美联储2021年7月议息会议纪要笔记

2021/08/19 03:57
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Taper只是刚刚临近,大家难免开始思考加息的节奏……
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有关金融市场近况以及公开市场的讨论

Longer-term yields fell notably over the period, with the declines concentrated in far-forward rates. A significant portion of these movements seemed to reflect changes in term premiums. Market participants pointed to a number of factors as driving the movement in longer-term yields, most prominently including Federal Reserve policy communications, investor positioning, and changes in expectations regarding the course of the pandemic.

提到长端收益率下降主要反映了期限溢价的变化。

Following the June meeting, overnight rates rose in line with the technical adjustment in administered rates and were relatively stable for the remainder of the period. Overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) take-up jumped by over $200 billion after the technical adjustment took effect, as government-sponsored enterprises moved balances held in unremunerated Federal Reserve deposit accounts into the higher-yielding ON RRP investments. Government money market funds also increased their participation in the facility amid a continued decline in Treasury bills outstanding and downward pressure on overnight rates. Overall, market participants reported that the technical adjustment went smoothly and that, with overnight rates having moved further away from zero, concerns about the functioning of short-term funding markets had diminished.

为什么隔夜逆回购用量上升?

联储的解释:6月技术性调息以后GSEs把资金从0利率的联储存款账户中放到了5个bps的ONRRP中,此外,短期国债的偿付(短债供应下降)以及短期利率的下行,导致大量的政府型货币基金把资金转入ONRRP中。ONRRP用量高说明对利率的技术性调整在发挥作用,隔夜利率也脱离的零利率下限。

Looking ahead, market participants were beginning to focus on the potential effects of changes in the Treasury General Account at the Federal Reserve and Treasury bill issuance over coming months in connection with the debt ceiling. The manager noted that, if a number of counterparties reached the per-counterparty limit on their ON RRP investments and downward pressure on overnight rates emerged, it may become appropriate to lift the limit.

市场参与者目前在关注什么?主要还是TGA账户的变化以及与债务上限有关的短债发行路径。(财政最重要!)

如果ONRRP用量又触达上限且导致隔夜利率又被往零利率水平压,那么联储可以取消ONRRP用量限制。换句话说,联储随时准备好无限吸纳超额流动性。

有关SRF以及FIMA

Finally, the manager summarized the proposed terms for the standing repurchase agreement (repo) facility (SRF) and the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility. In questions and comments following the manager's briefing, participants expressed broad support for the establishment of the SRF and FIMA Repo Facility. The vast majority of participants supported the proposed terms, al­though a few participants raised questions, including whether the proposed aggregate cap of $500 billion was necessary, whether the collateral eligible in SRF operations should be limited to Treasury securities only, and how the setting of the minimum bid rate in SRF operations would be expected to evolve over time relative to the primary credit rate and the interest on reserve balances rate. In general, participants viewed the SRF and FIMA Repo Facility as important new tools, serving in backstop roles, that would support effective policy implementation and smooth market functioning. Participants anticipated that the Committee would learn more about how these facilities operate over time and noted that it could adjust some parameters of the facilities on the basis of that experience.

与会者广泛支持,但也提出了几个问题,比如是否应该设定一个上限、抵押品条件是否应该限定于国债、SRF的利率设定应该处于当前利率走廊的什么位置。

Governor Bowman abstained from voting on the FIMA Repo Facility and noted that she would have preferred that the liquidity arrangements accessible to foreign official institutions be maintained only during periods of extraordinary financial market stress rather than through a standing facility.

