Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

关于分层利率、新任行长、废除现金和货币政策正常化

2019/04/23 09:52
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对照中文英文原文
欧洲央行执行委员会成员科雷在2019年4月接受的采访。

Mr Cœuré, the fire at Notre-Dame was a catastrophe for France and Europe. My sincere condolences! We hope that the cathedral can be rebuilt as quickly and as beautifully as possible.

Cœuré先生,Notre-Dame的火灾是法国和欧洲的灾难。我诚挚的哀悼!我们希望大教堂能够尽快快速地重建。

I found it all very moving; I lived in Paris for twenty years. But what also moved me greatly and impressed me was the great sympathy and solidarity from the whole of Europe. Notre-Dame is the most visited historic building in Europe – it embodies many of Europe’s values. It is good to see that there was such a strong sense of commonality after the disaster.

我觉得这一切都很动人;我在巴黎生活了二十年。但令我印象深刻的是给我留下深刻印象的是整个欧洲人的极大同情和团结。巴黎圣母院是欧洲访问量最大的历史建筑 - 它体现了欧洲的许多价值观。很高兴看到灾后有如此强烈的共同感。

Let’s turn to monetary policy. Complaints about the ECB’s negative interest rate on deposits have increased significantly. Each year Europe’s banks are paying around EUR 7.5 billion in “penalty interest”. Mario Draghi has indicated that a tiering of the negative interest rate could be considered in order to relieve the burden on them. Would you be in favour of that?

让我们转向货币政策。有关欧洲央行存款负利率的投诉大幅增加。每年欧洲的银行都以“罚款利息”支付约75亿欧元。马里奥德拉吉表示,可以考虑对负利率进行分层,以减轻他们的负担。你会赞成吗?

I find the intensity of the discussion surprising, because it focuses on a narrow aspect of our monetary policy. The debate about interest rates being low for long should be broader. We understand the concerns of those affected by the harmful side effects of very low interest rates. These are increasing with time. There are possible concerns about financial stability; asset prices are rising. Bank profitability is also a concern. However, the negative deposit rates are really not the biggest problem. Their contribution to low bank profits is limited. Banks should think more about their costs.

我发现讨论的激烈程度令人惊讶,因为它侧重于我们货币政策的一个狭窄方面。关于利率长期处于低位的争论应该更广泛。我们理解那些受极低利率有害副作用影响的人的担忧。这些随着时间而增加。金融稳定性可能存在问题;资产价格正在上涨。银行盈利能力也是一个问题。然而,负存款利率确实不是最大的问题。他们对低银行利润的贡献是有限的。银行应该更多地考虑他们的成本。

Does that mean that you are not in favour of a softer, tiered negative interest rate?

这是否意味着您不赞成较软的分层负利率?

No, it doesn’t. It is a useful, relevant discussion that we have had before and should revisit regularly. Japan and Switzerland have tiered systems. But the negative deposit rate is not the most important reason why interest rates are so low. If we change something, there has to be a monetary policy reason for doing so. At the current juncture, I do not see the monetary policy argument for tiering. However, we must keep a close eye on developments. Those who would profit from tiering are, above all, banks with high excess liquidity, of which many are located in France and Germany where bank lending is already running high. Thus there is no evidence so far that the negative deposit rate is bad for lending. On the contrary.

不,不是。这是我们以前进行过的有用的相关讨论,应该定期重新讨论。日本和瑞士有分层系统。但负存款利率并不是利率如此之低的最重要原因。如果我们改变某些事情,就必须有货币政策理由这样做。目前,我没有看到关于分层的货币政策论点。但是,我们必须密切关注事态发展。那些从分层中获利的人首先是流动性过剩的银行,其中很多都位于法国和德国,那里的银行贷款已经很高。因此,到目前为止,没有证据表明负存款利率不利于贷款。反之。

The Governing Council of the ECB says that key interest rates will remain as low as now until at least the end of 2019. However, some bank analysts do not expect the first interest rate rise until late 2020.

