美联储2021年4月议息会议纪要笔记

2021/05/20 04:42
收藏
有关美债收益率上行、Taper的技术细节、利率的技术性调整、回购工具转为常备以及经济、就业与通胀的看法

今天凌晨,美联储公布了4月议息会议的纪要。未来我们将对每一次会议纪要进行分析导读,本系列是智堡美联储议息会议笔记的姊妹系列。

智堡现已支持黑金会员补差升级为元会员

小Tips:会议纪要(Minutes)是美联储联邦公开市场委员会提供的重要会议材料,FOMC每次定期会议的纪要涵盖了与会者在会议上讨论的重大政策问题。

纪要(Minutes)是对在议息会议当天公布的声明(Statements)中的政策决定成因的解释与补充。

会议纪要的发布时间是联储议息会议及政策声明公布后的三周。虽然存在三周的时滞,但纪要中的补充内容仍然会影响市场的预期。

笔记1 有关美债收益率上行

4月议息会议以前,市场对美债收益率的快速上行比较担忧,在纪要中,联储亦提及了长债收益率的上行。

After rising sharply in recent months, longer-term Treasury yields declined modestly over the intermeeting period, even as market expectations for U.S. growth continued to be revised higher. Contacts reported that the earlier increases in yields drew in a range of investors, including foreign institutions, pension funds, and insurance companies. Against this backdrop, term premiums as measured by term structure models and based on estimates using the Open Market Desk's surveys of primary dealers and market participants moved slightly lower. Nonetheless, market participants were attentive to the potential for rising yields going forward, and, in recent months, Desk survey respondents had increased the probability they attach to higher yields at the end of 2021.

长债收益率在近几个月的大幅上升以后,在议息会议期间小幅下降,即使市场对美国经济增长的预期继续被上调。联储的一些内线联系人汇报说,早先的美国长债收益率上升吸引了一系列的投资者,包括外国的机构、养老金和保险公司。而在这一背景下,由期限结构模型所衡量的期限溢价,以及根据公开市场办公室对一级交易商和市场参与者的调查而得出的期限溢价估算值都略有下降。一些市场参与者着眼于未来收益率上升的可能性,在最近几个月,联储公开市场操作台的调查对象调高了他们对2021年底美债收益率上升的概率。

笔记2 有关Taper的技术细节

纪要中提到,根据联储的调查,中位数显示,联储的Taper(削减资产购买)将在首次削减以后的三个季度后完成。

According to the median survey responses, the Federal Reserve's net purchases of Treasury and agency securities were expected to end three quarters after the first reduction in the pace of asset purchases.

市场预期在此之后再过三个季度联储将开始加息。

and the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was expected to occur three quarters after that.

在讨论美联储的资产购买政策时,多位与会者指出,相对于2020年12月委员会首次提供的资产购买指引时的情况,经济在实现委员会的充分就业和价格稳定目标方面进一步取得实质性进展可能还需要一段时间。

与委员会基于经济结果的指引意见一致,资产购买将至少以目前的速度持续下去,直到经济取得实质性进展。

许多与会者强调,委员会必须在经济情况已经被评估为“实质性进展”以前,向市场做好有关Taper的提前沟通。

一些与会者建议,如果经济继续朝着委员会的目标快速发展,那么在未来即将举行的议息会议上开始讨论调整资产购买步伐的计划可能是合适的

In their discussion of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, various participants noted that it would likely be some time until the economy had made substantial further progress toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals relative to the conditions prevailing in December 2020 when the Committee first provided its guidance for asset purchases.

Consistent with the Committee's outcome-based guidance, purchases would continue at least at the current pace until that time. Many participants highlighted the importance of the Committee clearly communicating its assessment of progress toward its longer-run goals well in advance of the time when it could be judged substantial enough to warrant a change in the pace of asset purchases.

The timing of such communications would depend on the evolution of the economy and the pace of progress toward the Committee's goals. A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.