Bowman投了弃权票,她认为FIMA这种工具应该只在市场出现流动性压力时提供,而非作为一种“常设”的工具存在。

有关市场最为关注的资产购买

The participants' discussion was preceded by staff presentations that reviewed the principal channels through which asset purchases exert effects on financial conditions and the economy, with a focus on the implications of these channels for the Committee's deliberations regarding future adjustments to the Federal Reserve's asset purchases. The presentations noted that, in the staff's standard empirical modeling framework, the effect of asset purchases on financial and economic conditions occurred primarily via their influence on the expected path of private-sector holdings of longer-term assets. In that framework, larger Federal Reserve holdings of these assets reduced private-sector holdings, exerting downward pressure on term premiums and, consequently, keeping longer-term interest rates and overall financial conditions more accommodative than they otherwise would be.

资产购买是如何发挥作用的?联储工作人员的解释:

美联储持有的资产数量增加,减少了私营部门的(国债/MBS)持有量,对期限溢价产生了向下的压力,因此,使长期利率和整体金融状况比原来更加宽松。

The staff noted that, because plausible alternative approaches to the tapering of asset purchases would likely not lead to significant differences in the expected path of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, these approaches would have similar financial and economic effects in the staff's standard framework. The presentations highlighted, however, that alternative tapering approaches could have significant financial and economic effects not fully captured in the staff's standard empirical framework. In particular, changes in asset purchases could be interpreted by the public as signaling a shift in the Committee's view of the economic outlook or in its overall policy strategy, with implications for the expected path of the federal funds rate. Changes in the flow of asset purchases could also influence yields, but this influence would likely be modest outside of periods of stressed financial market conditions.

Taper的影响?

资产购买的变化可能被公众解释为委员会对经济前景的看法或其整体政策战略的转变,对联邦基金利率的预期路径产生影响。资产购买流量的变化也可能影响收益率,但这种影响在金融市场状况紧张的时期之外可能是温和的

In their discussion of considerations related to asset purchases, various participants noted that these purchases were an important part of the monetary policy toolkit and a critical aspect of the Federal Reserve's response to the economic effects of the pandemic, supporting smooth financial market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, which aided the flow of credit to households and businesses and supported the recovery. Participants discussed a broad range of labor market and inflation indicators. All participants assessed that the economy had made progress toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals since the adoption of the guidance on asset purchases in December. Most participants judged that the Committee's standard of "substantial further progress" toward the maximum-employment goal had not yet been met. At the same time, most participants remarked that this standard had been achieved with respect to the price-stability goal. A few participants noted, however, that the transitory nature of this year's rise in inflation, as well as the recent declines in longer-term yields and in market-based measures of inflation compensation, cast doubt on the degree of progress that had been made toward the price-stability goal since December. Looking ahead, most participants noted that, provided that the economy were to evolve broadly as they anticipated, they judged that it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year because they saw the Committee's "substantial further progress" criterion as satisfied with respect to the price-stability goal and as close to being satisfied with respect to the maximum-employment goal. Various participants commented that economic and financial conditions would likely warrant a reduction in coming months. Several others indicated, however, that a reduction in the pace of asset purchases was more likely to become appropriate early next year because they saw prevailing conditions in the labor market as not being close to meeting the Committee's "substantial further progress" standard or because of uncertainty about the degree of progress toward the price-stability goal. Participants agreed that the Committee would provide advance notice before making changes to its balance sheet policy.

讨论就业与通胀的双重使命以及“实质性的进一步进展”

自12月通过有关资产购买政策的指引以来,经济已经朝着委员会的充分就业和价格稳定目标取得了进展。

大多数与会者认为,委员会在实现充分就业目标方面的 "实质性进一步进展"的标准尚未达到。

同时,大多数与会者表示,在价格稳定目标方面,这一标准已经达到。

然而,一些与会者指出,今年通胀上升的临时性性质,以及最近长期收益率和基于市场的通胀补偿指标的下降,使人怀疑自12月以来在实现价格稳定目标方面所取得的进展的程度(也就是怀疑通胀目标的实现不可持续)。

如果经济像预期那样发展,那么今年开始Taper是合适的,FOMC的通胀目标已经达标,就业目标则接近满足“实质性的进一步进展”的标准。(有几位认为还不达标,或者达标程度不可持续)