欧洲央行管理委员会表示,至少在2019年底之前,关键利率将保持在现在的最低水平。然而,一些银行分析师预计直到2020年底才能首次加息。

We are not tied to such market expectations; they are an important input, but we are not led by them.

我们并不依赖于这样的市场预期;它们是一个重要的输入,但我们不是由它们领导的。

Are those who do not expect an interest rate rise until later completely wrong?

那些不期望利率上升直到后来完全错误的人呢?

Well, that reflects an assessment of the downside risks which is different to that of the Governing Council.

那么,这反映了对与理事会不同的下行风险的评估。

There has been a lot of bad news on the economy recently: sentiment indexes and industrial new orders have fallen. How bad is the economic situation in the euro area?

最近经济出现了很多坏消息:情绪指数和工业新订单下降。欧元区的经济形势有多糟糕?

I have mixed feelings. On one hand, the slowdown in growth is probably only temporary. We expect growth to return in the second half of the year. There are no grounds for overly gloomy thoughts. On the other hand, it is very uncertain how long and how strong the downturn will be. The reasons for the uncertainty are political: the trade tensions stemming from the United States, and also Brexit to some extent. Growth will only return in the second half of the year if there are signs of a resolution to the trade dispute.

这很复杂。一方面,增长放缓可能只是暂时的。我们预计下半年将实现增长。没有理由过于悲观的想法。另一方面,经济衰退的持续时间和强度是多么不确定。不确定性的原因是政治性的:美国的贸易紧张局势以及英国退欧在某种程度上。如果有解决贸易争端的迹象,增长只会在下半年回归。

The ECB’s growth forecast for this year in the euro area is 1.1%, and next year 1.6%.

欧洲央行今年对欧元区的增长预测为1.1%,明年为1.6%。

Yes, that is the current staff forecast, which will be revised in June.

是的,这是当前的员工预测,将在6月进行修订。

Germany is very dependent on exports; it is particularly hard hit by the weakness in trade. Is a recession – at least according to the technical definition of two negative quarters – thinkable?

德国非常依赖出口;贸易疲软尤其严重。经济衰退 - 至少根据两个负面季度的技术定义 - 是否可以想象?

No, we do not expect a recession. But it is true that the economic slowdown in Germany is stronger than we had expected. There were temporary factors, such as the problems with emission tests in the car industry. Now things depend mainly on growth in emerging economies, above all China. The German export-oriented growth model also entails risks. It was very advantageous during the upturn of the global economy, now things are not so good.

不,我们不预期德国会出现经济衰退。但德国的经济放缓确实比我们预期的要强。存在临时因素,例如汽车行业的排放测试问题。现在,事情主要取决于新兴经济体的增长,尤其是中国。德国以出口为导向的增长模式也带来了风险。在全球经济好转期间,这是非常有利的,现在事情并不那么好。

Would you advise the German Government to increase domestic demand?

您是否会建议德国政府增加国内需求?

The ECB does not lecture the German Government. In its “European Semester” reports, the European Commission made it clear that Germany should balance its growth and increase domestic demand. That could be done, above all, through more investment, which would be good for the Germany economy. In Europe there is much discussion about the level of budget deficits. Of course the amount of the deficit is important for keeping debt under control, but it would be at least as important to talk more about the composition of expenditure. Most countries, including my home country France and also Italy, have no fiscal room for manoeuvre for more spending. However, through reallocation, the expenditure could become more growth-friendly.

