Mikko的点评

本月公布的纪要是2021年12月会议上的纪要。相比于12月会议的结果，联储公布的这份纪要所体现出来的鹰派程度要高得多。主要体现为以下几点：

此次会议上，虽然联储没有做出任何有关缩表的决定，但是其涉及缩表的讨论已经非常充分了。换句话说，只要当前的经济状况没有出现实质性的转变，那么基于12月会议的讨论是完全足以让联储在首次加息以后即刻开启缩表的。

根据联储在纪要内的表述，很有可能在1月的议息会议上联储就要更新自身的纲领性文件《货币政策正常化规则与计划》，这意味着联储正式开启紧缩周期前的市场沟通。

纪要内的表述表明，此轮缩表的节奏、力度，相比于上一轮缩表将更快更强。这意味着流动性的流失将更快，且资产负债表的缩减会更“实质性”。

与此同时，联储还强调了利率政策变化的重要性，即诸位不要小看加息的紧缩意味——在联储现有框架内，利率是最为主要的政策紧缩工具，而非资产负债表。

因此，我们需要做好联储快速退出宽松并转向紧缩，并且是节奏更快的紧缩的准备。请看纪要内的一些措辞——

一些与会者判断，在正常化进程中，大量（a significant amount）缩减资产负债表规模可能是适当的。
几乎所有委员都同意在首次加息后就开始推进缩表（be appropriate to initiate balance sheet runoff at some point after the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate）。
根据委员会判断，缩表的合适时机比上一轮经验时更接近首次加息（the appropriate timing of balance sheet runoff would likely be closer to that of policy rate liftoff than in the Committee's previous experience）。
目前的经济状况、高通胀以及大规模的资产负债表使得更快的政策利率正常化尤为必要（thus could warrant a potentially faster pace of policy rate normalization）。
许多与会者认为，缩表的合适速度可能会比上一次正常化期间的更快（Many participants judged that the appropriate pace of balance sheet runoff would likely be faster than it was during the previous normalization episode）。

最后，联储对去年推出的SRF工具抱有较高的期待，这也使得更快、更犀利的缩表显得顺理成章。有关SRF的点评，请阅读这篇文章。

一些与会者表示，随着资产负债表的规模接近其长期水平，SRF将有助于确保利率控制；一些与会者指出，SRF可以促进资产负债表比其他情况下更快地缩减；一些与会者提出，SRF的设立有可能在长期内减少对准备金的需求，这表明长期的资产负债表可能比其他情况下要小。

如果按照本份纪要的内容作为基准，那么我们假设鲍威尔“Taper完成之前不加息”的承诺是可信的。那么今年的紧缩步伐的基准情形可以设定为：

1月会议公布新版本的货币政策正常化规则与计划
3月Taper结束
5月初加息（25bps）并在货币政策正常化规则与计划中公开自己的再投资策略（预告缩表）
6月缩表

鬼故事版路径：

1月非农数据瞬间爆炸

1月会议公布新版本的货币政策正常化规则与计划并暗示3月终结Taper的同时就可以开始加息

3月宣布加息（50bps）并在货币政策正常化规则与计划中公开自己的再投资策略（预告缩表）

5月缩表

鸽派路径（在笔者脑中有多个版本，此处不赘述，反正现在也没人信）

缩表相关内容部分摘译

Participants began a discussion of a range of topics associated with the eventual normalization of the stance of monetary policy. The topics included the lessons learned from the Committee's previous experience with policy normalization, alternative approaches for removing policy accommodation, the timing and sequencing of policy normalization actions, and the appropriate size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in the longer run. They agreed that their discussion at this meeting would be helpful background for the Committee's future decisions regarding policy normalization. No decisions regarding the Committee's approach were made at the meeting.

开门见山，讨论了有关货币政策正常化的议题，涵盖上一轮的经验、移除宽松的替代方法、正常化行动的时间点与顺序以及长期资产负债表的合意规模及结构。但只是讨论而已，本次会议没有相关的政策决定被做出。

The participants' discussion was preceded by staff presentations. The staff reviewed the previous normalization episode, including how the Committee commenced normalization by raising the target range for the federal funds rate and then reducing the Federal Reserve's asset holdings in a gradual and predictable manner, as well as the timing of these steps. The staff then discussed some of the channels through which policy rate and balance sheet actions affect financial conditions and alternative ways these tools could be deployed to reduce policy accommodation in support of the Committee's macroeconomic goals. The staff presentation included assessments of the implications for the yield curve of alternative settings of the two tools, the relative uncertainty of the effects of each tool, and the challenges associated with conducting and communicating policy with multiple tools. Finally, the staff reviewed the experience of foreign central banks with policy normalization.