Participants expressed a range of views on the appropriate pace of tapering asset purchases once economic conditions satisfied the criterion laid out in the Committee's guidance. Many participants saw potential benefits in a pace of tapering that would end net asset purchases before the conditions currently specified in the Committee's forward guidance on the federal funds rate were likely to be met. At the same time, participants indicated that the standards for raising the target range for the federal funds rate were distinct from those associated with tapering asset purchases and remarked that the timing of those actions would depend on the course of the economy. Several participants noted that an earlier start to tapering could be accompanied by more gradual reductions in the purchase pace and that such a combination could mitigate the risk of an excessive tightening in financial conditions in response to a tapering announcement.

有关Taper之后的加息,许多与会者表示,在FOMC有关政策利率的前瞻性指引所设定的条件可能得到满足之前终结资产净购买有潜在的好处。(也就是说,加息条件达成前尽快Taper完比较好

提高联邦基金利率目标区间的标准(加息)与缩减资产购买(Taper)的标准不同。

Participants exchanged views on what the composition of asset purchases should be during the tapering process. Most participants remarked that they saw benefits in reducing the pace of net purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS proportionally in order to end both sets of purchases at the same time. These participants observed that such an approach would be consistent with the Committee's understanding that purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS had similar effects on broader financial conditions and played similar roles in the transmission of monetary policy, or that these purchases were not intended as credit allocation. Some of these participants remarked, however, that they welcomed further discussion of the appropriate composition of asset purchases during the tapering process. Several participants commented on the benefits that they saw in reducing agency MBS purchases more quickly than Treasury securities purchases, noting that the housing sector was exceptionally strong and did not need either actual or perceived support from the Federal Reserve in the form of agency MBS purchases or that such purchases could be interpreted as a type of credit allocation.

没必要先Taper MBS,机制是类似的。

Participants commented on other factors that were relevant for their consideration of future adjustments to the pace of asset purchases. Many participants noted that, when a reduction in the pace of asset purchases became appropriate, it would be important that the Committee clearly reaffirm the absence of any mechanical link between the timing of tapering and that of an eventual increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. A few participants suggested that the Committee would need to be mindful of the risk that a tapering announcement that was perceived to be premature could bring into question the Committee's commitment to its new monetary policy framework. With respect to the effects of the pandemic, several participants indicated that they would adjust their views on the appropriate path of asset purchases if the economic effects of new strains of the virus turned out to be notably worse than currently anticipated and significantly hindered progress toward the Committee's goals.

当减少资产购买的步伐变得适当时,委员会必须明确重申在Taper的时间点和最终提高联邦基金利率目标区间(加息)的时间点之间没有任何机械联系。(主要是之前市场参与者有认为说Taper完成到加息之间会有6个月的评估期,笔者注

有关经济的讨论

大致与美联储年中货币政策报告中所表达的情况一致,还是在强调供应链破坏的不确定性以及劳动力短缺的问题,此外,又强调了通胀存在上行风险。

提到了数字货币和稳定币:

In connection with the former set of risks, a few of these participants highlighted the fragility and the general lack of transparency associated with stablecoins, the importance of monitoring them closely, and the need to develop an appropriate regulatory framework to address any risks to financial stability associated with such products.

一些与会者强调了与稳定币相关的脆弱性和缺乏透明度的问题,联储有必要密切监测它们。需要制定一个适当的监管框架来解决与此类产品相关的任何金融稳定风险。

联储似乎也闻到了自己的框架风险:

A few other participants judged that monetary policy had limited ability to address the labor supply shortages and hiring difficulties currently constraining the level of employment. Several participants also commented that the pandemic might have caused longer-lasting changes in the labor market and that the pre-pandemic labor market conditions may not be the right benchmark against which the Committee should assess the progress toward its maximum-employment objective.