欧洲央行没有向德国政府讲课。在其“欧洲学期”报告中,欧盟委员会明确表示德国应平衡其增长并增加国内需求。最重要的是,这可以通过更多投资来实现,这对德国经济有利。在欧洲,关于预算赤字水平的讨论很多。当然,赤字数额对于控制债务至关重要,但谈论更多有关支出构成的问题至少同样重要。大多数国家,包括我的祖国法国和意大利,都没有增加支出的财政空间。但是,通过重新分配,支出可以变得更加有利于增长。

To return to the more technical side of the ECB’s policy: you gave banks four-year loans in the order of hundreds of billions of euro, so-called “TLTROs”, which will soon expire. For this there will be follow-on loans. Again with such favourable conditions, even in part a negative interest rate?

为了回到欧洲央行政策的技术方面:欧洲央行向银行提供了数千亿欧元的四年期贷款,即所谓的“TLTRO”,即将到期。为此,将有后续贷款。在这种有利条件下,甚至部分是负利率?

The TLTRO loans are not a subsidy for the banks; they are a monetary policy instrument aimed at ensuring adequate lending. The Governing Council will presumably decide on the conditions, including the interest rate, in June. The remarkable progress in lending to the real economy will have to be taken into account. The situation today is very different to 2016, when we issued the last TLTROs to actively support lending. However, we want to protect this achievement.

TLTRO贷款不是对银行的补贴;它们是旨在确保充足贷款的货币政策工具。理事会可能会在6月份决定条件,包括利率。必须考虑到向实体经济提供贷款方面取得的显着进展。今天的情况与2016年非常不同,当时我们发布了最后一个TLTRO来积极支持贷款。但是,我们希望保护这一成就。

So the conditions no longer need to be so generous?

那么条件不再需要如此慷慨吗?

The Governing Council will decide on that based on economic data.

理事会将根据经济数据对此作出决定。

The key measure of the success of the ECB’s policy is price stability. Contrary to what the ECB repeatedly forecasts, the rate of inflation remains below the target; the curve is not upward-sloping, but is flat. Inflation could still remain very low for a long time. And that is in spite of the fact that wages are rising significantly. Consumer prices are not following. Is that a puzzle?

欧洲央行政策成功的关键衡量标准是价格稳定。与欧洲央行反复预测的情况相反,通胀率仍低于目标水平;曲线不是向上倾斜的,而是平坦的。长期以来,通货膨胀仍然可能仍然很低。尽管工资大幅上涨,但这仍然存在。消费者价格没有跟随。这是一个谜题吗?

It is half a puzzle. At least wages are now rising, following the fall in unemployment, as we had expected. But what is missing is the transmission from wage costs to product and consumer prices. That is a bit puzzling. Businesses are apparently accepting narrower profit margins rather than raising prices. That may be because they do not think demand is strong enough yet and because of strong global competition. But that cannot go on forever. At some point they will raise prices. However, the most recent slowdown in the economy is a setback.

这是一个谜题。正如我们预期的那样,在失业率下降之后,至少薪资正在上涨。但缺少的是从薪资成本到产品和消费者价格的转变。这有点令人费解。企业显然接受的是较窄的利润率,而不是提高价格。这可能是因为他们认为需求不够强大,并且因为全球竞争激烈。但这不可能永远持续下去。在某些时候,他们会提高价格。然而,最近经济放缓是一个挫折。

This autumn, ECB President Mario Draghi will step down after eight years in office. So far the ECB has had a Dutchman, a Frenchman and an Italian at its helm, but so far no president from Germany. Can you understand why many Germans want the next President of the ECB to come from here?

今年秋天,欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉将在执政八年后卸任。到目前为止,欧洲央行已经有一位荷兰人,一位法国人和一位意大利人掌舵,但到目前为止还没有来自德国的主席。你能理解为什么许多德国人希望下一任欧洲央行行长来自这里吗?

I understand that, but it’s the wrong way of looking at things. The choice of ECB President should not be based on nationality, but on competence.

我理解这一点,但这是看待事物的错误方式。欧洲央行行长的选择不应以国籍为基础,而应以能力为基础。

But we should not pretend to be so naïve as to think that political and national considerations do not play a role!