笔记3 有关利率的技术性调整

纪要中提到了未来联储对利率走廊进行技术性调整的可能性。主因仍然是流动性过剩。

虽然联储的宽松导致银行体系内有大量的超额准备金,达到了3.9万亿美元规模之巨,但SOFR仍然处于正值,ONRRP工具非常良好地在运作“抽水”,避免利率突破0利率下界。隔夜回购市场确实出现了少量的负利率交易,但主因还是技术性因素所致。

SOMA(美联储资产组合管理者)表示,未来几个月如果利率下行(并突破0%)的压力加剧,那么将可能会调整其管理利率,一半以上市场参与者预期6月份的会议上就会调整,调整(调高)ONRRP的利率(美联储负债利率)会导致资金往其他的联储负债项流转。

The manager turned next to money markets and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Reserve balances increased further this intermeeting period to a record level of $3.9 trillion. The effective federal funds rate was steady at 7 basis points. However, amid ongoing strong demand for safe short-term investments and reduced Treasury bill supply, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) stood at 1 basis point throughout the period. The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility continued to effectively support policy implementation, and take-up peaked at more than $100 billion. A modest amount of trading in overnight repurchase agreement (repo) markets occurred at negative rates, although this development appeared to largely reflect technical factors. The SOMA manager noted that downward pressure on overnight rates in coming months could result in conditions that warrant consideration of a modest adjustment to administered rates and could ultimately lead to a greater share of Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion being channeled into ON RRP and other Federal Reserve liabilities. Although few survey respondents expected an adjustment to administered rates at the current meeting, more than half expected an adjustment by the end of the June FOMC meeting.

笔记4 讨论回购工具是否应该转为常备

纪要显示,工作人员向FOMC与会者介绍了2019年回购波澜以来的回购工具使用状况,包括对外国货币当局和国际机构的FIMA回购工具。比较值得一提的是,简报有提到回购工具是否应该转为永久性的常备便利工具,而非临时性的公开市场操作工具。

The briefing also reviewed considerations that could be relevant for policymakers' judgments regarding whether these arrangements should become permanent standing facilities.

关于永久性常备回购机制的考量,工作人员的简报指出,常备回购便利工具有助于防止货币市场的资金紧张,而资金紧张可能会蔓延到其他隔夜货币市场并限制交易商在金融市场的中介活动。

然而,常备回购便利工具可以被视作是对非银行金融机构的一种流动性支持,它可以激励那些可以使用该回购工具的机构对符合回购抵押融资条件的证券承担比其他情况下更多的流动性风险。

Regarding considerations concerning a permanent standing repo facility, the briefing noted that standing repo operations could be viewed as useful in forestalling funding strains that could spill over into other overnight markets and limit dealers' intermediation activity in financial markets. However, a standing repo facility could be seen as a form of liquidity support for nonbank financial institutions, and one that could create incentives for firms with access to the facility to take on more liquidity risk against eligible securities than would otherwise be the case.

而在讨论设立常备FIMA回购工具的考量时,工作人员指出,这种工具可以限制外国官方机构在压力情形下大量出售美债的倾向,而这种倾向又可能加剧更广泛的美国国内金融市场的紧张。

the staff noted that such a facility could limit the propensity for foreign official institutions to execute large sales of U.S. Treasury securities in a stress environment that, in turn, could exacerbate strains in broader U.S. domestic financial markets.

在讨论这一考量时,委员会认为常备回购便利工具作为现有准备金充裕框架中的政策实施实践,利大于弊。

几乎所有的参与者认为常备回购便利工具作为一种流动性支持可以帮助解决美国国债和国债回购市场的压力,而这些压力可能会蔓延到其他货币市场,并损害货币政策的实施和传导。

许多与会者指出,常备回购便利工具可以对初期的市场压力作出及时自动的反应——这种压力可能难以预料,因此,可能难以响应式地通过政策裁量来快速解决。

Many participants noted that a standing facility could provide a timely and automatic response to incipient market pressures; they remarked that such pressures can be difficult to anticipate and, as a result, might not be as promptly addressed with discretionary operations.

一些与会者指出,常备回购便利工具可以为交易对手方在管理其持有的高质量流动性资产(HQLA)的构成方面提供额外的灵活性,从而可能减少对准备金的需求(因为随时可以拿抵押品找联储回购换准备金,笔者注)。

A few participants noted that a standing repo facility could provide counterparties with additional flexibility in managing the composition of their holdings of high-quality liquid assets, potentially reducing the demand for reserves.