其他一些与会者认为,货币政策在解决目前制约就业水平的劳动力供应短缺和招聘困难方面的能力有限。(这个与上一轮紧缩期时费希尔副主席的想法一致,货币政策不能处理结构性失业)

一些与会者还评论说,疫情可能对劳动力市场造成了更持久的变化,疫情前的劳动力市场状况可能不是委员会评估实现充分就业目标的正确基准。(这也是非常重要的一点,因为联储新框架是根据上一轮的经验迭代的,具体请阅读本文

有关Taper节奏以及之后的紧缩路线,表达上更偏鹰派

Many participants remarked upon risk-management considerations when contemplating how and when to make changes to the Committee's pace of asset purchases. Some participants suggested that it would be prudent for the Committee to prepare for starting to reduce its pace of asset purchases relatively soon, in light of the risk that the recent high inflation readings could prove to be more persistent than they had anticipated and because an earlier start to reducing asset purchases would most likely enable additions to securities holdings to be concluded before the Committee judged it appropriate to raise the federal funds rate. A few participants expressed concerns that maintaining highly accommodative financial conditions might contribute to a further buildup in risk to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee's dual-mandate goals. In contrast, a few other participants suggested that preparations for reducing the pace of asset purchases should encompass the possibility that the reductions might not occur for some time and highlighted the risks that rising COVID-19 cases associated with the spread of the Delta variant could cause delays in returning to work and school and so damp the economic recovery. Several participants also remained concerned about the medium-term outlook for inflation and the possibility of the reemergence of significant downward pressure on inflation, especially in light of the recent decline in longer-term inflation compensation. In addition, several participants emphasized that there was considerable uncertainty about the likely resolution of the labor market shortages and supply bottlenecks and about the influence of pandemic-related developments on longer-run labor market and inflation dynamics. Those participants stressed that the Committee should be patient in assessing progress toward its goals and in announcing changes to its plans on asset purchases.

一些与会者建议,考虑到最近的高通胀可能比他们所预期的更为持久的风险,且较早启动Taper将很可能使继续购买资产的工作在委员会判断经济状况是否适合提高联邦基金利率(加息)之前结束,委员会准备相对较快地开始减少其资产购买的步伐是谨慎的。

一些与会者表示担心,保持高度宽松的金融条件可能会促使金融系统的风险进一步增加,从而可能阻碍委员会双重使命目标的实现。

相反的看法:

一些与会者还对通货膨胀的中期前景和通货膨胀可能重新出现巨大的下行压力表示关切。

此外,一些与会者强调,劳动力市场短缺和供应瓶颈的可能解决,以及与疫情有关的进展对长期劳动力市场和通货膨胀动态的影响,都有很大的不确定性。这些与会者强调,委员会在评估实现其目标的进展和宣布改变其资产购买计划方面应该有耐心。

有关什么时候加息:

Some participants emphasized that a decision to reduce the Committee's pace of asset purchases once the "substantial further progress" benchmark had been achieved would be fully consistent with the Committee's new monetary policy framework and would help foster the achievement of the Committee's longer-run objectives over time. A couple of participants also noted that a tapering of asset purchases did not amount to a tightening of the stance of monetary policy and instead only implied that additional monetary accommodation would be provided at a slower rate. Several participants emphasized that an announcement of a reduction in the Committee's pace of asset purchases should not be interpreted as the beginning of a predetermined course for raising the federal funds rate from its current level. Those participants stressed that the Committee's assessment regarding the appropriate timing of an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was separate from its current deliberations on asset purchases and would be subject to the higher standard, as laid out in the Committee's outcome-based guidance on the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, a couple of participants cautioned that it could be challenging for the public to disentangle deliberations about the two tools and that any decisions the Committee made on its asset purchases would likely influence the public's understanding of the Committee's other policy intentions, including with regard to future decisions concerning the target range for the federal funds rate.

一些与会者强调,宣布Taper不应被解释为联储开始考虑加息路径了,加息所要求的经济标准比Taper更高,正如“outcome-based”的前瞻指引中所表达的那样。

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