但我们不应该假装天真地认为政治和国家的考虑不起作用!

Yes, of course, I understand the political process. But the selection should be based on competence. And, if you ask me, I would also be happy to see a woman at the helm of the ECB. Ultimately, there are various criteria – and it is a political decision.

是的,当然,我理解政治过程。但选择应基于能力。而且,如果你问我,我也很高兴看到一位女士掌舵欧洲央行。最终,有各种标准 - 这是一个政治决定。

So, what must an ECB President have in terms of qualities, abilities and knowledge?

那么,欧洲央行行长在质量,能力和知识方面必须具备什么?

You will have to ask the European Heads of State or Government; they decide that. What I would say as a central banker is that you have to be a good central bank manager, you must have a strong background in and knowledge of economics, and you must understand the capital markets – without being a hostage to market expectations – and you should uphold the independence of the ECB. And you need to have the ability to lead and to make compromises.

你将不得不问欧洲国家元首或政府首脑;他们决定这一点。作为一名中央银行家,我要说的是你必须要成为一名优秀的中央银行家,你必须具备丰富的经济背景和知识,而且你必须了解资本市场 - 而不是市场预期的人质 - 而你应该维护欧洲央行的独立性。而且你需要具备领导和妥协的能力。

You have ambitions yourself. Some say you have a 10 percent chance of becoming ECB President. However, you are on the Executive Board, and it is crystal clear in the EU Treaty that a re-appointment of Executive Board members is prohibited.

你自己有野心。有人说你有10%的机会成为欧洲央行行长。但是,您是执行委员会成员,欧盟条约中明确规定禁止重新任命执行委员会成员。

I won’t give any legal interpretations. That is up to the EU Heads of State or Government. I have worked for Europe for the last seven years. I also want to continue to serve Europe. The central bank is a place where I can be useful. But, of course, I can also be useful elsewhere.

我不会给出任何法律解释。这取决于欧盟国家元首或政府首脑。我在过去的七年里一直在欧洲工作。我也想继续为欧洲服务。中央银行是我可以有用的地方。但是,当然,我也可以在其他地方使用。

The ECB leadership has apparently already obtained legal advice which played out the case of you briefly stepping down and then being “re-”appointed as President. Would that not be a blatant ploy? A breach of the spirit of the rules?

欧洲央行领导层显然已经获得了法律建议,这些建议证明了你曾短暂地辞职,然后被“重新”任命为总统。这不是一个明目张胆的伎俩吗?违背了规则的精神?

I am not a lawyer.

我不是律师。

But you would like to do it?

但你想这样做吗?

Who wouldn’t? But it is not a position that you apply for. We must respectfully wait to see what the politicians decide.

谁不愿意?但这不是你申请的职位。我们必须恭敬地等待政治家们的决定。

The next President of the ECB will have no easy task. He …

欧洲央行的下任主席将不会轻松完成任务。他......

He or she …

他还是她 …

He or she must drive forward the “normalisation” of monetary policy. What is that, actually? What is normal?

他或她必须推动货币政策的“正常化”。那是什么,实际上呢?什么是正常的?

An interesting question. A lot of thought is given to that at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Federal Open Market Committee of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve System, asks its members explicitly for their estimate of the longer-term development of interest rates. We don’t do that. We in Europe are also lagging far behind the US economic cycle. I don’t know what the long-term aim for interest rates in Europe should be. But for me, “normalisation” means that the key interest rates are again the main instrument of monetary policy – as they were before the crisis. We are not there yet. The bond purchase programme – “quantitative easing” – is not yet over, because we are reinvesting the proceeds from the maturing bonds. Each month we reinvest a substantial sum. Second, the “forward guidance” is now our main instrument; steering the market through words, not through interest rate changes. We are not abandoning the prospect of normalisation, but it has been delayed by the economic downturn.