常备回购便利工具可被视为支持美国财政部融资(因为所有的美债被一级交易商承接后都可以经由回购工具换取准备金,笔者注)的一种手段,或作为美联储对非存款机构(非银部门最后贷款人工具,笔者注)的永久性流动性支持。

其他一些与会者指出,这种机制有可能挤出私人市场的流动性供应来源(因为可以找联储借,笔者注)。

A few participants mentioned that a standing repo facility could be perceived as a means of supporting the financing of the U.S. Treasury or as a permanent Federal Reserve liquidity backstop for nondepository institutions; a couple of others called out the risk that such a facility could crowd out private market sources of liquidity provision.

笔记5 FOMC对经济、就业以及通胀的看法

虽然经济活动已经出现了大幅回升,但是委员会仍然认为经济距离其双重使命的目标还很遥远。

Nevertheless, participants generally noted that the economy remained far from the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals.

经济远未实现委员会的基础广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标。

Even so, participants judged that the economy was far from achieving the Committee's broad-based and inclusive maximum-employment goal.

一些与会者指出,劳动力市场的复苏在不同人口和收入群体以及不同的部门之间仍然是不平衡的。

许多与会者还指出,他们所在地区的企业联系人报告说在雇用工人方面遇到了困难,这可能反映了诸如提前退休、健康问题、育儿责任和失业保险福利等因素,这些因素正在压制劳动力参与率。

Many participants also remarked that business contacts in their Districts reported having trouble hiring workers, likely reflecting factors such as early retirements, health concerns, childcare responsibilities, and expanded unemployment insurance benefits.

Many participants noted as well that these factors were depressing the labor force participation rate, relative to its pre-pandemic level.

一些与会者指出,对劳动力需求的增加已经开始对工资造成一些上升的压力。

some participants noted that the step-up in demand for labor had started to put some upward pressure on wages.

有关通胀,与会者预计,PCE将在短期内超过2%。

participants anticipated that inflation as measured by the 12-month change of the PCE price index would move above 2 percent in the near term.

与会者还指出,随着经济的进一步复苏,预期的需求激增,加上一些临时性的供应链瓶颈,将促使PCE通胀暂时略高于2%。在这些临时性影响消褪以后,与会者普遍预计通胀将有所缓和。

Participants also noted that the expected surge in demand as the economy reopens further, along with some transitory supply chain bottlenecks, would contribute to PCE price inflation temporarily running somewhat above 2 percent.

一些与会者表示,供应链瓶颈和投入不足可能不会很快得到解决,如果是这样,这些因素可能会在今年以后的时间对价格造成上升压力。在一些行业,供应链的中断似乎比原先预期的更持久,据说导致了更高的投入成本。

A number of participants remarked that supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages may not be resolved quickly and, if so, these factors could put upward pressure on prices beyond this year.They noted that in some industries, supply chain disruptions appeared to be more persistent than originally anticipated and reportedly had led to higher input costs.

一些与会者提到,在持续的财政和货币支持下,被抑制的需求、居民部门积累的超额储蓄以及疫苗接种的良好前景,可能会促进经济活动进一步复苏,使个人比目前的预期更快地回到劳动力队伍中。一些与会者提到,如果影响通胀的临时性因素比预期的更持久,那么通胀前景可能出现上行风险。

Some participants mentioned upside risks around the inflation outlook that could arise if temporary factors influencing inflation turned out to be more persistent than expected.

一些与会者强调,基于经济结果的政策指引有一个重要特点,政策的制定是将基于在实现委员会政策目标方面所观察到的进展(亦即Substantial Further Progress,笔者注),而非不确定的经济预测(而非SEP,笔者注)

有几位与会者对通货膨胀压力在明显到足以引起政策反应之前就上升到不受欢迎的水平的风险发表了评论。

some participants emphasized that an important feature of the outcome-based guidance was that policy would be set based on observed progress toward the Committee's goals, not on uncertain economic forecasts. However, a couple of participants commented on the risks of inflation pressures building up to unwelcome levels before they become sufficiently evident to induce a policy reaction.

评论
微信扫一扫
问题反馈更及时