕上方注:本视频制作于1月30日;2月4日特斯拉股价盘中最高触及968.99美元,目前回落至750美元上方)

(16:07) So my decision, you know, as I said my decision was delayed by the fact that I want to hold on

所以如前所述,我的决定因为继续持有的渴望而被推迟了

I did look at options; I said maybe I can buy some put options

我确实考虑过期权;我想也许我可以买一些看跌期权

to delay taking my capital gain,

来推迟对资本利得的提取

but options on Tesla are so incredibly expensive given how much volatility priced into them

但特斯拉期权因其价格中计入的巨大波动性而贵得吓人

that it's too expensive for me.

起码对我而言太贵了

So reluctantly I am selling my Tesla,

所以我不情愿的卖出了手中的特斯拉股票

in fact, I sold it this morning.

事实上,我今早刚把它卖掉

Close to the open I put in a limit sell at $640,

临开盘前我挂出了640美元的限价卖单

it got executed within 15 minutes of the open.

在开盘后的15分钟内就成交了

But my Tesla holding is gone, and as with my (order in) June 2019,

但我的特斯拉股票已经清仓,而就像我在2019年6月买入时一样

in the near term I don't expect the stock to drop,

我预计这支股票在短期内不会下跌

in fact I expect it to keep going up,

事实上我预计它还会继续上涨

the momentum is good, the mood is exuberant, it's going to end up...

动量指标很不错,市场情绪很高昂,它会节节攀升

So in the near term the price will probably continue to go up,

所以在短期内,特斯拉股价可能会继续上涨

perhaps I'm leaving money on the table, but I have no regrets.

也许我有该赚的钱没赚到,但我并不后悔

Now as I describe it, I came to play the value game

我一直在说,我遵循的是估值策略

and I have to stay true to that game.

我也得坚持我的策略

If I now start to play momentum, I'm playing the pricing game,

如果我现在开始做动量策略、定价策略

and frankly I'm not very good at it, there're people much better at it.

坦白地说我并不擅长这些,做这些有人比我厉害得多

And finally, you know, I liked having Tesla in my portfolio

最后,我喜欢在投资组合中持有特斯拉

for the obvious reason that it made money for me

一方面很明显是因为它让我赚了大钱

but also because it's an exciting company.

但另一方面是因为它是一家激动人心的公司

So I'm selling it with some regret and sad that it's leaving my portfolio

所以卖出的决定很艰难,我也很遗憾它现在不再是投资组合的一部分

but here's the way I console myself:

但我是这么安慰自己的

This isn't a permanent parting, it's a separation, and my view is

这并非永别,只是短暂分离,而我的观点是

that sooner or later Tesla is going to be back in portfolio

特斯拉早晚会回到我的投资组合中来

because given how mood and momentum shifts in the stock,

因为考虑到围绕特斯拉股票的情绪与动量变化

it can be undervalued six months from now.

六个月后这支股票可能会再次被低估

So, now watch out for my next update!

所以请务必关注我的下期更新!

Thank you for listening to me.

感谢收看我的这期课程

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