一个有趣的问题。国际货币基金组织(IMF)对此有很多想法。美联储的联邦公开市场委员会,联邦储备系统,明确询问其成员对利率长期发展的估计。我们不这样做。我们欧洲也远远落后于美国经济周期。我不知道欧洲的利率长期目标应该是什么。但对我来说,“正常化”意味着关键利率再次成为货币政策的主要工具 - 就像危机前一样。我们还没有。债券购买计划 - “量化宽松” - 尚未结束,因为我们正在对到期债券的收益进行再投资。每个月我们都会再投入大笔资金。第二,“前进指导”现在是我们的主要工具;通过言语指导市场,而不是通过利率变化。我们并没有放弃正常化的前景,但它已被经济衰退推迟。

In the medium term, should the ECB reduce its balance sheet again?

从中期来看,欧洲央行是否应该再次减少其资产负债表?

Yes, like the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve kept its bond holdings for a considerable time after the end of the net purchases and then started winding down its holdings. But in Europe we have not got that far yet.

是的,就像美联储一样。美联储在净购买结束后的相当长一段时间内持有债券,然后开始减持其持股。但在欧洲,我们还没有那么远。

With all due respect for your optimism regarding the economy, what will happen if there is a really strong downturn, perhaps even another full-blown recession? What could the ECB actually still do?

在充分尊重您对经济的乐观态度的情况下,如果真的出现强劲衰退,甚至可能出现另一次全面衰退,会发生什么?欧洲央行究竟还能做些什么?

The best answer is that we have managed in the past. Every time there has been a major challenge, we have found a solution. I am confident that, in the event of a shock, we will find a solution in our toolkit that is within our mandate. Monetary financing is prohibited. But I would caution against the view that only the ECB should have to react to a crisis. We do not know what the next crisis will look like. Every crisis is different. There will be another crisis; there will always be more crises. It would be very unwise to think that the next crisis will be managed by the ECB without any measures having to be taken by governments. The burden of tackling crises must not rest on the shoulders of the ECB alone.

最好的答案是我们过去曾经管理过。每当遇到重大挑战时,我们都找到了解决方案。我相信,如果发生冲击,我们将在我们的工具包中找到一个符合我们职责范围的解决方案。货币融资是被禁止的。但我对只有欧洲央行应该对危机作出反应的观点保持谨慎。我们不知道下一次危机会是什么样子。每次危机都是不同的。会有另一场危机;永远会有更多的危机。如果认为下一次危机将由欧洲央行管理而不需要政府采取任何措施,那将是非常不明智的。解决危机的负担不应仅仅依靠欧洲央行的支持。

However, you have already used up most of your ammunition: key interest rates are at zero; the bond purchases have almost reached the limits you set yourselves. What more could you do?

但是,你已经用完了大部分弹药:主要利率为零;债券购买几乎达到了限制。你还能做什么?

We do not answer this question because it all depends on the type of crisis that we are facing at the time. We have not had a discussion about this in the Governing Council either. Experience has shown, however, that we have a broad range of instruments.

我们不回答这个问题,因为这完全取决于我们当时面临的危机类型。我们也没有在理事会讨论这个问题。然而,经验表明,我们拥有广泛的工具。

Do the possible instruments also include a devaluation of cash, to make even lower negative interest rates possible? After all, there are already working papers on this subject in the IMF and the ECB. What would citizens make of that?

可能的工具是否还包括现金贬值,以实现更低的负利率?毕竟,国际货币基金组织和欧洲央行已经就这一主题提交了工作文件。公民将如何做到这一点?

Simple answer: it is up to the citizens to decide whether they want to use cash. For instance, Sweden is moving in the direction of a cashless society; in the euro area countries, demand for cash is still growing. The central banks are working on digital central bank money as an alternative to cash. We are investigating that. But we do not want to abolish cash.