此后，联储的工作人员开始放PPT回顾上一轮的政策正常化。上一轮的政策化节奏是先加息后缩表，并且缩表的过程是“渐进并可预测的”（gradual and predictable）。随后讨论的便是加息和缩表对金融状况的影响渠道，并探讨两大政策工具的替代方案，以及这些方案可以怎样移除宽松来满足FOMC的宏观经济目标。PPT的内容包括评估两种政策工具的替代方案对收益率曲线的影响，每个工具效果的相对不确定性，以及使用多重工具实施和沟通政策的相关挑战。最后，工作人员回顾了外国中央银行在政策正常化方面的经验。

Participants judged that several aspects of the previous approach remained applicable in the current environment. In particular, they noted that the principles and plans underlying policy normalization were communicated in advance of any decisions or actions, which enhanced the public's understanding and thus the effectiveness of monetary policy during that period. At the same time, participants remarked that the previous experience highlighted the benefits of maintaining the flexibility to adjust the details of the approach to normalization in response to economic and financial developments. Participants generally emphasized that, as in the previous normalization episode and as expressed in the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, changes in the target range for the federal funds rate should be the Committee's primary means for adjusting the stance of monetary policy in support of its maximum-employment and price-stability objectives. This preference reflected the view that there is less uncertainty about the effects of changes in the federal funds rate on the economy than about the effects of changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Moreover, participants stated that the federal funds rate is a more familiar tool to the general public and therefore is advantageous for communication purposes. A few participants also noted that when the federal funds rate is away from the effective lower bound (ELB), the Committee could more nimbly change interest rate policy than balance sheet policy in response to economic conditions.

首先强调了货币政策正常化规则与计划在事前就公开的重要性——也就是上一轮周期时在2014年9月所做的那样。简言之，货币政策正常化规则与计划是纲领性的紧缩路线图文件。其二，要保持灵活性，也就是随时可以调整。其三，利率是主要政策工具，联邦基金利率的变化对经济的影响的不确定性要小于美联储资产负债表变化的影响。联邦基金利率是普通公众更熟悉的工具，因此对沟通来说是有利的。最后，当政策利率远离零利率下界的时候，FOMC可以更灵活地改变利率政策而不是资产负债表政策来应对经济状况。

Participants also discussed some key differences between current economic conditions and those that prevailed during the previous episode and remarked that the Committee would have to take these differences into account in removing policy accommodation. Most notably, participants remarked that the current economic outlook was much stronger, with higher inflation and a tighter labor market than at the beginning of the previous normalization episode. They also observed that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was much larger, both in dollar terms and relative to nominal gross domestic product (GDP), than it was at the end of the third large-scale asset purchase program in late 2014. Participants noted that the current weighted average maturity of the Federal Reserve's Treasury holdings was shorter than at the beginning of the previous normalization episode. Some observed that, as a result, depending on the size of any caps put on the pace of runoff, the balance sheet could potentially shrink faster than last time if the Committee followed its previous approach in phasing out the reinvestment of maturing Treasury securities and principal payments on agency MBS. However, several participants raised concerns about vulnerabilities in the Treasury market and how those vulnerabilities could affect the appropriate pace of balance sheet normalization. A couple of participants noted that the SRF could help to mitigate such concerns. Participants also judged the Federal Reserve to be better positioned for normalization than in the past, as the ample-reserves framework and the Federal Reserve's current interest rate control tools, including interest on reserve balances and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility, are in place and working well. Some participants judged that a significant amount of balance sheet shrinkage could be appropriate over the normalization process, especially in light of abundant liquidity in money markets and elevated usage of the ON RRP facility.

讨论经济状况的异同，本轮更强。相比于上一次正常化的开启，目前的通胀更高，劳动力市场更紧。资产负债表规模更是翻了一倍多。如果采取上一轮的缩表策略，那么资产负债表的缩减会更快。一些委员因此担心国债市场会暴露在脆弱性中，可能影响缩表进程。但现在有了SRF，所以问题没有上一轮来的大。目前正常化的推进更游刃有余（基于利率地板体系框架以及充足准备金框架）。一些与会者判断，在正常化进程中，大量（a significant amount）缩减资产负债表规模可能是适当的，特别是考虑到货币市场充裕的流动性和ONRRP的高使用率。

Participants had an initial discussion about the appropriate conditions and timing for starting balance sheet runoff relative to raising the federal funds rate from the ELB. They also discussed how this relative timing might differ from the previous experience, in which balance sheet runoff commenced almost two years after policy rate liftoff when the normalization of the federal funds rate was judged to be well under way. Almost all participants agreed that it would likely be appropriate to initiate balance sheet runoff at some point after the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. However, participants judged that the appropriate timing of balance sheet runoff would likely be closer to that of policy rate liftoff than in the Committee's previous experience. They noted that current conditions included a stronger economic outlook, higher inflation, and a larger balance sheet and thus could warrant a potentially faster pace of policy rate normalization. They emphasized that the decision to initiate runoff would be data dependent.