简单回答:由市民决定是否要使用现金。例如,瑞典正朝着无现金社会的方向发展;在欧元区国家,对现金的需求仍在增长。中央银行正在研究数字中央银行资金作为现金的替代方案。我们正在调查这个问题。但我们不想废除现金。

The question was a different one. The academic working papers of the IMF and the ECB are not about the abolition of cash, but a devaluation through negative interest rates, a kind of penalty interest on banknotes.

问题是另一个问题。国际货币基金组织和欧洲央行的学术工作文件不是取消现金,而是通过负利率贬值,这是对纸币的一种惩罚性利息。

That is not a new idea. Silvio Gesell came up with it 100 years ago. But it is not a practical discussion for us.

这不是一个新想法。 Silvio Gesell在100年前提出了这个问题。但这对我们来说不是一个实际的讨论。

In the forthcoming European elections, anti-EU, anti-euro and populist parties will probably gain seats. Are you worried that the EU and EU institutions will be weakened by that?

在即将举行的欧洲选举中,反欧盟,反欧元和民粹主义政党可能会获得席位。您是否担心欧盟和欧盟机构会被削弱?

There will probably be a more fragmented Parliament. The legislative decision-making process will be more difficult. Politics as a whole will be more difficult and more complex. We hope nonetheless that European Economic and Monetary Union will be completed. A push towards a capital markets union is needed.

议会可能会更加支离破碎。立法决策过程将更加困难。政治作为一个整体将更加困难和复杂。尽管如此,我们希望欧洲经济和货币联盟能够完成。需要推动资本市场联盟。

What is that exactly?

资本市场联盟究竟是什么?

A capital markets union means greater integration of the capital markets; a better cross-border allocation of savings. By way of a specific example, a German company investing in French or Spanish companies and vice versa. We don’t see enough of that yet. Capital should go where it is most productive.

资本市场联盟意味着资本市场更加一体化;更好的跨境储蓄分配。举一个具体的例子,一家德国公司投资法国或西班牙公司,反之亦然。我们还没有看到足够的。资本应该去最有生产力的地方。

A few years ago, Wolfgang Schäuble, as Finance Minister, once complained that the ECB’s low interest rate policy was 50% responsible for the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Germany. Perhaps he wasn’t being entirely serious but the fact is that many citizens are frustrated about the low interest rates which, for example, make retirement provision more difficult. Has the ECB played a part in the success of populist parties?

几年前,作为财政部长的沃尔夫冈·朔伊布勒曾抱怨说,欧洲央行的低利率政策对德国替代德国(AfD)党的崛起负有50%的责任。也许他并不完全认真,但事实是很多公民对低利率感到沮丧,例如,使退休金提供更加困难。欧洲央行是否参与了民粹主义政党的成功?

When the ECB is given the blame for political outcomes, that says more about politics than it does about the ECB. We clearly have a political framework in Europe that has not delivered what the people expect; not the growth, the employment nor the income that people in many countries want. The ECB is an easy scapegoat. Our tower here in Frankfurt is highly visible; many eyes are on us. Yes, we must take into consideration the side effects of our policy, the effects on savers, on house prices, etc. We take that very seriously. But the bottom line is that our low interest rate policy has benefited savers more than it has harmed them, since savers are also workers and borrowers. And in the housing market the low interest rate has also helped encourage more construction. The criticism is often too simplistic.

当欧洲央行被赋予政治结果的责任时,这更多地涉及政治而不是欧洲央行。我们显然在欧洲有一个政治框架,没有达到人们的期望;不是许多国家人民想要的增长,就业和收入。欧洲央行很容易成为替罪羊。我们在法兰克福的大厦非常明显;很多眼睛都在我们身上。是的,我们必须考虑到我们政策的副作用,对储蓄者的影响,房价等等。我们非常重视这一点。但最重要的是,由于储蓄者也是工人和借款人,我们的低利率政策使储蓄者受益更多,而不是伤害他们。在住房市场,低利率也有助于鼓励更多的建筑业。批评往往过于简单化。

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