正常化的时间点和先后顺序问题。上一轮是加息后两年才开始缩表。但这一轮肯定不同，几乎所有委员都同意在首次加息后就开始推进缩表。根据委员会判断，缩表的合适时机比上一轮经验时更接近首次加息。目前的经济状况、高通胀以及大规模的资产负债表使得更快的政策利率正常化尤为必要。同时强调启动加息依赖数据。

Some participants commented that removing policy accommodation by relying more on balance sheet reduction and less on increases in the policy rate could help limit yield curve flattening during policy normalization. A few of these participants raised concerns that a relatively flat yield curve could adversely affect interest margins for some financial intermediaries, which may raise financial stability risks. However, a couple of other participants referenced staff analysis and previous experience in noting that many factors can affect longer-dated yields, making it difficult to judge how a different policy mix would affect the shape of the yield curve.

一些与会者评论说，在政策正常化过程中，更依靠缩表而较少地依靠提高政策利率来消除政策宽松，有助于限制收益率曲线的扁平化。其中有几位与会者提出，相对平坦的收益率曲线可能对一些金融中介机构的息差产生不利影响，这可能会提高金融稳定风险。然而，其他几位与会者提到了工作人员的分析和以往的经验，指出许多因素会影响较长期限的收益率，因此很难判断不同的政策组合将如何影响收益率曲线的形状。

Many participants judged that the appropriate pace of balance sheet runoff would likely be faster than it was during the previous normalization episode. Many participants also judged that monthly caps on the runoff of securities could help ensure that the pace of runoff would be measured and predictable, particularly given the shorter weighted average maturity of the Federal Reserve's Treasury security holdings.

许多与会者认为，缩表的合适速度可能会比上一次正常化期间的更快。许多与会者还认为，对持仓缩减的每月上限可以帮助确保削减的速度是可衡量和可预测的，尤其考虑到美联储所持国债的加权平均期限较短。

Participants discussed considerations regarding the longer-run size of the balance sheet consistent with the efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy in an ample-reserves regime. Participants noted that the current size of the balance sheet is elevated and would likely remain so for some time after the process of normalizing the balance sheet was under way. Several participants noted that the level of reserves that would ultimately be needed to implement monetary policy effectively is uncertain, because the underlying demand for reserves by banks is time varying. In light of this uncertainty and the Committee's previous experience, a couple of participants expressed a preference to allow for a substantial buffer level of reserves to support interest rate control. Participants noted that it would be important to carefully monitor developments in money markets as the level of reserves fell to help inform the Committee's eventual assessment of the appropriate level for the balance sheet in the longer run. Some participants expressed the view that the SRF would help ensure interest rate control as the size of the balance sheet approached its longer-run level; several participants noted that the SRF could facilitate a faster runoff of the balance sheet than might otherwise be the case; several participants raised the possibility that the establishment of the SRF could reduce the demand for reserves in the longer run, suggesting that the longer-run balance sheet could be smaller than otherwise.

与会者讨论了有关资产负债表的长期规模的考量，该规模亟需符合在充足准备金制度下高效并有效执行货币政策的要求。与会者注意到，目前的资产负债表规模过大，而且在资产负债表正常化进程开始后的一段时间内可能会保持这种规模。一些与会者指出，有效执行货币政策最终需要的准备金水平是不确定的，因为银行对准备金的基本需求是随时间变化的。鉴于这种不确定性和委员会以往的经验，几位与会者表示倾向于允许大量的准备金缓冲水平以支持联储对利率的控制。与会者指出，随着准备金水平的下降，必须仔细监测货币市场的发展，以帮助委员会最终评估资产负债表在长期内的适当水平。一些与会者表示，随着资产负债表的规模接近其长期水平，SRF将有助于确保利率控制；一些与会者指出，SRF可以促进资产负债表比其他情况下更快地缩减；一些与会者提出，SRF的设立有可能在长期内减少对准备金的需求，这表明长期的资产负债表可能比其他情况下要小。

Participants also discussed the composition of the Federal Reserve's asset holdings. Consistent with the previous normalization principles, some participants expressed a preference for the Federal Reserve's asset holdings to consist primarily of Treasury securities in the longer run. To achieve such a composition, some participants favored reinvesting principal from agency MBS into Treasury securities relatively soon or letting agency MBS run off the balance sheet faster than Treasury securities.

Participants welcomed additional analysis from the staff on issues related to normalization and agreed that continuing their deliberations at upcoming meetings would be useful.

与会者还讨论了美联储所持资产的构成问题。与之前的正常化原则一致，一些与会者表示倾向于美联储的资产持有量在较长时间内主要由国债组成。为了实现这样的构成，一些与会者赞成相对较快地将机构MBS的本金再投资于国债，或者让机构MBS比国债更快地从资产负债表上消失。

与会者欢迎工作人员对与正常化有关的问题进行更多的分析，并同意在即将举行的会议上继续进行审议将是有益的。